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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
07/02/2020 9:28 am  

Shishkin won yesterday so the Weeded showed a loss of -0.50 Points and the unweeded a loss of -3.00 Points.

Today there are 2 Tracked neither of which survives the weed:

Kempton 15:30 Kilfilum Cross
Chelmsford 19:15 Gold at Midnight

Happy Punting


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2086
07/02/2020 9:08 pm  

Thank you for keeping us updated with the results.

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
08/02/2020 8:51 am  

@admin

I still need to do an analysis of these results so watch this space.

 

 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
08/02/2020 8:54 am  

A quiet day for a Saturday with only 21 tracked (and none of them running in Ireland)

11 Survive the weed:

Newbury 13:15 Chantry House
Newbury 13:15 L'Air Du Vent
Newbury 14:25 Altior
Newbury 15:00 Native River
Newbury 15:35 Never Adapt
Newbury 15:35 Thebannerkingrebel
Newbury 16:10 Mont Des Avaloirs
Newbury 16:10 Highest Sun
Warwick 12:55 One Touch
Warwick 14:05 Precious Cargo
Warwick 15:15 Katpoli

10 don't make it through the weed:

Newbury 13:50 Acey Milan
Newbury 13:50 One for the Team
Newbury 14:25 Kalashnikov
Newbury 15:35 Ciel De Neige
Newbury 15:35 Pic D'Orhy
Newbury 15:35 Harambe
Uttoxeter 14:32 Bignorm
Uttoxeter 15:42 Haldon Hill
Warwick 14:40 Indefatigable
Warwick 15:15 Belami Des Pictons

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
09/02/2020 8:51 am  

Yesterday there were 6 winners (Chantry House, Altior, Native River, One For The Team, Pic D'Orhy & Indefatigable) alongside 2 places (Mont Des Avaloirs & Ciel De Neige) which resulted in the Weeded showing a loss of -5.29 Points and the Unweeded a Profit of +20.25 (largely due to Pic D'Orhy which drifted to 33-1)

With the Abandonment of Exeter today (originally 6 Tracked here) there are 2 left at Punchestown. 1 Survives the Weed and 1 doesn't.

Weeded:

Punchestown 4:55 Ferny Hollow

 

Unweeded:

Punchestown 3:50 Dunvegan

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
11/02/2020 8:54 am  

Fingers crossed that Punchestown goes ahead today - there are 5 Tracked horse today -

2 Survive the weed:

Punchestown 15:30 Early Doors
Punchestown 16:35 Ferny Hollow

3 Don't survive the weed:

Newcastle 16:20 Waiting for Richie
Newcastle 19:50 Dutch Pursuit
Punchestown 15:30 Dunvegan

Happy Punting


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2086
11/02/2020 10:20 am  

@johnwaters1965 would you be kind enough to remind me what the process of weeding is?

 

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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
11/02/2020 10:26 am  

@admin

Michael - I weed them by selecting those that are in the "Places" on the Rating the Races Ratings - so it can be between 1st-4th on the RTR Ratings depending how many places the bookies are paying (excluding extra place races).

 

Looks like I had no luck with Punchestown being abandoned due to Snow so just got the 2 Each Way bets at Newcastle. (Normally 5-1 or better I'll go e/w)

 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Posts: 760
12/02/2020 8:59 am  

Nothing to show for yesterday so a loss of -2.00 Points.

Today only 1 survives the weather - it also survives the weed:

Kempton 5:30 Omnivega

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
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Posts: 760
13/02/2020 8:04 am  

Omnivega won yesterday for a profit on the day of +2.00 Points.

Again only one survives the weather and it survives the weed -

Leicester 3:30 First Flow

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
14/02/2020 7:59 am  

Yesterday saw a 100% Strike Rate with First Flow winning for a profit on the day of +0.73 Points.

Today there were 5 Tracked (Faustinovick, Saint De Vassy, Danny Kirwan, Lossiemouth & Iconic Muddle) sadly Sandown didn't survive the weather.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
15/02/2020 9:11 am  

Today I've lost 3 due to the loss of Wincanton but, nevertheless, have 18 Tracked 8 Survive the Weed and 10 don't.

Surviving the Weed:

Ascot 13:15 Master Debonair
Ascot 15:35 Cyrname
Haydock 13:30 Emitom
Haydock 15:50 Kilbricken Storm
Gowran 13:44 Cilaos Emery
Gowran 13:44 Darasso
Gowran 14:54 Real Steel
Gowran 14:54 Chris's Dream

Not Surviving the Weed:

Ascot 15:00 The Con Man
Ascot 15:00 Prudhomme
Ascot 15:00 Eden Du Houx
Ascot 15:35 Traffic Fluide
Haydock 13:30 Glinger Flame
Haydock 14:05 West Approach
Haydock 15:15 Elegant Escape
Haydock 15:50 Young Bull
Lingfield 14:35 Harry's Bar
Gowran 14:54 Shattered Love

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
16/02/2020 8:39 am  

4 Winners Yesterday (Emitom, Cilaos Emery, Chris's Dream & Harrys Bar) together with 1 Place (Shattered Love) saw the Weeded make a profit of +2.67 Points, the unweeded a loss of -2.15 Points.

 

Today only 3 survive the weather and all are in the 1:50 at Navan.

Surviving the Weed: Penhill

Not surviving the Weed: Tiger Roll & Darasso

Just so your aware I'm now tracking the 2 sets of bets seperately and I've eliminated races outside UK & Ireland. I'll review again at the end of June. Until then I'll keep you informed daily of bets & outcomes and monthly of the set of results.

Happy Punting 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
17/02/2020 8:56 am  

Penhill placed yesterday to give the Weeded a profit of +0.05 Points.

Darasso was a Non Runner to leave the unWeeded showing a loss of -1.00 Points on the day.

 

Today there is only one tracked that doesn't survive the weed - Carlisle 2:15 No Regrets

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
17/02/2020 1:47 pm  

Here is the current analysis (as at End of January) for my Tracked Horses https://www.dropbox.com/s/6jqsa51ju0c7ikn/Tracked%20Records%20-Analysis%20-%20Step%202.ods?dl=0

 

The Breakdown into weeded & unweeded at various Betting Ranges looks "interesting" to me:

All Tracked                          
                           
Lowest Odds Highest Odds Bets Wins S/R A/E Chi2 Place Bets Places Places S/R Places A/E Places Chi2 P/L ROI
  1.99 98 64 65.31% 1.01 0.90 - - - - - 3.80 3.88
2.00 2.99 109 47 43.12% 1.04 0.67 - - - - - 4.81 1.76
3.00 3.99 121 38 31.40% 1.05 0.73 - - - - - 8.50 7.02
4.00 4.99 83 19 22.89% 0.98 0.94 - - - - - 0.12 0.14
5.00 5.99 66 11 16.67% 0.87 0.60 40 19 47.50% 0.92 0.62 -5.17 -7.84
6.00 6.99 90 15 16.67% 1.03 0.89 90 49 54.44% 1.11 0.29 8.98 9.98
7.00 8.49 93 14 15.05% 1.13 0.63 92 42 45.65% 1.05 0.66 15.97 17.17
8.50 11.99 115 4 3.48% 0.34 0.02 112 40 35.71% 0.98 0.87 -29.73 -25.85
12.00 16.50 95 9 9.47% 1.28 0.46 95 27 28.42% 1.00 0.98 21.63 22.77
16.51 26.00 73 6 8.22% 1.67 0.19 72 15 20.83% 1.02 0.93 30.45 41.72
26.01   57 1 1.75% 0.74 0.76 57 9 15.79% 1.48 0.21 17.56 30.81
                           
Weeded                          
                           
Lowest Odds Highest Odds Bets Wins S/R A/E Chi2 Place Bets Places Places S/R Places A/E Places Chi2 P/L ROI
  1.99 80 52 65.00% 1.01 0.95 - - - - - 2.62 3.28
2.00 2.99 78 33 42.31% 1.02 0.90 - - - - - -0.62 -0.79
3.00 3.99 86 31 36.05% 1.20 0.23 - - - - - 19.75 22.97
4.00 4.99 42 12 28.57% 1.23 0.42 - - - - - 8.52 20.28
5.00 5.99 26 3 11.54% 0.60 0.32 14 4 28.57% 0.55 0.08 -10.90 -41.92
6.00 6.99 35 7 20.00% 1.24 0.53 35 20 57.14% 1.17 0.34 8.76 25.02
7.00 8.49 27 6 22.22% 1.65 0.18 26 12 46.15% 1.06 0.79 9.73 36.02
8.50 11.99 17 1 5.88% 0.56 0.53 17 6 35.29% 0.96 0.89 -3.67 -21.61
12.00 16.50 10 0 0.00% 0.00 0.37 10 2 20.00% 0.70 0.56 -6.15 -61.50
16.51 26.00 7 1 14.29% 2.70 0.29 7 3 42.86% 1.97 0.18 -0.15 -2.14
26.01   - - - - - - - - - - - -
                           
UnWeeded                          
                           
Lowest Odds Highest Odds Bets Wins S/R A/E Chi2 Place Bets Places Places S/R Places A/E Places Chi2 P/L ROI
  1.99 17 11 64.71% 1.01 0.97 - - - - - 0.78 4.59
2.00 2.99 32 14 43.75% 1.09 0.67 - - - - - 1.54 4.81
3.00 3.99 35 7 20.00% 0.67 0.21 - - - - - -11.25 -32.14
4.00 4.99 42 7 16.67% 0.72 0.31 - - - - - -8.00 -19.05
5.00 5.99 39 7 17.95% 0.94 0.85 26 14 53.85% 1.04 0.81 0.23 0.58
6.00 6.99 56 9 16.07% 1.00 0.99 55 29 52.73% 1.08 0.59 5.72 10.21
7.00 8.49 66 9 13.64% 1.02 0.94 66 31 46.97% 1.08 0.56 6.24 9.46
8.50 11.99 98 3 3.06% 0.30 0.02 95 34 35.79% 0.98 0.91 -26.05 -26.58
12.00 16.50 85 9 10.59% 1.43 0.26 85 24 28.24% 0.99 0.95 25.68 30.21
16.51 26.00 50 5 10.00% 1.91 0.13 49 10 20.41% 0.95 0.84 42.08 84.15
26.01   57 1 1.75% 0.74 0.76 57 9 15.79% 1.48 0.21 17.56 30.81
                           

It looks as if the Weed works up to odds of 1.99 and then between 3.00-4.99 and 6.00-8.49 anything else it looks best to use those that don't survive the weed.

 

Any thoughts?


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