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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 52
21/04/2020 9:41 am  

Thought I'd mention Mike's recent blog post;

How to easily find a winning horse 98% of the time

https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/how-to-easilyfind-a-winning-horse-98-of-the-time/

For anyone who is struggling to find something to latch on to and explore, this approach is as good as any. The post itself seems to aim the reader towards dutching the Top 4 scores when the VDW Win/Place% is at a certain level. The post shows real races in the database and how it can be applied, to me, that's the acid test. However, for those that can't make their mind up about dutching, then it might be worth looking at something else.

Handicaps 20/80  (8 Runners+ Minimum)

  • A single digit score, clear by 1 or more
  • A VDW Place % of 90+

This quickly gives a single runner in the race to focus on.

  • Is it the favourite?

I found the better results are achieved if the qualifier is not the favourite. Just a personal preference.

The 20/80 is (Win 20% stake/Place 80% stake)

Other ratings to use as a reference.

This is subjective. I prefer not to give out my exact ones as they are work in progress and there may be better ones others already use. This will determine any edge you get in this game. What I will say is, a recent good run is where the sweet spots lie.

  • 217  GRL3       (Number of good races in last 3 runs)
  • 220  RSLG       (Number of races since last good races)
  • 3006 DSLGR    (Number of days since horse last had a good race)

There are some interesting ones on the standard racecard too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
21/04/2020 10:54 am  

Great thread, thank you. Will you be posting any selections?

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 52
21/04/2020 1:19 pm  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

Great thread, thank you. Will you be posting any selections?

Okay, Here's one to give some substance.

21April: Aldermist 2.20 - Handicap 8 Runners.

  1. VDW Place 95%
  2. VDW Score = 4 (clear by 2)
  3. Second Favourite 4.49
  4. Monte-Carlo Top 66.18% (Next 45.55%) (using my own card with 8 ratings)

Juneau

20/80 Stakes. (I'd be inclined to use the 4th extra place market if 1.30 available)

 

1587471564-Ald220.jpg

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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 52
21/04/2020 4:10 pm  
Posted by: @wearthefoxhat
Posted by: @mikeywilding

Great thread, thank you. Will you be posting any selections?

Okay, Here's one to give some substance.

21April: Aldermist 2.20 - Handicap 8 Runners.

  1. VDW Place 95%
  2. VDW Score = 4 (clear by 2)
  3. Second Favourite 4.49
  4. Monte-Carlo Top 66.18% (Next 45.55%) (using my own card with 8 ratings)

Juneau

20/80 Stakes. (I'd be inclined to use the 4th extra place market if 1.30 available)

 

1587471564-Ald220.jpg

 

1587481823-winner.jpg

ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
22/04/2020 10:39 am  

@wearthefoxhat thank you for the race sample and context 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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