EXTRA PLACE RACES
Today's selection was 2nd for a breakeven day.
An update on my revised strategy. A disappointing run over the last 7 weeks with a loss of 12.73 points.
However the version without any adjustment for the favourite / longshot bias continues to perform well. This has shown a profit of 20.59 points in the same period.
Total profit is now 147.38 points from 1,206 selections. ROI is 12.2%. The returns to proportional stakes are slightly higher at 12.6%.
If I exclude any selections with odds higher than 50/1 this increases the profit to 180.58 points from 995 selections (ROI 18.2%).
Going very well long-term. Interesting about the longshot-bias, how are you calculating?
Usually you see more profits when you include the higher odds, but the variance isn't worth it. However, in this case it makes sense that the profits are higher without them due to the way the strategy works. I would imagine the variance is also reduced?
I apply a factor depending on the odds to calculate what I believe are the true odds. So for odds up to 3/1 I will apply a factor of 0.94, for odds up to 80/1 the factor is 0.40. This is based on the analysis of many thousands of handicaps (most of the extra place races are handicaps).
1 selection today.