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(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
06/01/2019 1:04 pm  

Hi

I will be posting my selections from a system I have devised and been using for a few weeks and is showing promise, I use the VDW stats from race advisor data banks, I then look at some trainer info for the track and also cross reference with the Stat Pack also provided by the race advisor.

Betting is to level stakes and is a mixture of win and E/W bets with the odd dutch if I cant split a couple.

There are bets pretty much everyday, ranging from as few as 4 to  as many as 15 +

My view on your bankroll is that you must have enough to survive a 20 bet loss plus the ability to place a further 40 so 80 to 100 point bank.

Cheers

Will


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(@positronic)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
06/01/2019 1:12 pm  

Selections for 6th Jan

Plum - 2.10 - Shimba hills E/W  PU

    2.40 - The Two Amigos W  1st @ 2.87

    2.40 - The Tin Miner E/W  6th

    3.10 - King Vince E/W  4th

Naas - 1.50 - Tornado Flyer W  PU

    2.20 - Drumconner Lad E/W  6th

    2.50 - Aoibhes Beau E/W  17th

    3.20 - Missy Tata W  NR

Newc - 2.00 - Isle of Avalon W  7th

    2.30 - Elysees Palace W  1st @ 2.1

    3.00 - One Vision W  1st @ 3.25

    3.30 - Supreme Power E/W  4th

So not the best start, 11 point spend with a return of 8.22 so -2.78 points on the day.

Some disappointing runs from horses who have previously shown form under those race conditions.


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(@positronic)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
07/01/2019 1:13 pm  

Selections for 7th Jan

A little late as the VDW section isn't working today.

Chep - 1.05 - Love Lane W

Muss - 1.25 - Nefyn Point W

    1.55 - Henrys Joy W

    3.00 - Rainy City W

Wolv - 4.45 - Followthesteps  W

    5.45 - Given Choice  W

    7.45 - Zafaranah  W


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2400
07/01/2019 4:16 pm  

Great to have you joining in the 30 Day Challenge. Pleased to see you got the VDW ratings, they were a bit late today but hope to be back to normal tomorrow.

What strike rate do you expect?

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(@positronic)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
08/01/2019 9:37 am  

Results for 7th Jan

Chep – 1.05 – Love Lane W  1st 5.00
Muss – 1.25 – Nefyn Point W  3rd
1.55 – Henrys Joy W  1st 3.25
3.00 – Rainy City W  2nd
Wolv – 4.45 – Followthesteps W  2nd
5.45 – Given Choice W  1st 2.00
7.45 – Zafaranah W  1st 3.75

That's more like it, much better runs. There were 2 more selections, ontopoftheworld but was a silly odds on price and I don't bet on odds on prices, then their was Hermocrates in the 7.45 at Wolv but didn't quite make the grade and of course it won.

So 7 points placed with a return of 14 which puts us 4.22 points in profit overall.


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(@positronic)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
08/01/2019 9:41 am  

Michael Wilding said
Great to have you joining in the 30 Day Challenge. Pleased to see you got the VDW ratings, they were a bit late today but hope to be back to normal tomorrow.

What strike rate do you expect?  

Hi Michael

Looking for an average of 30-40% strike rate, nearer the 40% is the target and more days like yesterday help 🙂


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(@positronic)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
08/01/2019 12:48 pm  

Selections for 8th Jan

Ayr

2.35 - Divine Port W

3.10 - Spirit Of Kayf E/W3

Bangor

1.10 - Urbanist W

1.40 - Rhaegar W

2.50 - Gardiners Hill W

Newcastle

3.40 - Loud and Clear W

4.10 - Servo E/W4

4.10 - Silverturnstogold E/W4

4.45 - Mardle W

5.15 - Outrage W

5.15 - Foolaad E/W

5.45 - Sparkle In His Eye W

6.45 - White Iversion E/W3

 

And for a glory shot:-

Urbanist - Rhaegar - Gardiners Hill - Loud And Clear - Mardle E/W 5 fold just over 300/1

Forgot to mention I use E/W extra on some of the bets which I will note the number of the e/w taken next to it.

Cheers


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(@positronic)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
08/01/2019 8:33 pm  

Results for 8th Jan

Ayr
2.35 – Divine Port W    3rd
3.10 – Spirit Of Kayf E/W3     4th ( Jockey intervention again, he held the horse up till about 2 out then went off like a rocket, could have easily won this race )

Bangor
1.10 – Urbanist W    3rd ( read my post reference the importance of jockeys ref this performance )
1.40 – Rhaegar W    PU
2.50 – Gardiners Hill W    5th

Newcastle
3.40 – Loud and Clear W    1st - 3.00
4.10 – Servo E/W4    1st - 19.00 ( History was good except the going a bit of a grey area from winning point off view, oh me of little faith 🙂
4.10 – Silverturnstogold E/W4    7th
4.45 – Mardle W    2nd ( Zip was pretty equal for stats, so should have forecast )
5.15 – Outrage W    1st - 6.50
5.15 – Foolaad E/W    2nd - 8.50 1/5 ( was only 3/4 behind so correct choice to go Dutch )
5.45 – Sparkle In His Eye W    2nd
6.45 – White Iversion E/W3    4th

Bit disappointed with myself as 1 at Ayr and 2 at Bangor were borderline at best selections so wasted 3 points.

On the up side Well done Servo and Lynn Siddall, I got in early at 19`s and I even gave up a point to get the E/W extra.

So 13 point spend with a return of 30 which puts us 21.22 points in profit overall.

Cheers

Will


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(@john-ritchie)
Trusted Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 62
08/01/2019 8:55 pm  

Hi Will nice returns 

all the best John


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(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
08/01/2019 9:00 pm  

John Ritchie said
Hi Will nice returns 

all the best John  

Hi John

Thanks, hopefully it will continue 🙂


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(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
09/01/2019 12:33 pm  

Selections for 9th Jan

Lingfield

1.55 - Uncle Jerry W

3.05 - Very Honest W

3.40 - Global Wonder W

Doncaster

1.35 - Uno Mas W

2.45 - Lunar Jet W

3.15 - Fifty Shades W ( Because the wife said I had to 😉 )

3.50 - Bang Bang Rosie W

Taunton

2.20 - Marble Moon W

Kempton

4.45 - Enchanting Man W

5.15 - Classic Star W

6.15 - Corinthia Knight W

6.45 - Nananita W

6.45 - Clevedon E/W4

7.15 - Viola Park W

7.15 - Hic Bibi E/W

7.15 - Chetan E/W

And the glory shot for today, E/W 5 fold about 1550/1

Uno Mas

Fifty Shades

Global Wonder

Nananita

Viola Park

Cheers

Will


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(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
09/01/2019 9:40 pm  

Results for 9th Jan

Lingfield
1.55 – Uncle Jerry W    3rd
3.05 – Very Honest W    2nd
3.40 – Global Wonder W    2nd

Doncaster
1.35 – Uno Mas W    2nd
2.45 – Lunar Jet W    2nd
3.15 – Fifty Shades W ( Because the wife said I had to )    4th
3.50 – Bang Bang Rosie W    3rd

Taunton
2.20 – Marble Moon W    4th

Kempton
4.45 – Enchanting Man W    2nd
5.15 – Classic Star W    7th
6.15 – Corinthia Knight W    5th
6.45 – Nananita W    3rd
6.45 – Clevedon E/W4    10th
7.15 – Viola Park W    4th
7.15 – Hic Bibi E/W    3rd 20.00 - 1/4
7.15 – Chetan E/W    11th

Well what can I say, other than that's why you need a betting bank.

So close to a great day but instead a single place win lol.

So 17 point spend with a return of 3.5 points which puts us in 7.72 profit so far

Cheers
Will


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(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
10/01/2019 10:47 am  

Selections for 10th Jan

Another busy day with a 17 point spend.

Clonmel

2.35 - Danse Away W

3.10 - Barna Ventura W

Leicester

1.10 - Oscar Hoof W

2.20 - Master Mark W

2.55 - Brecon Hill W

Southwell

12.45 - Azari W

1.20 - Acclaim The Nation W

2.25 - Black Salt W

3.35 - Piazon W

Chelmsford

5.15 - Kinver Edge W

5.15 - Themaxwecan E/W

5.50 - Claire Underwood W

7.25 - Your Band W

Todays glory shot with odds of 113/1 E/W 5 Fold

Master Work

Black Salt

Danse Away

Barna Venture

Your Band

 

Cheers

Will


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2400
10/01/2019 3:16 pm  

That's exactly why you need a bankroll! 

For your own records do you record distance to winner? When you get a lot of places it can help to identify where you were close and it was something in-running that's almost unpredictable or whether they were a long way off and you missed something either in the selection or the winning horse.

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
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(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1585
10/01/2019 10:36 pm  

No I don't record any finishing distances, I do look at them If I don't see the race and roll my eyes lol.

The reason I don't make post race notes on distances is that the selection may not become a selection again for months and my selection process doesn't involve distance but some of the process taken into consideration is how many times the horse has won or placed under very similar race conditions i.e. distance, going, class, course, field size.

 When I first started putting the system together I did keep lots of notes, which helped me narrow down race types etc.


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