80% SR + 3% ROI System Test
I am looking for systems with a strike rate of 80%+ and a ROI of 3% to 5% possibly a little more depending on the number of bets produced. The idea is to have as little risk and volatility as possible and to generate a modest return on the capital deployed (bank). The comparative measures will be a cash ISA (1.62% for 1 yr) and the FTSE 100 (7161.71 at 31May 2019).
I have one potential system which I will paper trade to begin with. It is place only using the normal number of places (as per e.w.). I will record to Betfair place SP here
Bank will be 100 units. Stakes will be proportionate to odds (i.e. to return 1 unit). For comparison I will also measure to stakes that are a proportion of bank using full Kelly with a presumed edge of 2% over the market. This will be subject to a minimum level of 1.10 (22% of bank). Below this level I could not confidently expect an edge over the market. There is no way i would put the entire bank on a 1.02 shot or 50% of the bank on a 1.04 shot.
A case in point is todays selection Carrie Des Champs. It was 1.11 to small stakes last night but is currently trading at 1.08.
This could all go belly-up so please do not bet the selections.
Today we have 19:15 Windsor - Ice Age
and 20:35 Pontefract - Tricky Dicky
8:50 Thirsk - Dancing Rave
The quick and dirty shortlist for these is given by top ranked, 5278 CFR, RnkPFPL95 and RnkPFPU95. This gives me somewhere near my desired strike rate. I like 8+ runners so there are three places but ideally no more than 12 so trouble in running is minimised.
After that it's a case of judgement and the shape of the race as to whether it's a bet or not. I like to see market support so favourite or close second favourite is a good sign. If there are two short and a gap to third favourite, so much the better. I passed on Mount Ararat today which was a mistake as the betting shaped up nicely. Dancing Rave went favourite very late.
Tomorrows shortlist is below but I might not be in a position to monitor the market and any withdrawals so we'll leave them out unless I post otherwise.
|18:20||Kempton (A.W)||9||Sir Busker|
I'll make Inspired Thought a bet.
I would only have stuck with Ambient had I backed it on Betfair place market as is shrank from 11 to 7 runners. Count Simon looked too risky to me according to the market although he won convincingly.
All three potentials placed but only one bet (Kempton abandoned). Tomorrows shortlist below but neither looking like a bet at this stage.
Sapa Inca won but wasn't a bet. Uttoxeter abandoned. Todays shortlist is
|17:25||Sandown||11||Luck Of Clover|
Nothing strong enough in the market yet to warrant a bet and weather/ground conditions are a worry.
100 bank to proportional stakes = 103.18 so 3.18% growth on 10.58 stakes = 30.1% POT
100 bank to Kelly stakes = 131.53 so 31.53% growth on 108.95 stakes = 28.9% POT
Cash ISA grown diddly squat after 2 weeks
FTSE 100 = 7368.57 (+2.89% growth)
UPDATE: Two of the three shortlisted placed but all were too risky for me. Tomorrows shortlist is,
|14:15||Hexham||9||Sleep In First|
|15:05||Downpatrick||12||King Of Aran|
King of Aran is a NR
I will take Santana Plessis now on Betfair place market to take advantage of the three places in case we get NRs.
Sleep In First is a watching brief and unlikely to be a bet.
Santana Plessis placed.
Only one shortlisted today,
|14:40||Gowran||8||Tony The Gent|
Already down from 11 runners to 8 this morning so I'm going to take a chance and say it's a bet on Betfair place market although I would like to see it stronger in the market than 3.8.
Despite betting to 3 places in a 7 runner race Tony The Gent weakened in the market and finished fifth.
Potential bets for tomorrow are,
Grand Inquisitor is a bet as the race has shaped up nicely.
Grand Inquisitor placed. Tomorrows shortlist is,
|16:20||Ascot||11||Too Darn Hot|
|19:20||Brighton||12||Your Mothers' Eyes|
Too Darn Hot will be a bet if he shortens to favourite. Essaka will also be a bet unless he drifts above 3/1in the market.
Too Darn Hot duly went to favourite and Essaka held his price. Both placed. Tomorrows shortlist is,
|18:00||Wexford||15||Cash Me Outside|
Field sizes are a bit big for me at the moment. I'll see what the picture is tomorrow.
Only Cash Me Outside placed so looks like a good decision not to bet. Todays shortlist is,
|13:50||Chelmsford (A.W)||9||My Motivate Girl|
|17:50||Lingfield (A.W)||12||Daring Guest|
My Motivate Girl is a bet. Hopefully she will strengthen and go favourite later today.
My Motivate Girl didn't shorten or go favourite but she did place so another 0.47% or 5.33% growth in bank depending on the staking. Tomorrows shortlist is,
Audarya, Ten Sovereigns and Hermosa look promising but we'll hold fire until tomorrow.