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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 767
01/07/2020 5:52 pm  

Here's the end of June Summary https://www.dropbox.com/s/kjla8f5l1kdfp95/Tracked%20Records.ods?dl=0

 

There seem to be a few problems in that the Combined Sheet has different totals to the seperate sheets - I guess I'll have to spend a Sunday afternoon going through it all to spot where the mismatches are. 

For those new to the site I started off just publishing my daily Tracked horses shortly after joining the site (now almost 12 months ago) - In the middle of August I found I was getting too many (losing) selections for my liking so decided to look for a way to weed out some of the losers and so increase my profitability - the way I decided to work was to use the Rating the Races Rankings (another website I'm subscribed to) I decided to use the standard bookmaker place terms as the cut off so, most of the time, I would only be looking at the top 3 in the RTR Ratings - however as I already had the betting bank set up (200 Points which I'd reset when I started publishing my selections) I thought the easiest thing to do would be take off 100 Points and set up a second bank for the Weeded bets - I could then run both sets  side by side for 3 months and keep both running as a test.

 

So, waiting until the end of November to do a proper analysis, I discovered  that the Weeded selections were showing a small loss over that period (although the A/E was favourable so I wasn't really worried) while the UnWeeded were running at a 40 point+ profit for the same period with an A/E just under 1.00 - I needed to dig deeper and I found that the Each Way bets were making a huge difference to the UnWeeded results.

I've been meaning for a while to sit down and do an anlysis by prices for each set of data to see if I can see what is happening - I guess that'll have to come sooner rather than later.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Posts: 767
02/07/2020 8:34 am  

Yesterday saw Wins for  Enemy Coast Ahead & Sangha River and places for Cozone & Byron Flyer resulting in a Profit for the weeded of +0.50 Points and a loss for the UnWeeded of -1.25 Points.

Only 1 Selection today which survives the Weed - Wolverhampton 5:00 Magic J

 

Happy Punting


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
02/07/2020 11:37 am  
Posted by: @johnwaters1965

There seem to be a few problems in that the Combined Sheet has different totals to the seperate sheets - I guess I'll have to spend a Sunday afternoon going through it all to spot where the mismatches are. 

Ah the joy of finding the error in an Excel spreadsheet!

Thank you for the detailed update and overview, it's been wonderful to follow this thread. Maintaining a 5% advantage on your weeded selections over this period of time is brilliant, I hope you're recognising that 🙂 and you're doing it with a great strike rate as well.

I've been meaning for a while to sit down and do an anlysis by prices for each set of data to see if I can see what is happening - I guess that'll have to come sooner rather than later.

I'm really looking forward to hearing the results of this as I think it will make a big difference to the unweeded. Be careful about doing too much more on the weeded, with an average of 2 selections a day making a 12% ROI, there's very little I would change in this approach except to stake for maximum bankroll growth.

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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 767
03/07/2020 8:00 am  

Magic J was missing a little bit of sparkle as he could only finish 2nd so -1.0 Point for the Weeded.

 

Today there are 6 Selections - 2 of which survive the weed:

Haydock 12:00 Anfield Girl
Haydock 13:00 Esprit Rose

 

The UnWeeded:

Chepstow 15:20 Nelson River
Haydock 13:00 Godfather
Wolverhampton 18:30 Marina Grove
Wolverhampton 19:00 Klopp

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 767
04/07/2020 9:16 am  

All I had to show for yesterday was a place for Anfield Girl so a loss on the day for the Weeded of -0.90 Points and on the UnWeeded of -4.0 Points.

 

Onwards and upwards today brings 15 tracked horses, 5 of which survive the weed:

Chelmsford 20:10 Tenbury Wells
Epsom 16:55 Vatican City
Haydock 15:50 Poet's Lady
Haydock 16:25 First Impression
Naas 17:45 Art Power

 

The UnWeeded:

Chelmsford 18:10 Yes Always
Chelmsford 19:10 Young John
Epsom 15:00 Sucellus
Epsom 15:40 Gold Wand
Epsom 15:40 Ennistymon
Epsom 16:55 Mogul
Epsom 16:55 Emissary
Haydock 13:00 Lady Calcaria
Haydock 16:25 Louganini
Naas 15:05 Harry Speed

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
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05/07/2020 9:49 am  

Yesterday produced 4 Winners (Tenbury Wells, Poets Lady, Art Power & Louganini) as well as 2 Places (Ennistymon & Harry Speed). Overalll the results were the Weeded showed a profit of +8.67 Points and the UnWeeded of +1.65 Points - very happy for a Saturday with so many Class races.

 

Today there are 15 Selections, 5 Survive the Weed:

Doncaster 17:35 Stonific
Haydock 13:00 Brad The Brief
Haydock 14:40 Manuela De Vega
Sandown 14:25 Cross Counter
Sandown 15:35 Enable

 

The UnWeeded:

Cork 17:15 Search For A Song
Haydock 14:05 Punctuation
Haydock 15:50 Concierge
Haydock 15:50 Cold Stare
Sandown 13:50 Tinto
Sandown 15:00 Acquitted
Sandown 15:35 Japan
Sandown 15:35 Bangkok
Sandown 15:35 Japan
Sandown 16:05 Dubai Warrior

 

Additionally today threw up 4 running t Chantilly - 2:10 Ocean Atlantique & Ecrivain, 2:55 Fancy Blue & Peaceful - I'll have a look at the prices later and see if there's any combo's I fancy from these (they aren't part of the System however as I got rid of Runners outside of UK & Ireland last year) 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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06/07/2020 8:53 am  

1 Winner (Manuela De Vega) and 4 Places (Stonific, Punctuation, Cold Stare & Tinto) yesterday resulting in a loss for the Weeded of -0.92 Points and for the UnWeeded of -2.10 Points.

 

7 Tracked today 4 Survive the Weed:

Ayr 13:40 Quick Look
Ayr 14:45 El Naseri
Thirsk 19:30 Montather
Windsor 20:15 Heaven Forfend

 

The UnWeeded:

Ayr 13:40 Tricky Dicky
Ayr 16:15 One Last Hug
Uttoxeter 16:00 Whiskey And Water

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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07/07/2020 9:04 am  

Yesterdays results - a win for Montather and places for One Last Hug & Whiskey And Water.

Result was a loss on the day for The Weeded of -2.53 Points and a profit for the UnWeeded of +1.50 Points.

 

Anyway 9 Tracked today, 4 survive the Weed:

Killarney 18:00 Paloma Blue
Killarney 19:00 Galvin
Pontefract 14:50 Frankelio
Roscommon 15:30 Pondus

 

The UnWeeded:

Killarney 18:00 Peregrine Run
Killarney 18:00 Dinons
Killarney 18:30 Ornua
Leicester 18:45 Global Art
Pontefract 13:50 Harry Love

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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08/07/2020 9:19 am  

There were 3 Winners yesterday (Galvin, Pondus & Peregrine Run) 1 Place (Ornua) and a Non Runner (Frankellio) meaning a profit for the Weeded of +0.77 Points and a loss for the UnWeeded of -0.90 Points.

Anyway only 3 Tracked today amd they all survive the Weed:

Newbury 18:10 Bill The Butcher
Newbury 19:40 Darain
Ripon 14:40 Frankelio

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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09/07/2020 8:39 am  

2 Winners yesterday (Bill The Butcher & Darain) saw a profit of +10.60 Points.

 

9 Tracked horses today 5 survive the weed:

Newmarket 12:45 Woven
Newmarket 13:50 Al Suhail
Newmarket 14:25 Miss Yoda
York 15:15 Highest Ground
York 15:45 Rhythmic Intent

 

The UnWeeded:

Newmarket 15:35 Brad The Brief
York 13:30 Ulshaw Bridge
York 15:15 Encipher
York 16:50 Graceful Lady

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Posts: 767
10/07/2020 9:54 am  

Two winners yesterday (Al Suhail & Rhythmic Intent) along with a Non Runner (Brad The Brief) so a profit on the day for The Weeded of +2.31 and a loss for the UnWeeded of -3.00 Points. Also hands up to a mistake - Miss Yoda was the Third Ranked in the RtR Ratings but there were less than 8 Runners so I really should have have only had her there if she was top two - never mind having declared her as Weeded I've left her there.

 

Today there are 10 tracked horses 6 of which survive the Weed:

Curragh 19:45 Dalton Highway
Kilbeggan 17:55 Supasundae
Newmarket 13:50 Human Nature
Newmarket 15:00 Ghostwatch
Newmarket 15:35 Enemy
Newmarket 16:10 Terebellum

 

The UnWeeded:

Bath 20:05 Roy Rocket
Newmarket 13:50 Typhoon Ten
Newmarket 13:50 Candelisa
Newmarket 15:00 Sam Cooke

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Posts: 767
11/07/2020 10:18 am  

Only had a Place (Ghostwatch) and 3 Non Runners (Dalton Highway, Supasundae & Enemy) to show yesterday meaning a loss for the Weeded of -1.51 Points and for the UnWeeded of -4.00 Points.

 

There are 18 Tracked today 6 of which survive the Weed:

Ascot 14:40 Celestran
Ascot 15:15 Skardu
Ascot 15:15 San Donato
Newmarket 12:10 Country
Newmarket 15:35 Golden Horde
Newmarket 16:10 Blown By Wind

 

The UnWeeded:

Ascot 14:05 Sky Lake
Ascot 15:15 Mohaather
Ascot 15:50 Lahore
Ascot 15:50 Justanotherbottle
Newcastle 16:50 Guipure
Newmarket 15:35 Oxted
Newmarket 15:35 Threat
Newmarket 16:10 Blackheath
Newmarket 16:10 Kimifive
Salisbury 19:15 Zuba
Salisbury 19:45 Heart Reef

 

Happy Punting


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 767
11/07/2020 8:40 pm  

I took advantage of the Cricket on TV this afternoon (Commentary on the Radio and vision on the TV) to start looking at a breakdown of the Odds/etc for the UnWeeded up to the end of June.

Initially I looked at the Wins:

From To P/L   Bets Wins Strike Rate A/E
  2.75 £13.27   53 27 50.94% 1.04
2.76 3.99 -£58.75   48 10 20.83% 0.70
4.00 4.50 -£37.50   57 11 19.30% 0.82
4.51 5.75 £65.39   66 15 22.73% 1.18
5.76 6.25 -£18.52   42 5 11.90% 0.71
6.26 6.99 £86.63   32 8 25.00% 1.63
7.00 7.75 -£83.37   57 4 7.02% 0.50
7.76 8.25 £45.46   41 7 17.07% 1.37
8.26 9.25 -£104.04   64 2 3.13% 0.27
9.26 10.49 -£27.08   46 3 6.52% 0.65
10.50 11.49 -£58.75   46 1 2.17% 0.24
11.50 12.49 -£23.74   41 3 7.32% 0.88
12.50 13.49 £25.00   45 3 6.67% 0.87
13.50 16.50 £138.63   56 7 12.50% 1.86
16.51 20.50 £30.38   54 4 7.41% 1.30
20.51 25.50 £191.45   44 3 6.82% 1.48
25.51 32.50 -£92.87   55 1 1.82% 0.49
32.51 45.50 £133.31   50 1 2.00% 0.73
45.51   £245.50   45 2 4.44% 2.95

As you can see a bit of a mix - there seems to be mainly profit from Odds of 12.50 upwards although I would be cautious as teh A/E isn't over 1.00 for the whole of this. Also the Place Betting has an impact -

From To Place Bets Places Place SR Place A/E
  2.75        
2.76 3.99 2 0 0.00% 0.00
4.00 4.50 1 0 0.00% 0.00
4.51 5.75 38 19 50.00% 0.95
5.76 6.25 42 23 54.76% 1.10
6.26 6.99 32 14 43.75% 0.92
7.00 7.75 57 21 36.84% 0.82
7.76 8.25 41 18 43.90% 1.06
8.26 9.25 61 24 39.34% 1.01
9.26 10.49 46 17 36.96% 1.03
10.50 11.49 45 14 31.11% 0.94
11.50 12.49 41 11 26.83% 0.86
12.50 13.49 44 17 38.64% 1.31
13.50 16.50 55 12 21.82% 0.83
16.51 20.50 54 10 18.52% 0.80
20.51 25.50 44 10 22.73% 1.18
25.51 32.50 55 6 10.91% 0.68
32.51 45.50 50 12 24.00% 1.96
45.51   44 4 9.09% 1.29

Now don't ask me why I bet each way at odds of less than 4.50 but there you go.

Initial thoughts Win bets below 2.75? Some sort of Place Only or 80/20 above 12.50?

 

Anybody got any thoughts/suggestions? Even if it is about possible other breakdowns (Handicap/Non Handicap, Flat/AW/Hurdle/Chase?)

 

 


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 767
12/07/2020 9:11 am  

3 Winners yesterday (Country, Mohaather & Oxted) and 2 Places (San Donato & Zuba) resulted in profit for the Weeded of +2.10 Points and +5.60 Points for the UnWeeded.

 

Only 2 Tracked today in UK & Ireland (2 also running at Deauville) neither of which survive the Weed:

Bangor 15:45 Dear Sire
Bangor 15:45 Neverbeen To Paris

 

Happy Punting


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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
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Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 965
12/07/2020 12:48 pm  

Looking good John, if it is making a profit I would be tempted not to over analyse. However it may be worth looking at splitting between Irish and UK, in general the over-rounds tend to be higher so, everything else being equal, they should offer less value.


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