EXTRA PLACE RACES
 
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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
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20/03/2020 2:47 pm  

I'll also start to record the theoretical win over-round as well so that I can see the total over/under-round.

For today there are 4 selections and in each case the win over-round is higher than the place under-round so in theory they should not be bets.

However I think these calculations are overly pessimistic because of the impact of the favourite / longshot bias and also the benefit of BOG.

The selections are :-

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
DUND 3.30 Tio Esteban (17) 3.50 UNIBET 4
DUND 4.00 Cautious Approach (1) 3.00 BOYLESPORTS 4
DUND 4.30 Poets Pride (5) 4.75 LADBROKES 4
DUND 5.00 Lady Alcazar (3) 6.00 LADBROKES 4

The "best" selection is Poets Pride with a place under-round of 89 and a win over-round of 117.

The "worst" selection is Cautious Approach with a place under-round of 96 and a win over-round of 118.

 


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AndrewP
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20/03/2020 5:33 pm  

@michael-clarke 

Michael, can you explain what you mean by a place under-round of 89 please?

A perfectly round place book paying 4 places would total 400%, what was it in the 4:30? 

 


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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
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21/03/2020 12:40 am  

Hi Andrew, in the 4.30 it was 356%, i.e. 89 per runner.

I expressed it this way so I can easily compare it to the win over-round, ideally I am looking for the place under-around and the win over-round to be as low as possible, preferably below 200.


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MICHAEL CLARKE
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21/03/2020 2:32 pm  

2 places and a loser yesterday for a loss of £42.50.

Total profit now £2,173.78.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
THUR 3.40 WRONG DIRECTION 5.00 UNIBET 5

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AndrewP
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21/03/2020 2:55 pm  
Posted by: @michael-clarke

Hi Andrew, in the 4.30 it was 356%, i.e. 89 per runner.

I expressed it this way so I can easily compare it to the win over-round, ideally I am looking for the place under-around and the win over-round to be as low as possible, preferably below 200.

Isn't this just telling you the 'book percentage per winner' on each side of the bet? I'm not sure how useful this is although I'd agree, the races with the lowest win over-round and greatest place under-round would be the ones to play in.

The way I would look at it is to ask myself, 'how has the bookmaker apportioned the 17% over-round across the 12 runners on the win side of the book?' He has no control over the distribution of the 44% on the place side. This is determined by the number of places paid and the percentage of the win odds. It's a huge percentage so each runner is likely value on the place side.

This was a race with a clear front (3 runners), middle (5 runners) and tail (4 runners).

As protection against the tail winning at big odds the bookmaker would have loaded a disproportionate amount of the 17% on these 4 runners. Perhaps 3% or 4% effectively offering them at about half their 'true' chance (the longshot bias).

This means the remaining 13% is distributed across the other 8 runners. If this were evenly distributed (1.625% per runner), it would be proportionately greater on a 10/1 shot (9% chance) than a 4/1 shot (20% chance). I suspect it might actually be about 2% per runner on the middle five leaving about 3% across the front three. The front three would likely be e.w. value.

Of course, I already know the result but I'll illustrate what I mean in a table in the next post.
 


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AndrewP
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21/03/2020 3:02 pm  

Below is the 4:30 race at SP. The win over-round is up to 23% and the place under-round down to 12% so you caught the market at the right time Michael.

  WinPrice Win% Diff% PlacePrice Place%
FIT FOR FUNCTION 3.75 0.27 0.00 1.55 0.65
MAJOR POWER 4.5 0.22 0.04 1.7 0.59
POET'S PRIDE 5.5 0.18 0.04 1.9 0.53
MISTY AT SEA 9 0.11 0.07 2.6 0.38
EACHARN 11 0.09 0.02 3 0.33
ISEEBREEZE 11 0.09 0.00 3 0.33
TANSEEQ 12 0.08 0.01 3.2 0.31
RED CYMBAL 13 0.08 0.01 3.4 0.29
KEEPTHEBESTSIDEOUT 34 0.03 0.05 7.6 0.13
WHEREWITHAL 34 0.03 0.00 7.6 0.13
FLAREPATH 41 0.02 0.01 9 0.11
HEE HAW 51 0.02 0.00 11 0.09
  total book % 1.23   total book % 3.88
  o/r -0.23   u/r 0.12

As you can see, there is a bit of a jump in price/chance from third to fourth favourite and from eigth to nineth giving the three sections. This would more pronounced the shorter the favourite. It suggests e.w. value on the front three (those before the gap).

The 'shape' of the race is key. The bigger the place under-round and the smaller the win over-round (less the longshot bias in the tail) the better the front of the market is for an e.w. bet. You then need a distinct concentration of chances at the head of the market.

I suspect there are certain combinations of over/under-rounds, chance distribution, places offered and number of runners where this method shows an edge.


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MICHAEL CLARKE
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21/03/2020 4:51 pm  

@andrewp

You are right, it is telling me the book percentage per winner. However, everything else being equal, the lower this is the better the chances of making a profit.

I am sure I haven't discovered the ideal parameters for this but if I can eke out a decent profit then I am reasonably happy.

You are correct, the shape of the race is important, probably the ideal would be a short priced favourite, the next 3 at average odds and the balance at long odds.

For instance, a 15 runner race where the favourite is 1/1, the next 3 at 6/1 and the rest at 100/1 would give a win over-round of 0.04 and a place under-round of 1.28.

I'm not sure if there is a mathematical method of categorising the "shape" of a race, perhaps including the percentage of the book the favourite takes up, the percentage of the next 3 and the percentage of the balance may be useful.

 


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MICHAEL CLARKE
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22/03/2020 12:42 pm  

Yesterday's selection was 2nd for a profit of £2.50.

Total profit now £2,176.28.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
DOWN 3.10 Ifyoucatchmenow 5.00 UNIBET 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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23/03/2020 12:47 pm  

Yesterday's selection places for a profit of £2.50.

Total profit now £2,178.78.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
NAAS 3.00 Dark Vader (3) 3.00 BETFRED 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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24/03/2020 12:24 pm  

Yesterday's selection was 2nd for a loss of £10.

Total profit now £2,168.78.

1 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
CLON 4.30 Robin Deuz Pois 3.00 BET VICTOR 4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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03/04/2020 1:29 pm  

The final selection before the racing shutdown was 2nd for a loss of £8.33.

Profit for the month was £356.33.

Total profit now £2,160.45.

Overall there have been 948 selections with 161 winners, 358 places and 429 losers.

LSP is 43.21 points with a ROI of 4.6%.

The place bets have delivered a profit of 67.53 points, the win bets a loss of 24.33 points.

There have been 85 occasions where the horse has finished in the extra place. This has accounted for 90.15 points.


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MICHAEL CLARKE
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01/06/2020 1:39 pm  

It's good to be back but having lost £50 on the favourites in the 1st 2 races it could be a tricky betting period.

3 today.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
NEWC 3.20 Tathmeen (9) 4.75 LADBROKES 4
NEWC 3.55 Rock Of Diamonds (7) 4.00 UNIBET 4
NEWC 5.05 Good Tidings (8) 4.50 BOYLESPORTS 4

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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Posts: 1887
01/06/2020 5:49 pm  

@michael-clarke got one there in the last. I think we're going to see a lot of surprises over the next days and weeks as horses are put in races, and race conditions, they wouldn't normally be put in just because they need to be raced. As well as having a different makeup of race conditions to what we would normally see and less availability of sets of conditions.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
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Posts: 901
03/06/2020 3:59 pm  

Yep I've had 2 very bad days generally so I think I'll put this on hold and paper trade until I am happy with the results. I may have a bet if the advantage is particularly high.


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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
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Posts: 901
04/06/2020 2:11 pm  

A 2nd and 2 losers on Monday for a loss of £102.50. Total profit now £2,057.95.

Today's selections seem to have a decent edge so I'll have a bet.

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES
NEWC 2.45 Bombastic (6) 6.50 LADBROKES 4
NEWC 3.20 Leoch (5) 6.00 U 4
NEWC 3.55 Aali (12) 4.00 BET365 4
NEWC 5.05 Primos Comet (11) 4.50 LADBROKES 4
NEWC 5.40 Accessor (6) 6.00 LADBROKES 4

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