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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
07/02/2020 9:28 am  

Shishkin won yesterday so the Weeded showed a loss of -0.50 Points and the unweeded a loss of -3.00 Points.

Today there are 2 Tracked neither of which survives the weed:

Kempton 15:30 Kilfilum Cross
Chelmsford 19:15 Gold at Midnight

Happy Punting


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
07/02/2020 9:08 pm  

Thank you for keeping us updated with the results.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
08/02/2020 8:51 am  

@admin

I still need to do an analysis of these results so watch this space.

 

 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
08/02/2020 8:54 am  

A quiet day for a Saturday with only 21 tracked (and none of them running in Ireland)

11 Survive the weed:

Newbury 13:15 Chantry House
Newbury 13:15 L'Air Du Vent
Newbury 14:25 Altior
Newbury 15:00 Native River
Newbury 15:35 Never Adapt
Newbury 15:35 Thebannerkingrebel
Newbury 16:10 Mont Des Avaloirs
Newbury 16:10 Highest Sun
Warwick 12:55 One Touch
Warwick 14:05 Precious Cargo
Warwick 15:15 Katpoli

10 don't make it through the weed:

Newbury 13:50 Acey Milan
Newbury 13:50 One for the Team
Newbury 14:25 Kalashnikov
Newbury 15:35 Ciel De Neige
Newbury 15:35 Pic D'Orhy
Newbury 15:35 Harambe
Uttoxeter 14:32 Bignorm
Uttoxeter 15:42 Haldon Hill
Warwick 14:40 Indefatigable
Warwick 15:15 Belami Des Pictons

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
09/02/2020 8:51 am  

Yesterday there were 6 winners (Chantry House, Altior, Native River, One For The Team, Pic D'Orhy & Indefatigable) alongside 2 places (Mont Des Avaloirs & Ciel De Neige) which resulted in the Weeded showing a loss of -5.29 Points and the Unweeded a Profit of +20.25 (largely due to Pic D'Orhy which drifted to 33-1)

With the Abandonment of Exeter today (originally 6 Tracked here) there are 2 left at Punchestown. 1 Survives the Weed and 1 doesn't.

Weeded:

Punchestown 4:55 Ferny Hollow

 

Unweeded:

Punchestown 3:50 Dunvegan

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
11/02/2020 8:54 am  

Fingers crossed that Punchestown goes ahead today - there are 5 Tracked horse today -

2 Survive the weed:

Punchestown 15:30 Early Doors
Punchestown 16:35 Ferny Hollow

3 Don't survive the weed:

Newcastle 16:20 Waiting for Richie
Newcastle 19:50 Dutch Pursuit
Punchestown 15:30 Dunvegan

Happy Punting


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
11/02/2020 10:20 am  

@johnwaters1965 would you be kind enough to remind me what the process of weeding is?

 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
11/02/2020 10:26 am  

@admin

Michael - I weed them by selecting those that are in the "Places" on the Rating the Races Ratings - so it can be between 1st-4th on the RTR Ratings depending how many places the bookies are paying (excluding extra place races).

 

Looks like I had no luck with Punchestown being abandoned due to Snow so just got the 2 Each Way bets at Newcastle. (Normally 5-1 or better I'll go e/w)

 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
12/02/2020 8:59 am  

Nothing to show for yesterday so a loss of -2.00 Points.

Today only 1 survives the weather - it also survives the weed:

Kempton 5:30 Omnivega

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Posts: 593
13/02/2020 8:04 am  

Omnivega won yesterday for a profit on the day of +2.00 Points.

Again only one survives the weather and it survives the weed -

Leicester 3:30 First Flow

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
14/02/2020 7:59 am  

Yesterday saw a 100% Strike Rate with First Flow winning for a profit on the day of +0.73 Points.

Today there were 5 Tracked (Faustinovick, Saint De Vassy, Danny Kirwan, Lossiemouth & Iconic Muddle) sadly Sandown didn't survive the weather.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
15/02/2020 9:11 am  

Today I've lost 3 due to the loss of Wincanton but, nevertheless, have 18 Tracked 8 Survive the Weed and 10 don't.

Surviving the Weed:

Ascot 13:15 Master Debonair
Ascot 15:35 Cyrname
Haydock 13:30 Emitom
Haydock 15:50 Kilbricken Storm
Gowran 13:44 Cilaos Emery
Gowran 13:44 Darasso
Gowran 14:54 Real Steel
Gowran 14:54 Chris's Dream

Not Surviving the Weed:

Ascot 15:00 The Con Man
Ascot 15:00 Prudhomme
Ascot 15:00 Eden Du Houx
Ascot 15:35 Traffic Fluide
Haydock 13:30 Glinger Flame
Haydock 14:05 West Approach
Haydock 15:15 Elegant Escape
Haydock 15:50 Young Bull
Lingfield 14:35 Harry's Bar
Gowran 14:54 Shattered Love

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
16/02/2020 8:39 am  

4 Winners Yesterday (Emitom, Cilaos Emery, Chris's Dream & Harrys Bar) together with 1 Place (Shattered Love) saw the Weeded make a profit of +2.67 Points, the unweeded a loss of -2.15 Points.

 

Today only 3 survive the weather and all are in the 1:50 at Navan.

Surviving the Weed: Penhill

Not surviving the Weed: Tiger Roll & Darasso

Just so your aware I'm now tracking the 2 sets of bets seperately and I've eliminated races outside UK & Ireland. I'll review again at the end of June. Until then I'll keep you informed daily of bets & outcomes and monthly of the set of results.

Happy Punting 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
17/02/2020 8:56 am  

Penhill placed yesterday to give the Weeded a profit of +0.05 Points.

Darasso was a Non Runner to leave the unWeeded showing a loss of -1.00 Points on the day.

 

Today there is only one tracked that doesn't survive the weed - Carlisle 2:15 No Regrets

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Honorable Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
17/02/2020 1:47 pm  

Here is the current analysis (as at End of January) for my Tracked Horses https://www.dropbox.com/s/6jqsa51ju0c7ikn/Tracked%20Records%20-Analysis%20-%20Step%202.ods?dl=0

 

The Breakdown into weeded & unweeded at various Betting Ranges looks "interesting" to me:

All Tracked                          
                           
Lowest Odds Highest Odds Bets Wins S/R A/E Chi2 Place Bets Places Places S/R Places A/E Places Chi2 P/L ROI
  1.99 98 64 65.31% 1.01 0.90 - - - - - 3.80 3.88
2.00 2.99 109 47 43.12% 1.04 0.67 - - - - - 4.81 1.76
3.00 3.99 121 38 31.40% 1.05 0.73 - - - - - 8.50 7.02
4.00 4.99 83 19 22.89% 0.98 0.94 - - - - - 0.12 0.14
5.00 5.99 66 11 16.67% 0.87 0.60 40 19 47.50% 0.92 0.62 -5.17 -7.84
6.00 6.99 90 15 16.67% 1.03 0.89 90 49 54.44% 1.11 0.29 8.98 9.98
7.00 8.49 93 14 15.05% 1.13 0.63 92 42 45.65% 1.05 0.66 15.97 17.17
8.50 11.99 115 4 3.48% 0.34 0.02 112 40 35.71% 0.98 0.87 -29.73 -25.85
12.00 16.50 95 9 9.47% 1.28 0.46 95 27 28.42% 1.00 0.98 21.63 22.77
16.51 26.00 73 6 8.22% 1.67 0.19 72 15 20.83% 1.02 0.93 30.45 41.72
26.01   57 1 1.75% 0.74 0.76 57 9 15.79% 1.48 0.21 17.56 30.81
                           
Weeded                          
                           
Lowest Odds Highest Odds Bets Wins S/R A/E Chi2 Place Bets Places Places S/R Places A/E Places Chi2 P/L ROI
  1.99 80 52 65.00% 1.01 0.95 - - - - - 2.62 3.28
2.00 2.99 78 33 42.31% 1.02 0.90 - - - - - -0.62 -0.79
3.00 3.99 86 31 36.05% 1.20 0.23 - - - - - 19.75 22.97
4.00 4.99 42 12 28.57% 1.23 0.42 - - - - - 8.52 20.28
5.00 5.99 26 3 11.54% 0.60 0.32 14 4 28.57% 0.55 0.08 -10.90 -41.92
6.00 6.99 35 7 20.00% 1.24 0.53 35 20 57.14% 1.17 0.34 8.76 25.02
7.00 8.49 27 6 22.22% 1.65 0.18 26 12 46.15% 1.06 0.79 9.73 36.02
8.50 11.99 17 1 5.88% 0.56 0.53 17 6 35.29% 0.96 0.89 -3.67 -21.61
12.00 16.50 10 0 0.00% 0.00 0.37 10 2 20.00% 0.70 0.56 -6.15 -61.50
16.51 26.00 7 1 14.29% 2.70 0.29 7 3 42.86% 1.97 0.18 -0.15 -2.14
26.01   - - - - - - - - - - - -
                           
UnWeeded                          
                           
Lowest Odds Highest Odds Bets Wins S/R A/E Chi2 Place Bets Places Places S/R Places A/E Places Chi2 P/L ROI
  1.99 17 11 64.71% 1.01 0.97 - - - - - 0.78 4.59
2.00 2.99 32 14 43.75% 1.09 0.67 - - - - - 1.54 4.81
3.00 3.99 35 7 20.00% 0.67 0.21 - - - - - -11.25 -32.14
4.00 4.99 42 7 16.67% 0.72 0.31 - - - - - -8.00 -19.05
5.00 5.99 39 7 17.95% 0.94 0.85 26 14 53.85% 1.04 0.81 0.23 0.58
6.00 6.99 56 9 16.07% 1.00 0.99 55 29 52.73% 1.08 0.59 5.72 10.21
7.00 8.49 66 9 13.64% 1.02 0.94 66 31 46.97% 1.08 0.56 6.24 9.46
8.50 11.99 98 3 3.06% 0.30 0.02 95 34 35.79% 0.98 0.91 -26.05 -26.58
12.00 16.50 85 9 10.59% 1.43 0.26 85 24 28.24% 0.99 0.95 25.68 30.21
16.51 26.00 50 5 10.00% 1.91 0.13 49 10 20.41% 0.95 0.84 42.08 84.15
26.01   57 1 1.75% 0.74 0.76 57 9 15.79% 1.48 0.21 17.56 30.81
                           

It looks as if the Weed works up to odds of 1.99 and then between 3.00-4.99 and 6.00-8.49 anything else it looks best to use those that don't survive the weed.

 

Any thoughts?


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