MC's NH System Test
A winner and a loser on Sunday for a profit of 15 points. Total profit 6.43 points.
3 losers on boxing day. Total profit 3.43 points.
So the revised conclusion is that BSP is the best option for odds of 9/2 and above, for odds below 9/2 the best option is to take the best odds the night before with BOG bookmakers.
Based on this conclusion I backed WINGIN A PRAYER at BSP. It returned 3.04 rather than the 16/1 on offer last night. Still a winner's a winner I suppose.
Total profit 5.47.
I have now reviewed December's results and they have been a lot better than the disappointing November results.
There have been 484 runners with 71 winners. The AE was 1.18.
Level stake profit at BSP was 96.57 points (20%). Proportional profit was 18%.
For those selections where they are the only one in the race it has been another profitable month. There have been 82 runners with 14 winners, an AE of 1.31, a LSP of 53.35 points (65%) and a proportional profit of 30%.
The 2 key rules of the system have held up well, DSLR > 27 had an AE of 1.03 and horses aged < 7 having an AE of 1.09.
Overall now for those selections where they are the only one in the race there have been 183 runners with 29 winners, an AE of 1.17, a LSP of 49.33 points (27%) and a proportional profit of 18%.
..where they are the only one in the race there have been 183 runners with 29 winners, an AE of 1.17, a LSP of 49.33 points (27%) and a proportional profit of 18%.
Still a small sample Michael (Chi-square 36%) but heading in the right direction.
My win and Place trial is about halfway through the required sample (of 6,000 bets) but is returning a slight loss to BSP. I need to make time to analyse the full dataset as it doesn't appear to be going anywhere at the moment. It probably needs some sort of price/value criterion.
Thanks Andrew, good luck with your trial. Can you analyse your data by age and DSLR ?
I will just update monthly now rather than post my selections daily, apart from you, me and John there doesn't seem to be any interest in this.