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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Estimable Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 249
29/11/2019 12:10 pm  

With an A/E of 2.08 it would be difficult not to make a profit.


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Mick McCormack
(@mickmccormack)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 846
29/11/2019 1:40 pm  

@andrewp

My winners will include place wins , so not sure that is distorting the figures and I don't write the formulas for my spread sheets its one of Michael's (Wilding).

expected winners is runners (58)*expected strike rate(13.21)

expected strike rate is 1/7.57(average odds)


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Estimable Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 249
29/11/2019 4:25 pm  

expected strike rate is 1/average odds

expected winners is runners x expected strike rate

The formulas look flawed to me.

odds (decimal) Exptd Winners
2 0.5
2 0.5
2 0.5
100 0.01
  1.51

Average odds = 26.5
1/Average odds = 0.038
0.038 x 4 runners =0.15 expected winners?

 

 


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Mick McCormack
(@mickmccormack)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 846
30/11/2019 10:48 am  

@andrewp

I’ll drop a copy on here and maybe you can check it out for me ??


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Mick McCormack
(@mickmccormack)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 846
30/11/2019 10:52 am  

Contenders and selections for 30/11/2019

Newbury

13:50

contenders

Soul Emotion

Snow Leopardess

Dan Mcgrue

Selection

Soul Emotion @ 12.0 e/w 5 places

14:25

Contenders

Scarlet Dragon

Elvis Mail

Epatante

French Crusader

Selection

Elvis Mail @ 8.0 e/w 4 places


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Estimable Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 249
30/11/2019 4:12 pm  

I’ll drop a copy on here and maybe you can check it out for me ??

I'd be happy to take a look Mick.

 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1000
02/12/2019 11:23 am  

Always possible there's a mistake on the spreadsheet, I do my best but sometimes they slip in. I can't see where you're getting the 2.08 stat from.

These look okay:

7.70 Average Losing Odds
6.82 Average Winning Odds
7.62 Average Odds

112 Losers
42 Winners
154 Runners
27.27% Strike Rate
13.12% Expected Strike Rate
20.20 Expected Winners


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Mick McCormack
(@mickmccormack)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 846
02/12/2019 12:06 pm  

Contenders and selections for 02/12/2019

Plumpton

13:30

contenders

Miss Tynte

The Wicket Chicken

July Les Buxy

Selection

Jully Les Buxy @ 5.0

 

15:00

Contenders

Stormingin

Scutinise

Sadma

selection

Sadma @ 4.33

 


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Estimable Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 249
02/12/2019 4:24 pm  

 I can't see where you're getting the 2.08 stat from.

112 Losers
42 Winners
154 Runners
27.27% Strike Rate
13.12% Expected Strike Rate
20.20 Expected Winners

42/20.20 = 2.08


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1000
02/12/2019 9:05 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

 I can't see where you're getting the 2.08 stat from.

112 Losers
42 Winners
154 Runners
27.27% Strike Rate
13.12% Expected Strike Rate
20.20 Expected Winners

42/20.20 = 2.08

🤭that would make sense!

I assume that the spreadsheet is doing Expected Winners as Runners * Expected Strike Rate, not sure why as I would usually do the sum of the probabilities of the odds of all runners, so could be something across those two Expected figures. 

Not sure which spreadsheet Mick is using, I've made a number over the years. As long as it gets checked and corrected if not right. I would expect to be in profit over 42 winners with an edge of 2.08 as well, although I have seen occasionally methods where that wouldn't be the case.


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