I am going to keep following it (especially as it is such a simple system - Top rated in 3 stats and odds 3-1 or lower) but I've started digging now and so will find it difficult to stop - even if I only pull out All Weather vs Turf or Flat vs National Hunt - just a thought exercise for the moment.
I suppose it was inevitable but I would have had a return on a horse priced over 3-1. I would have had Flanagans Field for a 6-1 Place - but not going to change anything on this again until the end of June.
February saw a loss of -2.81 Points on those 3-1 & Under and a profit of +1.60 on those over 3-1 (which I'm Paper Trading).
This was helped in no small part by Dark Phoenix winning on 28/02 at Lingfield for which I had 10/3 - I'll post the monthly returns to Dropbox when I catch up on my admin (probably after Cheltenham)
@johnwaters1965 thank you again for the monthly update. It was inevitable that would happen at some point, and it's likely it will happen again. Holding off until the end of June to make any changes is exactly the right thing to be doing though 🙂
Michael - it's a system that works out at less than a bet a day so I need to get 3-4 months worth of figures to be anywhere near statistically significant
Well I was going to leave any changes until the end of June but I have needed to do something to while away the time so, amongst some other tasks, I sat down to look at the results from my Trble Top system.
I added a number of criteria to my Spreadsheet to help with this analysis: Race Type (Flat, AW, Hurdle, Chase & NHF), Handicap, Going, Class, Distance, Age (for Race), Number of Runners and Position in the Market. Here is the current Spreadsheet https://www.dropbox.com/s/xo5ymtbb3o3hq63/TT%20Records%20-%20End%20of%20Test%20-%20Step%204.ods?dl=0
I will admit to being daunted at first until I got to Position in the Market where the results for those with Odds of 3-1 and under were:
|Position in Market||Bets||Wins||SR||ROI||P/L||A/E||Chi2|
There were no horses ranked lower than 4th in the market with odds of 3-1 and under but there some with odds over 3-1.
For Comparison purposes I looked at the Top 3 Favourites also and had these figures:
Bets: 156 Wins 79 Strike Rate: 50.64 ROI 12.50 P/L 19.52 A/E 1.08 Chi2 0.34
Now I know there are not enough results for this to be statistically significant but I think, when racing restarts, I'll run with another filter of Top 3 in Market - I'll keep track of others by Paper Trading so fingers crossed.
@johnwaters1965 this looks very promising. You can continue to test this on Aldermist, our virtual race course, it works exactly like live racing, and with a race every ten minutes you will be able to get statistically significant results much faster. Inside you will see every horse are horses, jockeys and trainers you know, all the data and form history is accurate, and you can move from these races into live betting seamlessly 😉
I forgot to mention, at the end of next week we will also be releasing simulated betting and challenges into Aldermist, and the week after I will be holding webinars to go through how it works, and answer any questions 🙂