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Is there any opportunity for a couple of new ratings that would influence the choices we make?

I think that it is important to see whether a horse has been recently gelded, especially after a BF and on the first or second run back.

It is also quite important to show new added headgear, or returning on from a win, which could be mixed with the return of the last winning jockey and conditions.

Also, the wear of eye shields is something that can and usually will work wonders, but just for a run or two... It could also improve the focus of a horse after they are removed.

 

@madfroggy do you think it would be better to have this as a factor available, or more of a setting that then highlights the horse? We could also have a settings page where you can define timeframes or conditions?

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I have added all those three items to our development lists 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.

@mikeywilding Thank you ! 🙂 

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I think it'd be a matter for a debate or a conversation here.

I believe an intermediate score with the selected rankings and factors combined would range your entire card in a Monte Cristo style of ranking, showing you the strongest contenders, up to 4 (more and you move on). Since the gelding first or second time out, especially for some yards, and the wind operation within 3 runs is a massive boost to the form, I'd add them to the score with a high ratio. Same procedure with any performance enhancing gear or anything put (back) together to recreate of the last successful race conditions.

Then you can have a final section showing you the card probability or odds against the live market and finally a result for each horse showing the edge on the market.

Like a Monte Cristo simulator, the user would alter the ratios but in this case could only change some horses ratios according to each particular case and conditions.

I see it as an extra added section to your cards, because it would process the results of any chosen cards with the added elements.

For example, Mark Johnston is super hot these past few weeks and he has a few 3 yrs old horses entered to return on the trainers favourite course and they don't stand out on the cards. They have not performed that well as 2 yrs old and went for a winter break with a poor form. But then you have data showing  that they have since been gelded, some have had wind surgery and a break to fill up their frame and some champion a headgear for the first time. they will be ridden by F.Norton the new hot combination with that trainer. This info should change your calculations, and the results not only help you choose your pick and bet type, but also determine whether there is  an edge for you, because these are not always taken into account in the live market.

@madfroggy some really interesting ideas. I think this is more than one item, as I understand it, you are suggesting:

1) We highlight horses that have had wind ops and recently gelded within X runs. X could be a setting. If possible showing a figure which represented the possible advantage this may have provided

2) Highlight horses that are wearing headgear which has historically improved their performance. If possible showing a figure which represented the possible advantage this may have provided

3) Show trainer and jockey patterns, or highlight trainers and jockeys that are in the start/middle/end of a hot pattern.

@madfroggy

Agree Wind Ops would be interesting as it's been said (unproven) that a horse can improve from the 2nd run onwards, in the short term.

Also, a few years back, when wearing a hood for the first time, suddenly every handicapper was winning races showing "improvement" with a hood on. (until everyone started to to the same)

One area, that's very new is sectional timing. ie: sectional speed (mph) Not too sure how useful it might be until it becomes normal for every race, every day.  The existing speed figures may already be best to use already.

@madfroggy sectionals are very interesting, and the basis for a lot of analysis in the US and other countries. At the moment they're not very consistent in the UK, and they're not available in every race, which makes it hard to use them consistently. However, they will definitely be useful when they are more consistent. When they are we will look at integrating them.

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Yes, both your ideas and suggestions are spot on.

I am impressed with how your translate what lies in my brains, Michael!

I would make sure that I rate the type of gear accordingly, as they will have their specific effect on each individual horse. Saying that they each have a specific attitude issue to work on. It is mainly focus. Wind ops are done at different level but there is no need to look into other than wind op as a generic form changing attribute. I would also make sure that headgears come into account only in 2 major cases: first time on or returning from a success. And like you said Michael, the combination with any little factors mentioned could have a dramatic effect. I don't believe horses that win out of nowhere have just got lucky. To get back to monsieur Nicholas, the sectional speed could sit right between that and the speed ratings Michael already offers. This type of analysis is the missing link that will demonstrate that it is not always the fastest horse in the race that will win, but the one to reach the post first, in other words, the quickest to finish.

 

@madfroggy  it is not always the fastest horse in the race that will win, but the one to reach the post first, in other words, the quickest to finish.

Absolutely!

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