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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2678
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I am looking for systems with a strike rate of 80%+ and a ROI of 3% to 5% possibly a little more depending on the number of bets produced. The idea is to have as little risk and volatility as possible and to generate a modest return on the capital deployed (bank). The comparative measures will be a cash ISA (1.62% for 1 yr) and the FTSE 100 (7161.71 at 31May 2019).

I have one potential system which I will paper trade to begin with. It is place only using the normal number of places (as per e.w.). I will record to Betfair place SP here

https://www.dropbox.com/s/m7frkwk82cexo24/AP%20Place%20Systems%20-%20Race%20Advisor%201.xlsx?dl=0

Bank will be 100 units. Stakes will be proportionate to odds (i.e. to return 1 unit). For comparison I will also measure to stakes that are a proportion of bank using full Kelly with a presumed edge of 2% over the market. This will be subject to a minimum level of 1.10 (22% of bank). Below this level I could not confidently expect an edge over the market. There is no way i would put the entire bank on a 1.02 shot or 50% of the bank on a 1.04 shot.

A case in point is todays selection Carrie Des Champs. It was 1.11 to small stakes last night but is currently trading at 1.08.

This could all go belly-up so please do not bet the selections.

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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
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Looking forward to following this @AndrewP. I've moved it to a new thread to keep it separate 🙂

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(@andrew-p)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 214
 

Thanks Michael.

Today we have 19:15 Windsor - Ice Age

and 20:35 Pontefract - Tricky Dicky


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(@andrew-p)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 214
 

8:50 Thirsk - Dancing Rave

The quick and dirty shortlist for these is given by top ranked, 5278 CFR, RnkPFPL95 and RnkPFPU95. This gives me somewhere near my desired strike rate. I like 8+ runners so there are three places but ideally no more than 12 so trouble in running is minimised.

After that it's a case of judgement and the shape of the race as to whether it's a bet or not. I like to see market support so favourite or close second favourite is a good sign. If there are two short and a gap to third favourite, so much the better. I passed on Mount Ararat today which was a mistake as the betting shaped up nicely. Dancing Rave went favourite very late.

Tomorrows shortlist is below but I might not be in a position to monitor the market and any withdrawals so we'll leave them out unless I post otherwise.

16:30 Yarmouth 11 Ambient
17:40 Punchestown 11 Count Simon
18:20 Kempton (A.W) 9 Sir Busker
18:50 Kempton (A.W) 13 Ambling
19:00 Hamilton 8 Inspired Thought

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(@andrewp)
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I'll make Inspired Thought a bet.

I would only have stuck with Ambient had I backed it on Betfair place market as is shrank from 11 to 7 runners. Count Simon looked too risky to me according to the market although he won convincingly.


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(@andrew-p)
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All three potentials placed but only one bet (Kempton abandoned). Tomorrows shortlist below but neither looking like a bet at this stage.

16:40 Newbury 9 Sapa Inca
17:50 Uttoxeter 10 White Lilac

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(@andrew-p)
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Sapa Inca won but wasn't a bet. Uttoxeter abandoned. Todays shortlist is

17:25 Sandown 11 Luck Of Clover
20:35 Aintree 10 Midnight Aurora
21:00 Cork 21 Avalanche

Nothing strong enough in the market yet to warrant a bet and weather/ground conditions are a worry.

100 bank to proportional stakes = 103.18 so 3.18% growth on 10.58 stakes = 30.1% POT

100 bank to Kelly stakes = 131.53 so 31.53% growth on 108.95 stakes = 28.9% POT

Cash ISA grown diddly squat after 2 weeks

FTSE 100 = 7368.57 (+2.89% growth)

UPDATE: Two of the three shortlisted placed but all were too risky for me. Tomorrows shortlist is,

14:15 Hexham 9 Sleep In First
15:05 Downpatrick 12 King Of Aran
17:55 Downpatrick 8 Santana Plessis

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(@andrew-p)
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Posts: 214
 

King of Aran is a NR

I will take Santana Plessis now on Betfair place market to take advantage of the three places in case we get NRs.

Sleep In First is a watching brief and unlikely to be a bet.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/m7frkwk82cexo24/AP%20Place%20Systems%20-%20Race%20Advisor%201.xlsx?dl=0


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(@andrew-p)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 214
 

Santana Plessis placed.

Only one shortlisted today,

14:40 Gowran 8 Tony The Gent

Already down from 11 runners to 8 this morning so I'm going to take a chance and say it's a bet on Betfair place market although I would like to see it stronger in the market than 3.8.


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(@andrew-p)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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Despite betting to 3 places in a 7 runner race Tony The Gent weakened in the market and finished fifth.

Potential bets for tomorrow are,

15:15 Catterick 8 Grand Inquisitor
16:15 Catterick 10 Victoriano
17:30 Carlisle 10 Beaufort
19:50 Nottingham 11 Firewater
20:40 Windsor 11 Debbonair

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(@andrewp)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 551
 

Grand Inquisitor is a bet as the race has shaped up nicely.


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(@andrew-p)
Estimable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 214
 

Grand Inquisitor placed. Tomorrows shortlist is,

16:20 Ascot 11 Too Darn Hot
17:50 Brighton 11 Essaka
19:20 Brighton 12 Your Mothers' Eyes
19:50 Brighton 11 Oliver Hardy
20:30 Beverley 10 False Id
21:00 Beverley 9 Whatwouldyouknow

Too Darn Hot will be a bet if he shortens to favourite. Essaka will also be a bet unless he drifts above 3/1in the market.


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(@andrew-p)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 214
 

Too Darn Hot duly went to favourite and Essaka held his price. Both placed. Tomorrows shortlist is,

17:30 Wexford 15 Villa Moura
17:45 Uttoxeter 11 White Lilac
18:00 Wexford 15 Cash Me Outside
19:30 Wexford 17 Morgan

Field sizes are a bit big for me at the moment. I'll see what the picture is tomorrow.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/m7frkwk82cexo24/AP%20Place%20Systems%20-%20Race%20Advisor%201.xlsx?dl=0


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(@andrew-p)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 214
 

Only Cash Me Outside placed so looks like a good decision not to bet. Todays shortlist is,

13:50 Chelmsford (A.W) 9 My Motivate Girl
14:20 Chelmsford (A.W) 9 Carvelas
17:50 Lingfield (A.W) 12 Daring Guest

My Motivate Girl is a bet. Hopefully she will strengthen and go favourite later today.


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(@andrew-p)
Estimable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 214
 

My Motivate Girl didn't shorten or go favourite but she did place so another 0.47% or 5.33% growth in bank depending on the staking. Tomorrows shortlist is,

14:10 Redcar 8 Audarya
15:05 Ascot 8 Private Secretary
15:40 Ascot 9 Ten Sovereigns
16:20 Ascot 10 Hermosa
17:00 Ascot 28 Coral Beach

Audarya, Ten Sovereigns and Hermosa look promising but we'll hold fire until tomorrow.


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