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STAKING......Level Stakes vs 20/80  

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Stuart
(@stuvi)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 310
01/05/2020 12:02 pm  

Hi folks,

Haven't been on the forum for quite a while now, was just about to come back with a couple of new systems which were showing promise when Covid 19 struck and all UK and Irish racing was cancelled.

Having never really been a fan of overseas racing due to the scarcity of info I figured, ah well lifes a bitch, but then I remembered some freebie system someone sent me beginning of March which I had pigeonholed as not needed due my own systems going OK.

Dug it out, quick butchers, fairly simple EW system and can be used the world over.

Now most freebies i have received over the years, with the exception of Michaels, are a load of dross but off we went. The winners piled up, the places piled up even more so here are the results after 2   months, using mainly US racing with a sprinkling of other countries races that fitted the system  criteria.

Now this is NOT about the actual system performance but the difference using LS vs 20/80

WIN SR 25.1%, PLC SR 60.12, nearly all results between 5/1 an 10/1.

LS Profit was 262.48 pts or 4.52ppd. very tasty depending on how much per point you staked.

20/80 results were 314.82 on Win side and 1125.61 on PLC side totaling 1440.43 or an average of 24.82ppd.

All 3 results were from an initial 100pt bank. LS was 1pt win and 1pt place on every selection, the 20/80 staking was a straight 2% on the win side and 8% on the place side going up to 16% on reaching 200 pts and 24%( actually 25% ) on reaching 300 pts, that staying then at max of 25.

Cannot wait for the UK to resume racing.

Keep safe

 

Stuart


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
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01/05/2020 12:23 pm  

What was the A/E and over how many races Stuart? That would be a better measure.

 


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Stuart
(@stuvi)
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Posts: 310
01/05/2020 12:59 pm  

Hi Andrew,

251 selections in the 2 months. I take it A/E is actual over expected. How do you work A/E out

 

Stuart


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
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Posts: 429
01/05/2020 1:56 pm  

A/E = Actual winners divided by expected winners

To calculate expected winners, for each runner divide 1 by the decimal odds (including stake) of the runner (e.g. 2/1 = 1/3 = 3.33). Expected winners is the total for all runners.

If you just want to post up a spreadsheet with them in, I'd be happy t0 calculate.


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Stuart
(@stuvi)
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01/05/2020 2:56 pm  

OK Andrew get the method but if you divide 1 by 3 surely you get 0.33 not 3.33, or am I missing something.


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
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01/05/2020 3:25 pm  

@stuvi

Sorry Stuart, you're right, my mistake.


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Stuart
(@stuvi)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 310
01/05/2020 6:43 pm  

Ok so what is best low or high. Virtual all my selections go off round 5/1 so stake 1 would make it 1/6 so A/E would be 0.16 so higher the A/E would be a better bet?????


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 429
01/05/2020 8:13 pm  

1/decimal odds gives you the chance of the horse as a percentage. You do the calculation for each selection and add them all up. That tells you the number of winners the bookmaker expected going by his prices.

Divide the number of winners you actually got by the number the bookmaker expected to get the A/E


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
02/05/2020 11:54 am  

The way it works is that by adding up the probability of a horse winning (e.g. 1/3 = 0.33) for every selection you get the number of expected winners you should have received based on the odds.

When you divide your actual winners by expected winners, any number >1 indicates that you are beating the market because you are finding more winners than the odds would say you should and therefore you have an edge. Anything <1 indicates you aren't beating the market because you are finding less winners than the market would say you should.

It's important to note you can have an edge and be in a loss, indicating your profits will come long-term because you are beating the market. You can also be in a profit with an A/E less than 1, indicating that you are on a good run and should expect it to drop and move into a loss.

Long-term the A/E is a very good measure, e.g. usually 1.05 would indicate a 5% edge.

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