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Michael Wilding
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07/02/2020 9:06 pm  

What are the overall stats looking so far?


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AndrewP
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07/02/2020 9:53 pm  

My figures. They will need checking.

Looks like Betfair is preferable. Prices are better so more dutches are possible. Returns are greater because longshots have much smaller stakes and shorter priced selections have bigger stakes and win more often.


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Carl Newbury
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08/02/2020 8:36 am  

Thanks Andrew 

32 races 

19 winning races 

8 placed races 


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Carl Newbury
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08/02/2020 10:06 am  

Should read 

30 races 

17 winning races 

8 placed races 

 


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Carl Newbury
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08/02/2020 11:40 am  

Saturday

 

Lingfield

4.05  new arrival / kylla looks / dramatista

 

Naas

2.12  aramax / recent revelations / gin on lime

3.57  alone / alpine cobra / wingin a prayer

 

Newbury

1.15  chantry house / just in a muddle / manvers house

 

Warwick

12.55  kingsplace / trincomalee / one touch

2.05  rouge vif / torpillo / nube negra

 

Wolverhampton

7.00   Kingswear / marcela de vega / Baltic wolve


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AndrewP
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09/02/2020 4:22 pm  

A/E is the key figure.

Industry SP A/E = 0.91

Betfair SP A/E =1.02

https://www.dropbox.com/s/znhzwtzk6nrtz5s/Carls%20MC%20Dutches.xlsx?dl=0

The industry SP overround and longshot bias have a big effect on these dutches.


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AndrewP
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09/02/2020 4:25 pm  

A/E is the key figure.

Industry SP A/E = 0.91

Betfair SP A/E =1.02

https://www.dropbox.com/s/znhzwtzk6nrtz5s/Carls%20MC%20Dutches.xlsx?dl=0

 

The industry SP overround and longshot bias have a big effect on these dutches.


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Carl Newbury
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10/02/2020 12:50 pm  

Monday

 

Plumpton

2.15  Fraser Island / ballydoyle / the topp notes

 

Wolverhampton

4.35  beautiful illusion / dima / distant goddess


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Carl Newbury
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11/02/2020 9:09 am  

Tuesday

 

Newcastle

7.20  blow your horn / motawaazy / discovery island


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Carl Newbury
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12/02/2020 6:51 am  

Wednesday

 

Kempton

5.30  omnivega / mizuki / paseo

 

Southwell

2.55  snow space / bluelion / badayel


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Carl Newbury
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13/02/2020 12:48 pm  

Thursday

 

Chelmsford

8.00  poets mind / da vinci / Gregory k

 

Leicester

4.00  arcade attraction / donatello mail / mistercobar

4.30  asylo / risk and roll / alfstar


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Carl Newbury
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14/02/2020 11:15 am  

Friday

 

Lingfield

2.35  emraan / that’s a shame / monya

3.40  makram / saucy encore / centurion song


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Carl Newbury
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15/02/2020 12:35 pm  

Saturday

 

Ascot

1.50  pym / Sam brown / Danny whizzbang

 

Haydock

1.30  caribean boy / musical slave / glinger flame

4.25  ramses de teillee / kalooki / overthetop

 

Lingfield

2.00  dublin pharaoh / win win power / king of the south

 

Newcastle

7.00  zere / rideson / defence girl

7.30  scherzo / alamora / morrooj


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Carl Newbury
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16/02/2020 1:36 pm  

Sunday

 

Kempton

2.15  clog maker / rogue tide / bursea lady

 

Navan

4.00  Elwood / discordantly / captain cj


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Carl Newbury
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17/02/2020 1:15 pm  

Monday

 

Carlisle

2.50  grumpy boots / o’hanrahan bridge / hold that taught

 

Kempton

4.55  sir Oliver / partridge / Dana forever


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