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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
25/05/2020 9:48 am  

As I said in a different Topic I've been looking at the Sires for All Weather Courses and trying to see if there are significant differences between Fibresand, Tapeta & Polytrack as far as the Sires, and other factors, go.

I started by looking at the Country of the Sire over the 3 different types of Track before breaking the Sires down into different Tracks.

Fibresand (Southwell):

 

Country of Sire

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Expected Wins

A/E

Australia

576

78

13.54

72.29

1.08

France

306

45

14.71

36.1

1.25

GB

4604

504

10.95

523.36

0.96

Ireland

3970

481

12.12

473.69

1.02

USA

2351

250

10.63

269.86

0.93

Rest of World

221

44

19.91

32.34

1.36

Tapeta (Newcastle & Wolverhampton):

Country of Sire

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Expected Wins

A/E

Australia

2465

310

12.58

285.13

1.09

France

1313

106

8.07

129.73

0.82

GB

16926

1736

10.26

1721.03

1.01

Ireland

16659

1820

10.93

1816.38

1

USA

7116

734

10.31

750.71

0.98

Rest of World

701

78

11.13

77.69

1

Polytrack (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield & Dundalk):

Country of Sire

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Expected Wins

A/E

Australia

4227

477

11.28

478.3

1

France

2488

254

10.21

249.72

1.02

GB

28483

2855

10.02

2878.96

0.99

Ireland

31311

3262

10.42

3307.06

0.99

USA

14208

1590

11.19

1516.94

1.05

Rest of World

1389

140

10.08

148.19

0.94

It does make interesting reading (although it may be of limited use due to small numbers of runners eligible).

I then had to look at each course for Sires individually due to the varied nature of the courses (Left Handed as opposed to Right Handed, Tight, Undulating, Up Hill, Down Hill, etc

In the end I came up with the following list of Sires for each Course:

Chelmsford: Speightstown (USA)

Kempton: Choisir (Australia), Delegator (GB), Dragon Pulse (Ireland), Elusive City (USA), Exceed And Excel (Australia), Lethal Force (Ireland), Rip Van Winkle (Ireland), Shamardal (USA) & Zamindar (USA)

Lingfield: Archipenko (USA), Bertolini (USA), Cape Cross (Ireland), Champs Elysees (GB), Dansili (GB), Henrythenavigator (USA) & Toronado (Ireland)

Newcastle: Lope De Vega (Ireland) & Pastoral Pursuits (GB)

Southwell: Lethal Force (Ireland) & Street Cry (Ireland)

Wolverhampton: Cape Cross (Ireland), Frozen Power (Ireland), Intello (Germany), Poet's Voice (GB), Power (GB) & Toronado (Ireland)

Dundalk: Choisir (Australia) & Declaration of War (USA)

 

These have been selected by having 5+ Winners since 2015 at BSP of 21.0 or less with A/E greater than 1 and showing Profit to both BSP & ISP. I've highlighted the Sires that qualify on 2 or more All Weather Tracks – I'll be testing these, initially until the end of the Year, and I'll provide regular updates.

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
25/05/2020 11:38 am  

Very interesting reading, thank you. It may also be worth digging into the US sires in more details on Polytracks.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
25/05/2020 11:46 am  

@mikeywilding

That and Australian Sires on Tapeta was likely to be Stage 2 - probably starting in September.


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 437
25/05/2020 1:46 pm  

Hi John, 

It might be interesting to look at the historic figures with running totals for A/E by sire calculated after each race or each day. That way you can see what the position would have been if you'd applied rules like,

  • Back horses only if their track/sire A/E >1 or,
  • Back horses of top 5 sires by A/E

to each race over time after say the first year. It would reveal whether this sort of 'tracker fund' approach would have been profitable.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
25/05/2020 4:54 pm  

I'm sure I can get the breakdown by Sire fairly easily and put it into a Spreadsheet - from there it should be fairly straightforward.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
25/05/2020 8:20 pm  

Here are two Spreadsheets (each arranged by Race Course)

The first one is the list of Runners in AW Races since 2015 including Sires/etc https://www.dropbox.com/s/djier7hgsfkeqwp/AW%20Races.ods?dl=0

 

The second is the breakdown by Sires for each course including A/E & Profit/Loss https://www.dropbox.com/s/uaqnrv118jftchz/AW%20SIres.ods?dl=0

 

Enjoy


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
02/06/2020 5:13 pm  

It looks like the test for these angles begins tomorrow when The Warrior is running at Kempton in the 17:05 Exceed And Excel is the Sire.

 

I'm going to take a little time and study the race before giving my preliminary (lack of) thoughts.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
02/06/2020 8:57 pm  

Okay a few more picks for this angle than I thought.

There are 6 horses that qualify

1:35 You're Cool (Exceed And Excel) & Waseem Ferris (Exceed And Excel)

2:10 Lightness (Shamardal)

3:20 Merweb (Shamardal)

4:30 Lethal Missile (Lethal Force)

5:05 The Warrior (Exceed And Excel)

Now bear in mind the reality is that I'm paper trading these until , at least, September or more likely December.

 

Looking at the 1:35 I've ruled out Waseem Ferris as none of the qualifying Sires has produced a progeny who won at Kempton at SP of greater than 33-1 and Waseem Ferris is 50-1 at the moment.

You're Cool is 8 wins from 38 in AW Handicaps with an additional 8 Places - 4 of these wins were in Class 4 and 4 in Class 5 (This is a Class 4) is Drawn 3. The race looks like being run at a Fast Pace which should suit (RNKSPDFIGLRADJ is 2nd) Odds quoted on Timeform was 10-1 so I may have looked at this for an e/w

2:10 This race is a bit of a minefield as only 4 have had a prior run and one of those I've just noticed is a NR on the RA Race Card - Gold Wand who I had down as the one likely to make the running.

Given that you can never rule out John Gosden's horses I again fancy Lightness as an e/w proposition.

3:20 Merweb 1 win from 13 runs on All Weather plus 8 places. At Kempton he is 0 from 3 with 2 places and over the distance has placed once from 2 runs.

LTO he was a Beaten Favourite and I expect him to try and make the running this time which could work out for him as LTO was over a mile so maybe the shorter distance will suit the running style tomorrow - Incidentally he also has the lowest Reynolds Ranking. Again a claim for an e/w

4:30 Lethal Missile - the best hope I can see is if some one like Purgatory makes the early Pace which could enable Lethal Missile to sneak in - an outside chane of an e/w place at best.

 

5:05 The Warrior is a C&D winner and is 4 wins from 31 runs on AW with 7 places, 4 from 26 over the distance with 6 places and 2 wins from 6 runs in Class 6 with an additional Place.

The Warrior is ranked 2nd in PR Odds, Reynolds Rating, RNKSPDFIGLRADJ & 5278 CFR and 3rd in VDW Odds.

To me looks an obvious candidate for a place and, depending on who takes the early lead, a possible winner.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
03/06/2020 4:24 pm  

@johnwaters1965 a great overview. A good result on Lightness with the e/w.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
04/06/2020 8:51 am  

@mikeywilding sadly Lightness was all I had to show on these yesterday - still all that I've lost is the time recording the runs


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
08/06/2020 9:14 am  

Bear in mind I have different Max Odds for each course so some selections will have been discarded before looking at the horses.

Week 1:

Kempton saw 5 selections with 1 Place for a loss of -3.9 Points

Newcastle 2 selections 0 Places for a loss of -2.0 Points

Lingfield saw 8 selections 2 places for a loss of -4.9 Points


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
08/06/2020 11:57 am  

@johnwaters1965 I didn't realise you had different Max Odds for different courses, how do you come to these?

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
08/06/2020 1:46 pm  

@mikeywilding - Just looked at the Maximum Winning SP from the races I posted on Dropbox - When I get a spare half hour I'll post a list here for simplicity 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
08/06/2020 5:28 pm  

@johnwaters1965 it would be worthwhile running an odds-range test to see where the majority of winners, profit and advantage (A/E) are coming from.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 726
08/06/2020 7:05 pm  

@mikeywilding  - I have done something similar (using Proform) to come up with the maximum Odds.

 

This is based on all races at the track since 2015 and then using the Sires listed previously

 

Course

Odds Limit

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Expected

A/E

Chelmsford

12

38

12

31.58

6.12

1.96

Kempton

33

1325

249

18.79

166.59

1.5

Lingfield

33

988

205

20.75

142.02

1.44

Newcastle

33

216

43

19.91

29.15

1.48

Southwell

25

113

32

28.32

18.97

1.69

Wolverhampton

66

851

173

20.33

110.36

1.57

Dundalk

8

62

27

43.55

13.1

2.06

 

Obviously some of these could do with a boost in numbers (particularly Chelmsford & Dundalk) but they have shown a profit for at least 4 of the 5 years so, at the moment, I'll leave well enough alone until I can have a look at other Sires to boost the numbers.


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