EXTRA PLACE RACES
 

EXTRA PLACE RACES  

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
12/01/2020 12:58 pm  

Yesterday's selection lost.

Total profit now £1,662.24.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
PUNC 3.15 Minx Tiara 4.50 BOYLESPORTS 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
13/01/2020 12:09 am  

Today's selection was 2nd for a breakeven day.

An update on my revised strategy. A disappointing run over the last 7 weeks with a loss of 12.73 points.

However the version without any adjustment for the favourite / longshot bias continues to perform well. This has shown a profit of 20.59 points in the same period.

Total profit is now 147.38 points from 1,206 selections. ROI is 12.2%. The returns to proportional stakes are slightly higher at 12.6%.

If I exclude any selections with odds higher than 50/1 this increases the profit to 180.58 points from 995 selections (ROI 18.2%).

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1137
13/01/2020 10:16 am  

Going very well long-term. Interesting about the longshot-bias, how are you calculating?

Usually you see more profits when you include the higher odds, but the variance isn't worth it. However, in this case it makes sense that the profits are higher without them due to the way the strategy works. I would imagine the variance is also reduced?


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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
13/01/2020 6:18 pm  

@admin

I apply a factor depending on the odds to calculate what I believe are the true odds. So for odds up to 3/1 I will apply a factor of 0.94, for odds up to 80/1 the factor is 0.40. This is based on the analysis of many thousands of handicaps (most of the extra place races are handicaps).

1 selection today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
WOLV 7.20 Traveller (6) 4.00 SKY 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
14/01/2020 12:56 pm  

Yesterday's selection won for a profit of £120.

Total profit now £1,782.24.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
DONC 3.50 Eyes Right 4.00 UNIBET 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
15/01/2020 12:26 pm  

Yesterday's selection lost.

Total profit now £1,732.24.

2 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
WOLV 12.55 Dark Phoenix (2) 3.33 UNIBET 4
PUNC 2.35 Colour Me In 4.50 BETFRED 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
16/01/2020 3:02 pm  

Both selections lost yesterday. £100 loss.

Total profit now £1,632.24.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
NEWC 6.30 Puchita (4) 4.25 LADBROKES 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
17/01/2020 12:38 pm  

Yesterday's selection lost.

Total profit now £1,582.24.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER
DUND 6.00 Everyhouronthehour (11) 3.00 BETFRED

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
20/01/2020 12:51 pm  

Friday's selection won for a profit of £90.

Total profit now £1,672.24.

3 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
NEWC 4.00 Skipthescales 4.50 UNIBET 4
KEMP 4.20 Muraaqeb (8) 7.50 BOYLESPORTS 4
WOLV 6.55 Enmeshing (9) 5.00 SKY 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
21/01/2020 1:45 pm  

2 places and a loser yesterday for a loss of £30.

Total profit now £1,642.24.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
NEWC 7.15 Gunmaker (4) 4.50 BET VICTOR 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
22/01/2020 12:42 pm  

Yesterday's selection was 2nd for a loss of £3.63.

Total profit now £1,638.62.

3 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
LING 2.20 Social City (7) 4.50 UNIBET 4
CATT 4.05 Miss Amelia 5.00 BOYLESPORTS 4
KEMP 8.00 Merweb (2) 3.50 SKY 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
23/01/2020 1:22 pm  

2 seconds and a faller yesterday for a loss of £60.

Total profit now £1,578.62.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
NEWC 8.00 Qaaraat (3) 4.00 SKY 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
24/01/2020 1:24 pm  

Yesterday's selection was 4th for a loss of £5.

Total profit now £1,573.62.

3 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
HUNT 2.00 Katahdin 4.75 LADBROKES 4
DONC 3.25 WAKOOL 5.50 UNIBET 5
WOLV 6.45 N Over J (7) 3.50 SKY 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 697
25/01/2020 1:32 pm  

A winner and 2 losers yesterday for a profit of £80.

Total profit now £1,653.62.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
CHEL 4.10 Sofias Rock 5.50 BET VICTOR 4

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