Eyecatchers Weekend Preview
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes – Ascot
The King George VI hasn’t really caught the imagination of racing fans, well it hasn’t mine anyway but it’s the start of a tremendous weeks racing and betting with the Goodwood and Galway Festivals to enjoy
The ante post favourite Highland Reel and Jack Hobbs will be trend’s busters if they are to win this year’s renewal as no 5-year-old or older horse has won the race since Daylami in 1999, mind you only 9 have had a go in the past 9 years with 4 placing.
If Jack Hobbs runs then he would be my suggestion of the likely winner, despite being a five year old. He is very lightly raced this will only be his 12th career start. He won the 2015 Irish Derby after finishing 2nd behind Golden Horn in the Epsom Derby. Clearly he hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound but as he showed when winning the 1m 4f Sheema Classic at Meydan in March he is still capable of winning a Group 1 when he gets his conditions, These conditions from me, are a distance of 1m 4f (form figures at 1m 4f are 211P1) and some juice in the ground as he got at Meydan. On the other occasion when he faced good to soft ground he finished a close-up 3rd to Fascinating Rock in the 2015 Group 1 Champion Stakes over 1m 2f. Corals are a standout 8/1 at the time of writing on his chance which looks solid each way value.
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes – Jack Hobbs (on going good or softer)
Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Ascot – Saturday 29th June
Last week I looked at some of the trends for the Newbury Super Sprint and they highlighted the 12/1 winner Bengali Boys, trained by Richard Fahey who was having his 3rd winner in the race. Let’s hope for more of the same as I look at Saturday’s big handicap the International Stakes at Ascot.
In the last 9 years, there have been 9 winners from 220 runners 36 placed. For those interested in the likely profile of the winner here are a few trends that you can use to short list contenders for the race:
Age: 4 or 5 year-olds – 9 winners from 124 runners +75 26 placed (0 wins from 96 runners 10 placed outside these ages)
Career Runs: 5 to 30 – 9 winners from 152 runners +47 31 placed (0 wins from 68 runners 5 placed outside this runs band)
Official Rating Compared to Last Race: Same or up to 3lb higher – 9 winners from 168 runners +31 35 placed (0 wins from 52 runners 1 placed outside this band)
Weight: Top Weight or within 15lb of top weight – 9 winners from 152 runners +47 26 placed (0 wins from 68 runners 10 placed below 15lbs)
All 9 winners had run within last 45 days and don’t be afraid of runners going off at a really big price:
Odds SP: 14/1 to 40/1 – 7 winners from 126 runners +60 22 placed + 91.75 (profit to Betfair SP +130.19)
Notable Trainer Records:
Mark Johnston – 3 winners from 18 runners 3 placed
Richard Fahey – 2 winners from 17 runners 3 placed
John Gosden – 1 winner from 2 runners 1 placed
Michael Bell – 0 wins from 3 runners 2 placed
David Simcock – 0 wins from 5 runners 2 placed
N.B. Interestingly Mark Johnston is 3 winners from 3 runners with horses that met all the above four trends and were sent off at odds between 18/1 & 40/1.