Difficult one.  

   RSS

0

This is going to be extremely hard. A weight rating that compares a horses best 3 recent runs over similar conditions to include distances won or lost by carrying a weight plus or minus X pounds against similar class opposition. PHEW!!! Probably better for National hunt . 

@paul-robinson-2

Interesting idea. Sounds a bit like a weight rated speed rating? Is that what you were thinking or something a bit different?

2 Answers
0

In a way, but I was thinking more of a comparison between distances won or placed over similar conditions and against  horses of similar ability even over specific tracks. (Yeah. I know. I'm stretching it now).

@paul-robinson-2

It's always possible to work something out 😀

We've got:

A weight rating based on distances the horse was competitive at (+- a certain amount)

That removes win or place and puts the having a good race instead.

Compared against horses of a similar ability.

The tracks part shouldn't be a problem.

Did you have an idea of how you'd measure a similar ability? If not, how do you currently assess a similar ability manually.

I tend to measure ability in races by using prize money averages. I find it more reliable than race class - especially in Irish racing but the difficult part is weighting towards recent races and also can only really be used where horses have had four or more races.

@paul-robinson-2

That makes sense, I prefer to use money class instead of class number. 

What is the reason for wanting the figures in weight?

0

I watch many races where front running or prominent horses go great guns and look winners all the way and then at a certain point of the race they empty very quickly and are quickly swamped. It happens often with favourites and horses prominent in the market too. I can often pinpoint these horses by a lot of looking back at runs over distances and on different going and in certain field sizes and, not least with jumpers, course direction. I also notice that there is a correlation when a handicapper sometimes gets it wrong and ups a horse too much or drops one too much but it is a laborious task trying to make a correlation between pounds and distance lengths that may or may not stop or help the horse. Of course it's a difficult approach but it pays dividends especially in the lay markets but it is very very time consuming just to go through one race and a predictive algorithm would be a first anywhere. Unfortunately, I am good at maths but not a statistical maths genius so it doesn't exist yet.

@paul-robinson-2

Really interesting. Considering that, would it be useful to have an indicator of whether the weight is likely to be problematic on a horse based on going and distance? I don’t include course because there may not be enough data to include that as well, numbers aren’t good when there isn’t enough data, whereas a human brain can fill in the blanks?

Have you used our speed graphs? I think this may also hugely speed up this process immediately, and you can apply the filter for specific race conditions. Let me know if you’d like me to show you what I’m thinking.

The answer is yes  have use your speed graphs. I like them a lot but find them something of a blunt instrument ( Pleas don't be insulted. They are very good ). Yes I would like your thoughts thank you.

 

@paul-robinson-2

Maybe we can sharpen them in a way that would be useful for you 😊 if you have any suggestions I’m always happy to put them on our development list.

I think some sort of weight affect display may be something you’re looking for, so you can see whether it’s likely to impact the horse over the race conditions?

Share:
Back to top button
Close
Close

Please Login or Register