Strategies

Finding Winners From The Daily Stat Pack

Every day on the Race Advisor we publish the Daily Stat Pack here. In it you will find all the jockeys and trainers that have achieved a strike rate of 17% or higher on the course that they’re racing at today.

This in itself is a very useful report to have every day for a shortlist of jockeys and trainers that are racing on courses they like.

But…

It gets even better because at the bottom are tables that contain the strongest horses based on these stats.

They look like…

Screen Shot 2015-01-11 at 22.50.35

Some days there is just one or two runners that meet the criteria, other days there can be more.

Inside these boxes you can see the horse name, jockey and trainer names and the horses strike rate on the going, distance and course that it will be racing on today.

But, most importantly, you know that these are strong horses. Which means you can use them as a shortlisting process for your form reading.

The question is, how do we go from this shortlist to our final selections?

Well, as you’d expect, there’s a bunch of ways that you could do this. And today we’re going to look at one of the most effective methods that can be done very quickly.

Our process is going to include you asking two major questions:

How strong is our horse in each of the major factors?
How strong are the rivals to our horse?

The major factors that we are looking for are:

  • Form
  • Speed
  • Fitness
  • Connections

We score each of these very quickly by using the Racing Post. If you open a race you will see a race card similar to:

Screen Shot 2015-01-11 at 22.52.18

For Form we look at the RPR rating and score our horse 3 points if it is the top-rated, 2 points if it is the second top rated and 1 point if it is the third top rated.

In the example above Josses Hill has the highest RPR rating and so gets a score of 3.

  • Form – 3
  • Speed
  • Fitness
  • Connections

Next we look at Speed and we use the TS rating and the same points scoring as for the RPR rating. Josses Hill is second top rated and gets a score of 2.

  • Form – 3
  • Speed – 2
  • Fitness
  • Connections

To determine the Fitness of a horse we click on it’s name to open it’s history and you will see something similar to:

Screen Shot 2015-01-11 at 22.53.52

If the horse has had a good race within the last four weeks then it gets a score of 3, if it has had a good race in the last eight weeks it gets a score of 2, if it has had a good race in the last twelve weeks it gets a score of 1.

A good race is one where the horse finished in the top three finishing positions or came within two lengths of the winner.

Josses Hill had a good race on the 19th December, less than four weeks ago, and gets a score of 3.

  • Form – 3
  • Speed – 2
  • Fitness – 3
  • Connections

Finally for connections we use the RTF%, this is shown next to the Trainers name.

Screen Shot 2015-01-11 at 22.54.52

You can see Paul Nicholls has 64%, Philip Hobbs has 43% etc…

Our scoring for the Connections is any trainer that has 90% or higher gets 3 points, 75%-90% gets 2 points and 50%-75% gets 1 point.

Josses Hill trainer has only got 48% and so gets no points for this race.

The final scores for Josses Hill looks like:

  • Form – 3
  • Speed – 2
  • Fitness – 3
  • Connections – 0

That’s a total of 8 points.

However, because this runner has come from one of our Daily Stat Pack shortlists they get an extra point for Form and Connections…

  • Form – 4
  • Speed – 2
  • Fitness – 3
  • Connections – 1

The final total for this runner is 10.

Next we need to consider how strong the rivals to our selection are, and we do this by following the same process on any runners that have odds of less than 19/1.

In this race that was Solar Impulse and Cheltenian.

Solar Impulse is second top-rated for RPR and gets 2 points for Form. He’s the top-rated for TS and gets 3 points for Speed.

Looking at his form:

Screen Shot 2015-01-11 at 22.56.48

His last good race was on the 29th November, which was between four and eight weeks ago, giving him 2 points for Fitness.

Finally we look at his trainers RTF%. His trainer is Paul Nichols and currently has an RTF% of 64% and so he gets 1 point for Connections.

His totals are…

  • Form – 2
  • Speed – 3
  • Fitness – 2
  • Connections – 1

That’s a total score for Solar Impulse of 8.

Moving on to Cheltenian we can see that he has no rating for RPR and TS which means 0 points for Form and Speed.

His form is:

Screen Shot 2015-01-11 at 22.58.06

His last race was in April 2014, the race we are looking at is in January 2015. He hasn’t run, let alone had a good race, for nearly 9 months and so he gets a 0 for Fitness.

Finally his trainer, Philip Hobbs, has an RTF% of 43 which means he also receives 0 for Fitness.

His total scores look like:

  • Form – 0
  • Speed – 0
  • Fitness – 0
  • Connections – 0

A total score of 0.

That means that the scores for our selection and his rivals are:

Josses Hill – 10
Solar Impulse – 8
Cheltenian – 0

Ideally we want our selection to be the top scoring runner in the field to give us the confidence to bet. However, you should always be taking the odds into consideration. If the horse has low odds then you may want them to be higher scoring than the next best horse by more than if they had larger odds.

You should use this approach as a starting point to using the contenders provided by the Daily Stat Pack and develop it further to suit your own betting style.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

21 Comments

  1. Those blokes you were talking to may well be right as this is all quality stuff and I have learnt some things I didn’t know from it, so a BIG thanks for that, but more so, there is a real chance that many more will be relieving the bookies of a bob or two by sorting through the runners, rather than having a wild stab at a fancy name.

  2. Excellent stuff as usual MichaeL. Well appreciated you’ve made this useful approach available without charge. YOUR COMMON DECENCY DEMANDS RESPECT FROM US ALL!!!

  3. There was a Tipster who used the same formula as to getting contenders,

    but he used Wins to runs, Ability Rating and Conditions.

    He used a 20% for trainers and Jockeys.

    Just an other way of doing this, but I think your way would get more winners.

    Barry

  4. Nice bit of extra meat on bones,I also like to see a trainer having had a win in the last 2 weeks.The stats tab at the bottom of racing post is a great instant view of the current in form trainers and jockeys,also have my own easy 5 step syetem that picks value bets

  5. Michael – Full of good sense, and as logical and practical as ever. What’s not to like? How about keeping a record of contenders to see if reality backs up the theory…

  6. Thanks Michael for all the advice and tips you provide. I am new to horse racing and have tried a few tipster services without any major success, maybe because a cannot afford their staking plans. Anyway I am paper trading my own system at the moment which has made £708 from April 21st to April 30th using small £15 a race bets. I only bet on 6-8 runners and more than one horse in each race so a bit unconventional but the returns have been good. I only have a small betting bank each month so my aim is to increase it in small amounts until I can increase my stakes. May 1st and another small profit so hope it continues when I decide to actually use my cash! I love stats and systems taking away the doubt and indecision horse racing brings. Profit is profit no matter how big or small so keep the great advice coming in as I need all the help I can get. Thanks again.

    1. Great to hear you are paper-trading your own strategy. I strongly believe developing your own approach is the best way because it’s suited to your risk levels, time available, racing interest etc… and that makes it far more likely to succeed because it’s catering to your mindset. I very seldom bet just one horse in a race, so we’re doing something similar 🙂 Thank you for the feedback and kind words.

  7. Fascinating and very helpful.I need to take more time studying it, but even racing through it between seeing patients it has been quite an eye opener.I had been making too much emphasis on top speed and had not looked at connections at all
    After reading this I should be able to make better decisions.
    You would laugh if you knew some of the things that influence my choices

  8. Great and very helpful. I’m just confused as to how we find the best horse race with Solar Impulse on the 29th November excuse me if I am missing something.

    1. Hi Stephen,

      The race on the 29th November for Solar Impulse was regarded as his last best race as he came second within a couple of lengths. We would disregard any race, where the horse had come last or 4 to 5 lengths behind the winner if that makes sense.

      Hope that helps and let me know if you have any further questions.

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