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(@michael-clarke)
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Now November is here I will put my flat systems to bed and concentrate on NH.

It has been one of my best flat seasons ever with 321 winners from 981 selections and a LSP of 128 points with a best priced winner of 20/1. It did deteriorate towards the end of the season though with a loss of 20 points over the last 135 selections.

I will be applying the same logic to my NH systems so hopefully the profits will continue.

The system I will track on here relates to handicaps and the rules are :-

Days since last run > 27

Age < 7

SP < 20/1

Forecast odds > 15/8.

Over the last 6 years there have been 8,683 selections with 1,276 winners. The AE has been 1.14 with a ROI of 12% to proportional stakes.

This often results in more than 1 selection in a race. I don't like betting more than 1 horse in a race so in these situations I will take the selection that is the shortest in the betting.

I will also use this trial to analyse the returns from the various betting options, i.e.

Best odds night before with BET365 or BOYLESPORTS (these 2 offer BOG the night before)

Best odds in the morning with BOG

Betfair SP

I will also look at various options of determining the optimum requested price.

 


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(@michael-clarke)
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Tomorrow's selections.

TIME  C_Name Horse EP 
1.10 Hereford Quivvy Lough 5.50
1.55 Plumpton Little Rory Mac 3.50
2.30 Plumpton Avoir De Soins 10.00
2.45 Hereford Eclair Surf 7.00
3.05 Plumpton Cawthorne Lad 5.50
3.55 Hereford Fair Kate 4.00
4.10 Plumpton The Darley Lama 3.33

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(@andrewp)
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I look forward to following this Michael. I'm not sure if Stuart will post on this thread again but you may want to start another just for this.  I presume it's hurdles only.

Here are the early Betfair prices and book percentages,

    Betfair  
Quivvy Lough 5.5 7 113%
Little Rory Mac 3.5 5 104%
Avoir De Soins 10 7 109%
Eclair Surf 7 9.5 107%
Cawthorne Lad 5.5 8.5 108%
Fair Kate 4 5 103%
The Darley Lama 3.33 3.75 105%

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(@mikeywilding)
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I'm looking forward to following this as well. I've just put it into it's own thread 🙂

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(@michael-clarke)
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Posted by: @andrewp

I presume it's hurdles only.

It does apply to both hurdles and chases although because of the age restriction the majority (about 75%) will be hurdlers.

Interestingly the chases are more profitable with an AE of 1.22 compared to 1.08 for the hurdlers.


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(@andrewp)
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Over the last 6 years there have been 8,683 selections with 1,276 winners. The AE has been 1.14 with a ROI of 12% to proportional stakes.

Are these figures to prices you have taken Michael?


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(@michael-clarke)
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These are all based on BSP.


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(@michael-clarke)
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A blank day to start with.

DATE C_Name TIME  Horse EP 
03-Nov Exeter 2.25 Esprit Du Large 7.50
03-Nov Exeter 3.25 Fortescue 6.50
03-Nov Exeter 4.25 Lucky's Dream 2.75
03-Nov Fairyhouse 3.15 Mattie's Mountain 5.50
03-Nov Fairyhouse 3.45 Northern Love 7.50
This post was modified 4 months ago by MICHAEL CLARKE

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(@michael-clarke)
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A winner and 3 losers for a profit of 2.5 points. Total loss 4.5 points.

DATE C_Name TIME  Horse SYSTEM EP 
04-Nov Musselburgh 0.50 Armattiekan AB 9.00
04-Nov Musselburgh 1.50 Del Duque A 3.33
04-Nov Musselburgh 2.50 Raymond AB 4.00
04-Nov Musselburgh 3.20 The Bees Knees A 1.75

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(@michael-clarke)
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3 winners and a loser for a profit of 14.1 points. Total profit now 9.6 points.

DATE C_Name TIME  Horse EP 
05-Nov Market Rasen 1.37 Subway Surf 3.33
05-Nov Market Rasen 2.40 Mabela 5.00
05-Nov Market Rasen 3.15 Roses Poses 1.63
05-Nov Market Rasen 3.50 Prussia With Love 4.00
05-Nov Newbury 0.20 Playa Blanca 4.00
05-Nov Newbury 2.30 Present Chief 5.00
05-Nov Newbury 3.05 Redford Road 6.00
05-Nov Sedgefield 1.15 Small Present 2.75
05-Nov Sedgefield 2.50 Exelerator Express 2.25
05-Nov Sedgefield 3.25 Let's Sway 8.00
05-Nov Thurles 0.47 Niccolai 12.00
05-Nov Thurles 1.52 Nodoubtaboutthat 3.50
05-Nov Thurles 2.22 Amor Verdadero 5.00

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(@michael-clarke)
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A blank day today.

DATE C_Name TIME  Horse EP 
06-Nov Fontwell 2.00 Eglantier 9.00
06-Nov Fontwell 3.10 Gustavian 3.00
06-Nov Hexham 1.10 Barnay 6.00
06-Nov Hexham 2.20 Knight Destroyer 2.00
06-Nov Hexham 2.55 The Very Thing 2.25
06-Nov Hexham 3.30 A Ladies Milan 6.00
06-Nov Warwick 1.35 King D'Argent 2.75

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(@michael-clarke)
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Another blank day.

DATE C_Name TIME  Horse EP 
07-Nov Aintree 1.00 Quoi De Neuf 4.00
07-Nov Aintree 1.35 Yes No Maybe So 7.50
07-Nov Kelso 1.07 The Distant Lady 5.00
07-Nov Kelso 1.42 Exit To Where 4.50
07-Nov Kelso 2.52 Be The Difference 9.00
07-Nov Kelso 3.27 Mister Manduro 7.00
07-Nov Wincanton 0.40 Oleg 1.88
07-Nov Wincanton 1.50 Cill Anna 5.00

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(@michael-clarke)
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Another blank day. 

COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
Ffos Las 4.25 Sexy Lot 4.00
Navan 1.35 Elwood 12.00
Navan 3.20 Mig Des Taillons 7.00
Sandown 0.40 Espalion 3.33
Sandown 3.00 Mister Coffey 1.38
Stratford 0.20 Dan Gun 14.00
Stratford 0.50 Arizona Glory 9.00
Stratford 1.25 Miss Gemstone 2.50
Stratford 2.35 Prince Llywelyn 4.00
Stratford 3.10 Lady Cylla 9.00
Stratford 3.40 Enforcement 16.00

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(@michael-clarke)
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2 winners and 8 losers for a loss of 2 points. Total loss 20.4 points.

COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
Carlisle 1.50 Champagne Terri 3.00
Chepstow 1.00 Spirit Of Rome 2.75
Chepstow 1.30 Darksideoftarnside 3.33
Chepstow 2.40 Mac Kayla 12.00
Chepstow 3.10 Coconut Splash 4.00
Kempton 1.10 Captain Blackpearl 3.50
Kempton 2.15 Yccs Portocervo 6.00
Kempton 3.53 Perfect Grace 7.50

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(@michael-clarke)
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2 winners and 6 losers for a profit of 1.83 points. Total loss 18.57 points.

COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
Fairyhouse 2.00 Maid In Manhattan 6.50
Fairyhouse 2.30 Ballela Storm 12.00
Fairyhouse 3.00 Our Majella 4.00
Hereford 1.37 Adjourned 6.00
Hereford 2.07 Highest Sun 6.00
Hereford 3.37 Flou Artsistique 4.50
Huntingdon 1.15 Fibonacci 2.00
Huntingdon 1.45 Blacko 3.50
Huntingdon 2.45 Akkapenko 4.00
Huntingdon 3.15 Inawhilecrocodile 4.00
Lingfield 1.53 High Up In The Air 7.00
Lingfield 2.23 Darkest Day 8.00
Lingfield 3.23 Getaround 2.50

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