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(@positronic)
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Me Again Smile

Ok the Fibonacci sequence for those who have never heard of it is mind blowing and everywhere, you need to google it to fully get it, but from a betting point of view it is the holy grail for me, I have been trying to crack this one for a long time and have failed so many times with losing runs blowing my pot out of the water, the reason why is because of the way the betting sequence works, if you hit a long losing run its going to hurt, a lot.

In basic terms its a stop at a winner system with a staking plan that follows the Fibonacci sequence, but I am going to add a stop and restart point to this system to try to protect the pot from being destroyed by a long losing run.

A full FS would be 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233 and so on, each one of those numbers equals the amount of points per bet which is why if you hit losing run of say 10 bets that is a total spend of 143 points, so we are going to stop at a losing run of 5 which is 12 points, so a losing run of 10 only hits us for 22 points.

Ok so our sequence of bets goes like this

Bet 1 = 1 pt

Bet 2 = 1 pt

bet 3 = 2 pt

bet 4 = 3 pt

bet 5 = 5 pt

Now the downside to this style of system is that the bets have to placed in their time order which mean you have to have to be able to place the bets throughout the day.

Lets see how we do then Laugh


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(@andrew-p)
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You are guaranteed to lose, it's only a question of time. Laugh

Bookmakers shops used to settle SAW bets in the order written on the slip. I would imagine they would still do this if you ask (until you win of course).


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(@positronic)
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Selections for 7th Sept

Bet 1 - 3.40 Thirsk - Society Prince 7.00 / 1pt

Bet 2 - 4.55 Wexford - Arch Melody 3.50 / 1pt

We can place these first 2 together as they are both 1 point bets, which we will do after every winner.

The next part of the sequence depends on whether we find a winner in the first 2 if not we carry on the sequence.

Bet 3 - 5.10 Stratford - Bagan 4.50

Bet 4 - 5.30 Wolverhampton - Enzo 3.75

Bet 5 - 5.35 Kempton - Envisaging 7.50

Now as you can see from the 5 selections found for today we only have 5 minutes between 4 & 5 so you would need to watch the 5.30 to get the result as it happens so you know what to do with bet 5 or you could decide to only go with 4 for the day and scratch one of the races, I would go with what would appear to be the better chance of winning which is the lower odds horse if I had no way of getting the result before the 5.35


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(@positronic)
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Andrew P said
You are guaranteed to lose, it's only a question of time. Laugh

Bookmakers shops used to settle SAW bets in the order written on the slip. I would imagine they would still do this if you ask (until you win of course).

  

As I have many times before but this is the first time I have added the SAW Laugh


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(@positronic)
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Society Prince drifted to 10.00 and is still running lol Laugh


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(@positronic)
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7th Sept Summary 

Forgot to mention that the selection process is based on a "win last time out" (win LTO) system that I have been paper trading at different times over the last few years and the longest losing run was 9 races which is why I put the stop at 5. All we need is 1 in 4 with a minimum stake of 3.00. average win odds during trial was 4.00.

First day and we plunge straight in with a losing run with 0 in 5, typical Confused

So we will start day 2 with -12.00 points

Cheers

Will


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(@andrew-p)
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 ...the selection process is based on a “win last time out” (win LTO) system that I have been paper trading at different times over the last few years and the longest losing run was 9 races

Did it have an edge Will? In other words, was A/E > 1?

What size bank would you use for this?


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(@positronic)
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Andrew P said

 ...the selection process is based on a “win last time out” (win LTO) system that I have been paper trading at different times over the last few years and the longest losing run was 9 races

Did it have an edge Will? In other words, was A/E > 1?

What size bank would you use for this?

  

Showed profit and standard 100 point bank will see you through any nightmare scenario 


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(@andrewp)
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Did it have an edge Will? In other words, was A/E > 1

 

Showed profit

Not necessarily the same thing?


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(@satkinson_uk)
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Will..  what other criteria are you using for selections??


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(@positronic)
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Andrew P said

 ...the selection process is based on a “win last time out” (win LTO) system that I have been paper trading at different times over the last few years and the longest losing run was 9 races

Did it have an edge Will? In other words, was A/E > 1?

What size bank would you use for this?

  

Went back an worked it out, the A/E came out at 1.5


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(@positronic)
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Selections for 8th Sept

So after yesterday’s 0 from 5 blowout we restart the sequence 

Bet 1 - 2.00 Listowel - Hereia 6.00  1 pt

Bet 2 - 2.20 York - Passion And Glory 3.25  1 pt

Again wait fo the initial results

Bet 3 - 4.00 York - Platform Nineteen 2.75

Bet 4 - 5.00 York - Shamad 5.00

Only 4 available today so lets see where we end up in the sequence 


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(@michael-clarke)
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Will,

What would you do when the odds shorten, e.g. best price on Shamad is now 7/2 ?


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(@andrewp)
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Went back an worked it out, the A/E came out at 1.5

Holy schmoley!

Why lose money with a crazy progressive staking system when simply staking proportionately to return a percentage of bank would guarantee a healthy profit?*

*If A/E>1 then so long as total stakes =E you will make a profit of A-E. You could probably do it from a 10 point bank.


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(@positronic)
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MICHAEL CLARKE said
Will,

What would you do when the odds shorten, e.g. best price on Shamad is now 7/2 ?

  

Yes slight downside is you lose a bit of the odds due to the fact you have to wait, I try to stick to a minimum of 3.00 2/1 but will take 2.75 7/4 if I have to but definitely no lower


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