This is a guest article by Eddie Lloyd.
There are many ways of finding winners and if we’re really clever there are many more ways of which we can make a profit. In this article I thought I’d take a look at one of the ways in which we can use the Racing Post to find a few profitable statistics.
One of the best ways to start this approach is to look at the Statistics tab on the Cards page of the Racing Post, which you will see I have highlighted below.
As you can see highlighted in the yellow is the word Statistics. This is where we need to click in order to open the page below:
Now on this page you will see that there are all the percentages of how well a jockey, and further down the page, a trainer has fared at the track. The far right column is how much money you would have won or lost to a £1 stake had you backed every runner the trainer or jockey had ridden over the last 5 years. If we click on one of the jockey names, we open another tab of which we can see how well they’ve done over various variables.
The one we are going to concentrate on here is the relationship between trainer and jockey.
When looking at stats it is important to understand that we need to know that there is logic between the stats we are pairing. In this case, the trainer has placed the horse in a race they believe the horse has a chance of winning. They then select the jockey they think has the best chance of winning the race. The jockey will be given their instructions on how to ride the horse, and if this plan is executed to the letter then we have our best chance of being on the winning horse.
This may all seem fairly obvious, but there is a sound logic between this pairing and if we are prepared to do a little research we can find a profitable angle.
From the page above we can see that when riding at Newbury, Richard Hughes has a very good strike rate of 18%.
We don’t need to focus too much on the profit/loss figure to the far right because we won’t be backing every single horse he rides.
What we need to do, is find an angle with which Richard Hughes rides well.
Click on his name and you will see a page similar to the one below.
I have highlighted in yellow the noticeable stat that when Richard Hughes rides for Hughie Morrison, they have an impressive 23% strike rate and have achieved a level stakes profit of £24.23 to £1 stakes.
Now we want to click on Hughie Morrison and bring up a page like the one below.
As you can see Hughie Morrison has just the one runner today with Quiz Mistress in the 1.50 @ Newbury.
We want to check that Richard Hughes is riding Quiz Mistress to do this we click on the date to the left of the name of the horse.
This brings us to the following page…
Richard Hughes is riding Quiz Mistress, as you can see above, so this horse has now become an interesting qualifier based on the profitable relationship between the trainer and jockey.
I suggest that you then go on to do some further investigation of the form. This shows us why this runner has been priced at 16/1.
Its last best race was in a race over in France and the form can be difficult to transfer to Britain. However, on analysing this race it opened up at 33/1 and was then steadily backed all day into 16’s.
This would suggest that either the stat we have uncovered is becoming public knowledge, or someone out there knows something we don’t.
It’s always worth noting market moves like this when we have a bigger priced qualifier. On many occasions I have unearthed a profitable stat like this and watched as the odds have tumbled leading up to the race.
The race above was superb and Quiz Mistress came a very close second, as you’ll see below. At 16/1 this would have been a fantastic e/w bet and we would have made a profit of £2.20 to a £1 e/w bet.
Have a go at looking for profitable angles such as this one yourself. When you’ve found one then paper trade it until you are comfortable with it.
Once you’ve found that you are making a profit from these stats then you could add them to your portfolio and you will soon see that you can find many a winner that no-one would have thought of backing from just the form!
Ed has been a professional punter for over 3 years now and has built his knowledge of horse racing stats up to be the cutting edge of his portfolio. Combining these stats into systems, Ed has a broad range of angles that he uses to turn a profit from the sport. Using these stats he is able to find value bets that the general public would never think of backing themselves.