[Solved] new ratings
Is there any opportunity for a couple of new ratings that would influence the choices we make?
I think that it is important to see whether a horse has been recently gelded, especially after a BF and on the first or second run back.
It is also quite important to show new added headgear, or returning on from a win, which could be mixed with the return of the last winning jockey and conditions.
Also, the wear of eye shields is something that can and usually will work wonders, but just for a run or two... It could also improve the focus of a horse after they are removed.
I think it'd be a matter for a debate or a conversation here.
I believe an intermediate score with the selected rankings and factors combined would range your entire card in a Monte Cristo style of ranking, showing you the strongest contenders, up to 4 (more and you move on). Since the gelding first or second time out, especially for some yards, and the wind operation within 3 runs is a massive boost to the form, I'd add them to the score with a high ratio. Same procedure with any performance enhancing gear or anything put (back) together to recreate of the last successful race conditions.
Then you can have a final section showing you the card probability or odds against the live market and finally a result for each horse showing the edge on the market.
Like a Monte Cristo simulator, the user would alter the ratios but in this case could only change some horses ratios according to each particular case and conditions.
I see it as an extra added section to your cards, because it would process the results of any chosen cards with the added elements.
For example, Mark Johnston is super hot these past few weeks and he has a few 3 yrs old horses entered to return on the trainers favourite course and they don't stand out on the cards. They have not performed that well as 2 yrs old and went for a winter break with a poor form. But then you have data showing that they have since been gelded, some have had wind surgery and a break to fill up their frame and some champion a headgear for the first time. they will be ridden by F.Norton the new hot combination with that trainer. This info should change your calculations, and the results not only help you choose your pick and bet type, but also determine whether there is an edge for you, because these are not always taken into account in the live market.
Yes, both your ideas and suggestions are spot on.
I am impressed with how your translate what lies in my brains, Michael!
I would make sure that I rate the type of gear accordingly, as they will have their specific effect on each individual horse. Saying that they each have a specific attitude issue to work on. It is mainly focus. Wind ops are done at different level but there is no need to look into other than wind op as a generic form changing attribute. I would also make sure that headgears come into account only in 2 major cases: first time on or returning from a success. And like you said Michael, the combination with any little factors mentioned could have a dramatic effect. I don't believe horses that win out of nowhere have just got lucky. To get back to monsieur Nicholas, the sectional speed could sit right between that and the speed ratings Michael already offers. This type of analysis is the missing link that will demonstrate that it is not always the fastest horse in the race that will win, but the one to reach the post first, in other words, the quickest to finish.