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(@andrewp)
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09/12/2019 3:05 pm  

Love the thread (mainly because it's about two of my favourite topics, proportional staking and hedging).

Brian, I would suggest you keep columns breaking down the actual and expected winners into 'dutched bets' and 'breakeven bets'. That is, winners and  1/price for the dutched bets and winners and 1/price for the breakeven bets (as well as columns combining the two).

That way you can measure the A/E for each and how your edge is distributed. Also, you can calculate whether the approach is doing any better than straightforward backing to return 1 point.

What sort of total % are you covering per race?


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(@bfrew7)
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09/12/2019 5:21 pm  

I was hoping this would interest you Andrew, as the staking of it is the part that I feel I have the least grasp of at the moment.  The thinking behind my staking is to keep it as close to an even money bet as I can manage (i.e. that my staked money should, on average, be reasonably close to my "aim to win" amount (currently £21).  This depends on the odds, sometimes it is as small as £17, sometimes up to £28 or so.  Keeping the stakes as low as I can is the reasoning behind the break even bets (usually on the 3rd / 4th favourites).  My basic premise is that if I am betting at around 2 on a race where my "true odds" should be around 1.7, then I must have an advantage over time.  Does that reasoning make sense to you?  I am innocent of any understanding of creating spreadsheets I'm afraid, but if you could knock up one of your "quick and dirty" ones with the appropriate columns, I would be very happy to input and publish the data.

I am usually covering between 55% and 75% of the book.

The good news is that this has got off to a good start with 3 winners and 1 break even today.  

What is the expected "worst losing run" for a 70% strike rate by the way?  The worst I have had so far is 3, but I'm sure it will be many more than that!


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(@andrewp)
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09/12/2019 6:18 pm  

If you could paste up a table of dates, times, courses, horses and prices Brian, I'll put them in to an initial sheet and we can take it from there.

What is the expected "worst losing run" for a 70% strike rate by the way?

Something like this,

Losing Run100 Bets500 Bets1,000 Bets2,000 Bets
1100%100%100%100%
2100%100%100%100%
385%100%100%100%
443%94%100%100%
515%57%82%97%
65%30%40%64%
71.5%7%14%26%
8<1%2%4%9%
9<1%<1%1.35%3%

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(@tony-mochrie)
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09/12/2019 6:25 pm  

@andrewp

Strike Rate
Percentage
Max Likely Losing
Run Per 1000 bets
5%135
10%66
15%43
20%31
25%24
30%19
35%16
40%14
45%12
50%10
55%9
60%8
65%7
70%6
75%5
80%4
85%4
90%3
95%2

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(@alex-bradley)
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09/12/2019 8:47 pm  

Loving this thread 😍 


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(@bfrew7)
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09/12/2019 11:32 pm  

Great Andrew.  Todays information is here... https://www.dropbox.com/s/cin6bwzp2f3ubt9/BF%20Monday%20Dutching%20results.xlsx?dl=0


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(@bfrew7)
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10/12/2019 12:53 pm  

Not a lot appeals today, so far. 

I'm going top 5 in the market on the 1.50 at Tramore with Ask Heather (big positive on the software) and Romella the main two and breaking even on Moyode Lady, Rebel Early and Stucker Hill.  This covers 63.3% of the book for a stake of £19.90 to win £22 if either of the first two oblige.  

Currently looking at the 3.00 at Fontwell and will post once I've come to a conclusion on it.


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(@bfrew7)
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10/12/2019 2:12 pm  

Race won by Rachel Blackmore on 14/1 shot Une Lavandiere, which led from start to finish, despite having no previous form of any note.  All five selections nowhere.  So it goes.  

I'm leaving out the 3.00 at Fontwell as nothing has any recent good runs to it's name.

I'm going to look further at the 6.15 and 6.45 at Wolverhampton as time gets closer.


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(@bfrew7)
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10/12/2019 6:36 pm  

Passed on the 6.15, which was justified by the result.  

Going for a two way dutch on the top two in the market in the 6.45; Grey Mist and Noble Behest.  Both have strong positives on the software and following "due diligence".  51% of book and stake is £22.22 to a £22 win.  I would have liked a break even saver on the third in the market, In Demand, but it would have taken the stake over £30 which seemed too high to me.


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(@johnnynoodles1)
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10/12/2019 6:40 pm  

Yep glad you passed on the 6.15 let's hope the top 2 turn up in the 6.45


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(@johnnynoodles1)
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10/12/2019 6:54 pm  

Nice one,Battle of Marathon went close but went too far wide on the track,thankfully Noble Behest kept on to the line.


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(@bfrew7)
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10/12/2019 7:08 pm  

Exactly so John.  Given a better ride, Battle of Marathon would have won I think, but I'll take it.  🙂

The link to my results today for Andrew is here... https://www.dropbox.com/s/f4n83hg891iqpr3/BF%20Tuesday%20Dutching%20results.xlsx?dl=0


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(@bfrew7)
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11/12/2019 12:04 pm  

Out this afternoon, but I've placed a couple of orders in the market for...

Hexham 1.50: Casimir Du Clos and Kitty Fisher.  52% of book.  Stake £24.56.

Lingfield 3:10: Gottardo / The Groove / Huddle.  49% of book.  Stake £20.95.

 


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(@johnnynoodles1)
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11/12/2019 3:21 pm  

All horses peformed badly today Brian,biggest letdown was Casimir Du Clos went 6/5 in the market and finished last due to really poor jumping...Oh well,hopefully next lot will perform better.


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(@bfrew7)
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11/12/2019 7:13 pm  

Yes, it was a really poor day.  I've learned my lesson on betting and then going off to do something else (playing Bridge in this case).  In future I'm only going to put bets on when I'm there to see the race.  I would have matched out Casimir Du Clos after Kitty Fisher's withdrawal had I been there (since it was no longer a Dutch).  C'est la vie.

Link to today's bets:  

https://www.dropbox.com/s/khglhv81ihv8dye/BetHistory%20%283%29.xls?dl=0


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