Short Odds Football
Yes on 21/01/2020 it was £880.82.
Bank = £872.34
Stake = £87
A few cup matches tonight from Turkey, Greece and England
5.30pm Galatasaray v Rizespor - Galatasaray to win @ 1.54
5.00pm Lamia v PAOK - PAOK -1.0 AH @ 1.53
7.45pm Tranmere v Watford - Watford to win @ 1.93
Results: Galatasaray won 2-1, PAOK won 1-0 (stakes refunded) but Watford could only draw v Tranmere 1-1.
P&L = -£42.37
Bank = £829.97
Thanks Eamon, I didn't spot the subsequent correction in the total.
The A/E is settling down to around 1.08, an overall advantage of 8% so your selection process looks pretty sound. Staking 10% of bank is a bit rich for my blood given the odds range. You may find your bank fluctuating quite a bit and not getting much beyond 6 losers from square one.
Nevertheless, football is a difficult sport to make money from in my view so any profit/bank growth is commendable in my book.
I agree that it's quite a high percentage but the thought process was to try and grow the bank quickly, using low odds/high probability bets, then drop the percentage down once the bank reaches around £2.5k. Staking £250 on a bet feels quite a lot to me even if the selection process is sound (that old mindset adage).
If the £500 bank busts, I'd replenish it rather than playing conservatively from the start, and taking longer to get to a bigger betting bank.
If I reached £10k I reckon I would be at the 1.5-2% range and in bank preservation mode!!
it's quite a high percentage but the thought process was to try and grow the bank quickly
Unfortunately, that's not how it works Eamon. Increasing the percentage of bank staked does not grow the bank quicker. In fact, it can deplete it quicker depending on how the odds of the selections fall.
Take the extreme of betting 100% of your bank. Great when you win but you will lose everything when you lose. Betting 50% you would lose everything with two consecutive losers or a pattern like WLWLWLWWL with odd-on selections. Betting 25% you would wipe out at 4 consecutive losers or a pattern like WWWLWWLLWWWLL. And so on through all the various percentages.
Coming out on top is a case of balancing the percentage of bank staked with the win/lose pattern (which is related to odds and advantage) and win/lose amounts (also related to odds and advantage).
The quickest way to grow your bank in the long-run is to scale your bets to the odds (known) and your advantage at those odds (estimated). Estimate your edge (conservatively) and divide it by the odds (i.e. odds to one NOT decimal odds which include stake).
Example 1. Odds of 4/5 = 0.8. assume a 1% advantage at these odds. 0.01/0.8 = 0.0125 = 1.25% of bank staked
Example 2. Odds of 1/5 = 0.2. assume a 2% advantage at these odds. 0.02/0.2 = 0.10 = 10% of bank staked
I've attached your current odds/edge picture. Your advantage so far is almost entirely below 0.67 (4/6)
Thanks for the comments and analysis. It's something I will have a look at definitely consider.
P&L = -£27.66
Bank = £801.60
I'm on the train to Cheltenham today so have been doing more racing study than football.
12.45pm Brentford v Leicester - Leicester to win @ 1.74
3.00pm Newcastle v Oxford - Newcastle to win @ 1.54
8.00 Sevilla v Grenada - Sevilla to win @ 1.42