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William Priest
(@william-priest)
Active Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 6
12/02/2020 2:50 pm  

1. Back

2. 1 hour

3. After about 8 losing bets in sequence.

4. Prefer class 2 or higher which points me to Saturdays and the festival days.


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1376
13/02/2020 4:31 pm  

Thank you for your answers, I am putting every answer into its own thread so I can keep track of them and we can work together. Please use this thread to keep me updated and ask any questions.

From what you've said, you're only looking at a handful of bets a week, maybe just three or four? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I am assuming that you have 1 hour a day to find these three or four bets per week, again if that is an incorrect assumption please let me know.

To place back bets and have an expected losing streak of eight or less (please remember that you could get this, followed by one winner, and then the streak happens again) you are going to need to be winning around 50% of your bets. This is based on roughly 200 bets per year.

It's possible, but you're going to be betting on short odds horses. Are you happy betting on these types of runners?

We need to make sure that the structure is correct before we start choose a strategy in order to make sure we can hit the goals.

It's much easier to bet on shorter odds horses than to be comfortable with longer losing runs, but it means your ROI may be a bit lower. Personally I will take an average ROI of 5% or higher, and stop tinkering at that point as that's a good return. We may be able to get higher than this, but it's going to closer to this.

If all this will work for you, then we can look at an approach which uses your time to highlight very strong horses which may have been slightly overpriced.

I'll look forward to hearing from you.


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William Priest
(@william-priest)
Active Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 6
21/02/2020 3:21 pm  

Hi Michael, 

Thanks for your input.

From what you've said, you're only looking at a handful of bets a week, maybe just three or four? Please correct me if I'm wrong. This is what I'm doing at present but I'm open to strategies giving more bets.
I am assuming that you have 1 hour a day to find these three or four bets per week, again if that is an incorrect assumption please let me know. I spend 1 hour to get the 3/4 bets. On other days, I'm researching alternative approaches as I'm not that comfortable with my current method.
To place back bets and have an expected losing streak of eight or less (please remember that you could get this, followed by one winner, and then the streak happens again) you are going to need to be winning around 50% of your bets. This is based on roughly 200 bets per year.
It's possible, but you're going to be betting on short odds horses. Are you happy betting on these types of runners? My preference is to back in the 2/1 - 6/1 range.
We need to make sure that the structure is correct before we start choose a strategy in order to make sure we can hit the goals.
It's much easier to bet on shorter odds horses than to be comfortable with longer losing runs, but it means your ROI may be a bit lower. Personally I will take an average ROI of 5% or higher, and stop tinkering at that point as that's a good return. We may be able to get higher than this, but it's going to closer to this.
If all this will work for you, then we can look at an approach which uses your time to highlight very strong horses which may have been slightly overpriced.
I'll look forward to hearing from you.


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1376
21/02/2020 5:42 pm  

@william-priest thank you for the reply, it's very helpful.

Before we move to a strategy, there's a couple of elements to clarify. With that odds range, you could potentially have a losing streak of 40 or 50 every 1000 bets, and of course this could happen more than one with only a few wins between. Are you happy to psychologically sustain a losing streak like that, and a downswing that could potentially last two or three months (at one selection a day)?

Could you let me know what you're uncomfortable with in your current approach please so I can make sure not to do anything similar?

 


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William Priest
(@william-priest)
Active Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 6
21/02/2020 10:33 pm  

There is no way I could live with a losing streak like the one you detailed.

My current approach involves the use of subjective opinion which makes me uneasy.

 


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1376
24/02/2020 1:37 pm  

@william-priest okay that's brilliant. It means we can now start to bring the parameters of the method to within an area you're comfortable with.

For long-term profits we're going to want to look at shorter odds. Maybe we can mix in an accumulator or other exotic bet to give the excitement of the higher odds, whilst the shorter odds selections at a base level provide the foundations?

We can remove the subjective opinion, it may just take us a few rounds of testing to get the rules correct for you 🙂

I've got a method in mind, are you happy with going at shorter odds and mixing in an exotic bet to keep a level of excitement there?

 


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William Priest
(@william-priest)
Active Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 6
24/02/2020 2:14 pm  

@admin Sounds interesting. Lets give it a go.

 


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1376
25/02/2020 12:20 pm  

Let's get cracking 😀

Begin the races that have the best PR Odds. You can see these in the Daily Digest, and there will always be four.

Please be aware the odds will often be low or odds-on.

Some you may want to skip, for example the 14:15 at Catterick today has only got two runners in it and we expect Do Wanna Know to have a 97% chance of winning the race. The market has it at 1.07, which represents value.

However, if we take the 15:00 at Lingfield (the next strongest in PR Odds today), Palavecino is currently the strongest runner and has odds of 4.00.

So we use the PR Odds shortlist to give us focus on just a few races each day. These can be reduced further to concentrate on Class 2 or higher. If our top four rated horses each day are not from a Class 2 or higher race, you can find the highest PR Odds horses amongst those races (this can be done quickly using an export, let me know if you'd like me to walk you through how to do that).

Open up the PR Odds details by clicking on any horse's PR Odds and check for the gap between this horse and the next best in the race for Total Score and Probability. You want there to be a decent gap compared to the other runners in the race.

In this example the difference between this runner and next best is 20 points and 16%. The next biggest gap between horses in the race is seven points and 3%, making this a big difference. That's what we're looking for.

Confirm that the DSLGR is not more than 180, we want the horse to have performed well recently.

Finally run a Monte Carlo simulation and see if the horse is in the top three. If it is, consider this horse a contender.

Please paper trade this initially, and also track the 5278 CFR rating, RnkPFP and Reynolds Rank (just the position 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. rather than score) for the horses as well as odds, finish position etc. We will almost certainly need to add in extra criteria to factor in the final betting decision to make it as systematic as possible. In this race I wouldn't bet on this horse as a win bet but as an 80/20 or place, but use this as a starting point and we can add in that extra criteria.


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William Priest
(@william-priest)
Active Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 6
26/02/2020 4:47 pm  

@admin Thanks for putting up this method. 3/3 winners today at ISPs of 4/6, 7/4, 5/6.

 


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William Priest
(@william-priest)
Active Member
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 6
28/02/2020 10:49 am  

1 qualifier today : Goobinator 235 Donc @ 8/13

Healing Power is too short for me at 1/5.

First Flow has no 5278 CFR score.

Southfield Lily has never run a good race.


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1376
28/02/2020 11:43 pm  

@william-priest do you watch the races? If not you should do your best to watch a replay, or at the least read the in-running comments. This can make a big difference in determining whether the analysis was right or wrong. Goobinator was doing well, until making a mistake at the last which he didn't recover from. Without that mistake he may well have held on.

 


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