Now November is here I will put my flat systems to bed and concentrate on NH.
It has been one of my best flat seasons ever with 321 winners from 981 selections and a LSP of 128 points with a best priced winner of 20/1. It did deteriorate towards the end of the season though with a loss of 20 points over the last 135 selections.
I will be applying the same logic to my NH systems so hopefully the profits will continue.
The system I will track on here relates to handicaps and the rules are :-
Days since last run > 27
Age < 7
SP < 20/1
Forecast odds > 15/8.
Over the last 6 years there have been 8,683 selections with 1,276 winners. The AE has been 1.14 with a ROI of 12% to proportional stakes.
This often results in more than 1 selection in a race. I don't like betting more than 1 horse in a race so in these situations I will take the selection that is the shortest in the betting.
I will also use this trial to analyse the returns from the various betting options, i.e.
Best odds night before with BET365 or BOYLESPORTS (these 2 offer BOG the night before)
Best odds in the morning with BOG
Betfair SP
I will also look at various options of determining the optimum requested price.
Tomorrow's selections.
| TIME | C_Name | Horse | EP |
| 1.10 | Hereford | Quivvy Lough | 5.50 |
| 1.55 | Plumpton | Little Rory Mac | 3.50 |
| 2.30 | Plumpton | Avoir De Soins | 10.00 |
| 2.45 | Hereford | Eclair Surf | 7.00 |
| 3.05 | Plumpton | Cawthorne Lad | 5.50 |
| 3.55 | Hereford | Fair Kate | 4.00 |
| 4.10 | Plumpton | The Darley Lama | 3.33 |
I look forward to following this Michael. I'm not sure if Stuart will post on this thread again but you may want to start another just for this. I presume it's hurdles only.
Here are the early Betfair prices and book percentages,
| Betfair | |||
| Quivvy Lough | 5.5 | 7 | 113% |
| Little Rory Mac | 3.5 | 5 | 104% |
| Avoir De Soins | 10 | 7 | 109% |
| Eclair Surf | 7 | 9.5 | 107% |
| Cawthorne Lad | 5.5 | 8.5 | 108% |
| Fair Kate | 4 | 5 | 103% |
| The Darley Lama | 3.33 | 3.75 | 105% |
I presume it's hurdles only.
It does apply to both hurdles and chases although because of the age restriction the majority (about 75%) will be hurdlers.
Interestingly the chases are more profitable with an AE of 1.22 compared to 1.08 for the hurdlers.
Over the last 6 years there have been 8,683 selections with 1,276 winners. The AE has been 1.14 with a ROI of 12% to proportional stakes.
Are these figures to prices you have taken Michael?
These are all based on BSP.
A blank day to start with.
| DATE | C_Name | TIME | Horse | EP |
| 03-Nov | Exeter | 2.25 | Esprit Du Large | 7.50 |
| 03-Nov | Exeter | 3.25 | Fortescue | 6.50 |
| 03-Nov | Exeter | 4.25 | Lucky's Dream | 2.75 |
| 03-Nov | Fairyhouse | 3.15 | Mattie's Mountain | 5.50 |
| 03-Nov | Fairyhouse | 3.45 | Northern Love | 7.50 |
A winner and 3 losers for a profit of 2.5 points. Total loss 4.5 points.
| DATE | C_Name | TIME | Horse | SYSTEM | EP |
| 04-Nov | Musselburgh | 0.50 | Armattiekan | AB | 9.00 |
| 04-Nov | Musselburgh | 1.50 | Del Duque | A | 3.33 |
| 04-Nov | Musselburgh | 2.50 | Raymond | AB | 4.00 |
| 04-Nov | Musselburgh | 3.20 | The Bees Knees | A | 1.75 |
3 winners and a loser for a profit of 14.1 points. Total profit now 9.6 points.
| DATE | C_Name | TIME | Horse | EP |
| 05-Nov | Market Rasen | 1.37 | Subway Surf | 3.33 |
| 05-Nov | Market Rasen | 2.40 | Mabela | 5.00 |
| 05-Nov | Market Rasen | 3.15 | Roses Poses | 1.63 |
| 05-Nov | Market Rasen | 3.50 | Prussia With Love | 4.00 |
| 05-Nov | Newbury | 0.20 | Playa Blanca | 4.00 |
| 05-Nov | Newbury | 2.30 | Present Chief | 5.00 |
| 05-Nov | Newbury | 3.05 | Redford Road | 6.00 |
| 05-Nov | Sedgefield | 1.15 | Small Present | 2.75 |
| 05-Nov | Sedgefield | 2.50 | Exelerator Express | 2.25 |
| 05-Nov | Sedgefield | 3.25 | Let's Sway | 8.00 |
| 05-Nov | Thurles | 0.47 | Niccolai | 12.00 |
| 05-Nov | Thurles | 1.52 | Nodoubtaboutthat | 3.50 |
| 05-Nov | Thurles | 2.22 | Amor Verdadero | 5.00 |
A blank day today.
| DATE | C_Name | TIME | Horse | EP |
| 06-Nov | Fontwell | 2.00 | Eglantier | 9.00 |
| 06-Nov | Fontwell | 3.10 | Gustavian | 3.00 |
| 06-Nov | Hexham | 1.10 | Barnay | 6.00 |
| 06-Nov | Hexham | 2.20 | Knight Destroyer | 2.00 |
| 06-Nov | Hexham | 2.55 | The Very Thing | 2.25 |
| 06-Nov | Hexham | 3.30 | A Ladies Milan | 6.00 |
| 06-Nov | Warwick | 1.35 | King D'Argent | 2.75 |
Another blank day.
| DATE | C_Name | TIME | Horse | EP |
| 07-Nov | Aintree | 1.00 | Quoi De Neuf | 4.00 |
| 07-Nov | Aintree | 1.35 | Yes No Maybe So | 7.50 |
| 07-Nov | Kelso | 1.07 | The Distant Lady | 5.00 |
| 07-Nov | Kelso | 1.42 | Exit To Where | 4.50 |
| 07-Nov | Kelso | 2.52 | Be The Difference | 9.00 |
| 07-Nov | Kelso | 3.27 | Mister Manduro | 7.00 |
| 07-Nov | Wincanton | 0.40 | Oleg | 1.88 |
| 07-Nov | Wincanton | 1.50 | Cill Anna | 5.00 |
Another blank day.
| COURSE | TIME | SELECTION | ODDS |
| Ffos Las | 4.25 | Sexy Lot | 4.00 |
| Navan | 1.35 | Elwood | 12.00 |
| Navan | 3.20 | Mig Des Taillons | 7.00 |
| Sandown | 0.40 | Espalion | 3.33 |
| Sandown | 3.00 | Mister Coffey | 1.38 |
| Stratford | 0.20 | Dan Gun | 14.00 |
| Stratford | 0.50 | Arizona Glory | 9.00 |
| Stratford | 1.25 | Miss Gemstone | 2.50 |
| Stratford | 2.35 | Prince Llywelyn | 4.00 |
| Stratford | 3.10 | Lady Cylla | 9.00 |
| Stratford | 3.40 | Enforcement | 16.00 |
2 winners and 8 losers for a loss of 2 points. Total loss 20.4 points.
| COURSE | TIME | SELECTION | ODDS |
| Carlisle | 1.50 | Champagne Terri | 3.00 |
| Chepstow | 1.00 | Spirit Of Rome | 2.75 |
| Chepstow | 1.30 | Darksideoftarnside | 3.33 |
| Chepstow | 2.40 | Mac Kayla | 12.00 |
| Chepstow | 3.10 | Coconut Splash | 4.00 |
| Kempton | 1.10 | Captain Blackpearl | 3.50 |
| Kempton | 2.15 | Yccs Portocervo | 6.00 |
| Kempton | 3.53 | Perfect Grace | 7.50 |
2 winners and 6 losers for a profit of 1.83 points. Total loss 18.57 points.
| COURSE | TIME | SELECTION | ODDS |
| Fairyhouse | 2.00 | Maid In Manhattan | 6.50 |
| Fairyhouse | 2.30 | Ballela Storm | 12.00 |
| Fairyhouse | 3.00 | Our Majella | 4.00 |
| Hereford | 1.37 | Adjourned | 6.00 |
| Hereford | 2.07 | Highest Sun | 6.00 |
| Hereford | 3.37 | Flou Artsistique | 4.50 |
| Huntingdon | 1.15 | Fibonacci | 2.00 |
| Huntingdon | 1.45 | Blacko | 3.50 |
| Huntingdon | 2.45 | Akkapenko | 4.00 |
| Huntingdon | 3.15 | Inawhilecrocodile | 4.00 |
| Lingfield | 1.53 | High Up In The Air | 7.00 |
| Lingfield | 2.23 | Darkest Day | 8.00 |
| Lingfield | 3.23 | Getaround | 2.50 |
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