Short Odds Football
 
Notifications
Clear all

Short Odds Football  

Page 9 / 16
  RSS

Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
22/01/2020 5:47 pm  

Bank = £798.22

Stake = £80

Bet 1

Spurs to win @ 4/9

Bet 2

Man Utd to win @ 4/9

Bet 3

Hibs to win @ 8/15

Bet 4

Celtic to win @ 1/3

Bet 5

Juve to win @  8/13

 


ReplyQuote
AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 435
22/01/2020 8:05 pm  

Was the stake lost on the Crewe game £88 or £82.60 Eamon?


ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
22/01/2020 10:16 pm  

Hi Andrew, it was -£88 and was deducted from the bank.

Bet 1

Spurs to win @ 4/9. Result 3-1, WIN

Bet 2

Man Utd to win @ 4/9. Result 0-2, LOSS

Bet 3

Hibs to win @ 8/15. Result 2-1, WIN

Bet 4

Celtic to win @ 1/3. Result 1-3, WIN

Bet 5

Juve to win @  8/13. Result 3-1, WIN


ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
22/01/2020 10:22 pm  

P&L = +£74.13

Bank = £872.34

Burnley caused a massive upset, beating Man Utd at home 2-0 - the 1st time they’ve won at Old Trafford since 1962. That result scuppered a clean sweep but decent enough odds on the other bets to give a profit on the night.


ReplyQuote
AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 435
23/01/2020 6:44 am  

Was the bank £880.82? I can't seem to square the figures.


ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
23/01/2020 2:37 pm  

Hi Andrew,

Yes on 21/01/2020 it was £880.82.

Bank = £872.34

Stake = £87

A few cup matches tonight from Turkey, Greece and England

Bet 1

5.30pm Galatasaray v Rizespor - Galatasaray to win @ 1.54

Bet 2

5.00pm Lamia v PAOK - PAOK -1.0 AH @ 1.53

Bet 3

7.45pm Tranmere v Watford - Watford to win @ 1.93


ReplyQuote
AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 435
23/01/2020 6:15 pm  

on 21/01/2020 it was £880.82.

-£88 and was deducted from the bank

£880.82 - £88 = £792.82 What am I missing?

 


ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
24/01/2020 3:12 pm  

Results: Galatasaray won 2-1, PAOK won 1-0 (stakes refunded) but Watford could only draw v Tranmere 1-1.

P&L = -£42.37

Bank = £829.97

This post was modified 6 months ago by Eamon Roberts

ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
24/01/2020 3:22 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

on 21/01/2020 it was £880.82.

-£88 and was deducted from the bank

£880.82 - £88 = £792.82 What am I missing?

 

That’s correct Andrew. My calc on 22/1/20 was slightly wrong @ £798.22 and should have been £792.82.


ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
24/01/2020 3:42 pm  

Bank = £829.97
Stake = £83

7.45pm Brescia v AC Milan - AC to win @ 4/6


ReplyQuote
AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 435
24/01/2020 3:57 pm  

Thanks Eamon, I didn't spot the subsequent correction in the total. 

The A/E is settling down to around 1.08, an overall advantage of 8% so your selection process looks pretty sound. Staking 10% of bank is a bit rich for my blood given the odds range. You may find your bank fluctuating quite a bit and not getting much beyond 6 losers from square one.

Nevertheless, football is a difficult sport to make money from in my view so any profit/bank growth is commendable in my book.


ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
24/01/2020 6:39 pm  

Thanks Andrew,

I agree that it's quite a high percentage but the thought process was to try and grow the bank quickly, using low odds/high probability bets, then drop the percentage down once the bank reaches around £2.5k. Staking £250 on a bet feels quite a lot to me even if the selection process is sound (that old mindset adage).

If the £500 bank busts, I'd replenish it rather than playing conservatively from the start, and taking longer to get to a bigger betting bank.

If I reached £10k I reckon I would be at the 1.5-2% range and in bank preservation mode!!

 

This post was modified 6 months ago by Eamon Roberts

ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
24/01/2020 6:43 pm  

Another bet for this evening:

7.45pm Sunderland v Doncaster - Sunderland to win @ 4/5


ReplyQuote
AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 435
25/01/2020 1:02 am  

 it's quite a high percentage but the thought process was to try and grow the bank quickly

Unfortunately, that's not how it works Eamon. Increasing the percentage of bank staked does not grow the bank quicker. In fact, it can deplete it quicker depending on how the odds of the selections fall.

Take the extreme of betting 100% of your bank. Great when you win but you will lose everything when you lose. Betting 50% you would lose everything with two consecutive losers or a pattern like WLWLWLWWL with odd-on selections. Betting 25% you would wipe out at 4 consecutive losers or a pattern like WWWLWWLLWWWLL. And so on through all the various percentages.

Coming out on top is a case of balancing the percentage of bank staked with the win/lose pattern (which is related to odds and advantage) and win/lose amounts (also related to odds and advantage).

The quickest way to grow your bank in the long-run is to scale your bets to the odds (known) and your advantage at those odds (estimated). Estimate your edge (conservatively) and divide it by the odds (i.e. odds to one NOT decimal odds which include stake).

Example 1. Odds of 4/5 = 0.8. assume a 1% advantage at these odds. 0.01/0.8 = 0.0125 = 1.25% of bank staked

Example 2. Odds of 1/5 = 0.2. assume a 2% advantage at these odds. 0.02/0.2 = 0.10 = 10% of bank staked

I've attached your current odds/edge picture. Your advantage so far is almost entirely below 0.67 (4/6)

1579914142-OddsEdge.jpg

ReplyQuote
Eamon Roberts
(@eamon-roberts)
Reputable Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 496
25/01/2020 9:47 am  

Hi Andrew,

Thanks for the comments and analysis. It's something I will have a look at definitely consider.

P&L = -£27.66

Bank = £801.60

I'm on the train to Cheltenham today so have been doing more racing study than football.

Bet 1

12.45pm Brentford v Leicester - Leicester to win @ 1.74

Bet 2

3.00pm Newcastle v Oxford - Newcastle to win @ 1.54

Bet 3

8.00 Sevilla v Grenada - Sevilla to win @ 1.42

 

 


ReplyQuote
Page 9 / 16
Share:
Back to top button
Close
Close