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Football Betting Modelling
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Fidelcastro
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January 21, 2019 - 7:22 pm
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Hi david thanks for the interst I will put some stuff up.  

Michael  in answer to your BTTS question , hope you can follow this one 

That’s the beauty of Poisson. It can work out the probable outcomes with percentage probability on a number of outcomes such as home win, draw, away win, the over under market, BTTS and correct score markets.
Your interested in BTTS.

Basically we need to work out 4 pieces of data for Poisson.

If we pick a random game from tomorrow night and I will show you the BTTS prediction for that game.

Plymouth v Warsall

So I need to work out 4 bits of info

Home team attack strength
Home team defence strength
Away team attack strength
Away team defence strength

Basically how many goals does the home team score and loose compared to league average. How many goals does the away team score and loose compared to league average.

So both play English League 1.

Some people look at last seasons league averages but at this time of the Season I like to use current figures as the league is now 61% complete and more accurate than last season.

At home Plymouth score an average of 1.5 goals but concede an average of 1.79

Away from home, Walsall score an average of 1.07 goals and concede an average of 1.36

We then look at the League Averages for
Leauge 1 –

Average Home goals scored 1.42
Average Home goals conceded 1.25
Average Away goals scored 1.25
Average Away goals conceded 1.42

So let’s break it down,

Attack strength
Plymouths average home goals / league average home goals 

1.5 / 1.42 = 1.05 so Plymouth are scoring 5% more goals at home than the league average

Defence strength
Plymouths average home goals conceded / league average home goals conceded

1.79 / 1.25 = 1.43 so Plymouths home defence is shocking conceding 43% more goals than the league average

Walsall defensive strength
Average goals conceded away from home / league average goals conceded

1.36/ 1.42 = 0.95 so walsalls defensive record away from home is actually better than the league average conceding 5% less goals.

So we can now work out Plymouths expected goals in this game

Expected goals

Home team attack strength x away team defence strength x average number of league home goals

1.05 x 0.95 x 1.42 = 1.41

So Plymouth are expected to score 1.41 goals..

Walsall attack strength
We use the same formula as above so

Average goals scored away from home / average League goals scored away from home

1.07 /1.25 = 0.85 so Walsall have a poor goal scoring record away from home scoring 15% less than the league average

Away goals prediction
Away team attack strength x home team defence strength x average number of league Away goals

0.85 x 1.43 x 1.25 = 1.5

So Walsall are expected to score 1.5 goals

So our expected goals are
Plymouth 1.41
Walsall 1.50

We can now apply the Poisson formula and find the following distribution

Home win 35.67% odds 2.81
Draw 24.7% odds 4.05
Away win 39.66% odds 2.52

Actual bookies odds are
H 2.4 No value
D 3.6 No value
A 3.0 possible value bet

The bookies are giving 3.0 on an away win and we calculate odds of 2.52 so this is a good value bet

BTTS YES 1.7
N0 2.4

Both teams are expected to score

Correct scores

Top 4

1-1 
1-2 
1-0
2-1 

So in summary Poisson says-   very close game.

Walsall to WIN
BTTS – YES
Correct score 1-1 1-2 1-0 2-1

Lets see how this game plays out. Sods law it will be nothing like this lol

 

My opinion is 2-1 or more to Walsall will be the result 

 

.

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Fidelcastro
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January 21, 2019 - 9:05 pm
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David

I will have a look this week and see what games I can find of interest.  I won’t bother with the big Poisson explanation above for the selections but just put them up. I will let you know about stake plan as well see If We can hit a few good runs   

Welcome to the forums.  Get stuck in,  plenty going on with some great forums running.

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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January 21, 2019 - 11:36 pm
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Thanks for that Fidel, very interesting. I might have a play around with some data.

I have to be careful it doesn’t impact the time I spend on my horse racing or the stock market (which is where my real income comes from, but not as interesting as sport!).

Are there any leagues which you believe offer better value ?

With regard to the Ladbrokes ACCA, I’ll have a look this Friday and post my selections.

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David Fox
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January 22, 2019 - 11:12 am
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Fidelcastro said
David

I will have a look this week and see what games I can find of interest.  I won’t bother with the big Poisson explanation above for the selections but just put them up. I will let you know about stake plan as well see If We can hit a few good runs   

Welcome to the forums.  Get stuck in,  plenty going on with some great forums running.  

Thanks Fidel 

looks like quite a bit of work to do but look forward to how it pans out.

will watch the Plymouth match with interest tonight

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Fidelcastro
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January 22, 2019 - 3:26 pm
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David 

There is a well known un-writren law of the universe called Sods Law.  The minute I post all that above, sods law takes over so watch Plymouth win 5-0 now lol 

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Fidelcastro
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January 22, 2019 - 3:47 pm
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Michael

Here is a very very simple method of looking for good BTTS bets.

Not much football tonight so let’s take

Wimbledon v Fleetwood tonight

If you bring up the league 1 table for this year and look at couple of stats- 

Wimbledon at home so

Goals for
Goals against
All for home games

Wimbledon average 1 home goal per game
And concede 1.64 goals at home

Fleetwood away team

Goals for
Goals against
All for away games

Fleetwood average 1.07 goals Away
Concede 1 goal on average away from home.

So both teams very poor at scoring goals
We can make a prediction that this game has bore draw written all over it. Probably 1 goal in it.

Bookies odds

They have

Home win 2.62
Draw 3.30
Away win 2.90

Also the BTTS market shows

BTTS Yes- 1.95
BTTS No – 1.80

Correct score odds bare out bookies expected lack of goals.

Correct score market shows

1-1 at 6
1-0 At 7
0-1 At 7.5

So just looking at the stats quickly I would discard this game as it has a lack of goals from 2 poor teams. ( Fleetwood have good goal record at home so prob better BTTS when they are at home and not on the road)

I would use the same system to find your BTTS contenders if that’s the market you prefer.

I would look for average goals etc to be above 1.3

You should try paper trade a few using the stats this way see how you get on

Sods law this will be a 6 or 7 goal thriller now I have posted you this lol 

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Fidelcastro
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January 22, 2019 - 9:54 pm
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Quick update on above games 

Looked at 2 games

Plymouth v Walsall using Poisson.
Wimbledon v Fleetwood using stats
Looking only at the BTTS market.

———————————————————

This is how First game looked using Poisson –

Walsall – WIN
BTTS – YES
Correct score 1-1 1-2 1-0 2-1

I went for 2-1 Walsall

Actual result was 2-1 Plymouth

Walsall win odds were sitting at 3.20
With Plymouth the favourites at 2.25
Draw at 3.75
Correct score market for my guess 1-2 was sitting at 11

Correct score odds were
1-1 7
1-2 11
1-0 9.5
2-1 9

So we got 9 for the correct score 2-1

So you could have backed the top 4 score predictions and got 9 points for the 2-1 minus 3 for the other scores leaving 6 points profit

So
BTTS bet was correct
And the 2-1 Correct score was picked up

Only the winning team I called wrong.

——————————————————–
Wimbledon v Fleetwood
Not using Poisson but just the stats looking at BTTS market.

Bet would have been BTTS – NO due to lack of goals in stats.

BTTS – NO was sitting at odds of 1.75

Actual score was 3-0 Fleetwood.

Higher score than expected but the bet of
BTTS – NO was correct.

Although as I said I would have missed this game out. But shows you what you can pick up using the stats.   

 

I will have a wee play about and have some selections for us.  

I will look for some good BTTS accumulators as well as normal accumulators for us to bet on 

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Fidelcastro
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January 22, 2019 - 10:27 pm
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Might be good to have a look at correct score markets where for instance tonigt we could have 4 selections and still made a profit.  I will have a think around this market.  

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Fidelcastro
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January 23, 2019 - 8:15 am
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Accumulator

Had a look for some good BTTS accumulators for tonight and found these 2 good ones.

First one is the safer option if only betting on 1 of them.

I have added average goals after the team name. This is average goals scored this season at home if home team or average goals scored away from home this season if away team.

 

Accumulator 1

Celtic (2.89) v St Mirren (0.8)        BTTS – NO

Kilmarnock (1.9) v Rangers (1.5)   BTTS – YES

PSG (3.7) v Strasbourg (1.82)        BTTS – YES  

Accumulator returns 6

 

Accumulator 2

Celtic (2.89) v St Mirren (0.8)        BTTS – NO

Kilmarnock (1.9) v Rangers (1.5)   BTTS – YES

PSG (3.7) v Strasbourg (1.82)        BTTS – YES

Motherwell (0.9) v Hibernian (1.0)  BTTS – YES

 

Motherwell and Hibs are both very poor this season as can be seen by the lack of goals from both teams. Motherwell are not even averaging 1 goal a game So normally I would ignore this one but this game is sure to be red hot with both teams pushing for the win (Motherwell are fighting to keep out of the relegation battle) so both will leave gaps in defence so I recon both teams will score in this one. 

 

Accumulator returns 11.16 

I have 1 point on each accumulator. 

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Fidelcastro
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January 23, 2019 - 10:00 pm
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Tonights result

Celtic  v St Mirren            BTTS – NO       RESULT – WIN

Kilmarnock v Rangers      BTTS – YES       RESULT – WIN

PSG v Strasbourg            BTTS – YES       RESULT –  LOST

Motherwell v Hibernian    BTTS – YES       RESULT – LOST

Let down with the PSG game which was a French Cup game so I should have left

well alone. Form and stats usually go out the window with cup games.

Motherwell game I am so disappointed with.  I even said the stats showed lack of goals which they did.  It was clearly a BTTS – NO bet with the blatant stats screaming that in my face, but I decided to ignore the obvious and went with gut feeling which is the wrong approach. Final score was a measly 1-0

My own learning points

Don’t bet on cup games.

Trust the stats !!!!!

Still, only 2 points down. Make that up with one win. 

I will see what’s looking good for the rest of the week.

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Michael Wilding
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January 23, 2019 - 10:40 pm
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I have moved this thread into the main forum, I know it is currently called Horse Racing, but it’s a more appropriate place for it. If there’s more interest in other sports going forwards and more threads are started I will create a separate sports forum for them.

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Fidelcastro
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January 24, 2019 - 12:06 am
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Ok Michael 

Thanks for that 

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William Hamilton
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January 24, 2019 - 9:28 am
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Yes fidel, never ever ever ever use cup games in football predictions 🙂

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SimonG
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January 24, 2019 - 1:08 pm
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Just seen this and it sounds interesting.  I have never really been into the football markets and this has opened my eyes to use of stats in this area.

As it happens, I was playing around the other day and had a small bet on Plymouth to win (which they did).  Seeing this after the event made me think a bit.

We all know teams have dips in form, so I wondered whether using just the last 6 games, rather than the whole season, would make a difference.

When I ran the numbers as above for the game, it threw up a slightly different result.

I got an expected goals ratio of 2.14 – 1.87 which gave 

Home 2.23

Away 2.89

Draw 4.88

I took Plymouth at 2.38 (exchange), which was the value bet as it turns out.

It gave BTTS at 1.34, which was quite a lot lower than above, but the same four scores were most likely.

 

Obviously only a one-off, but would like to follow this through.

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Fidelcastro
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January 24, 2019 - 2:08 pm
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Cheers Simon thanks for the input.  

Might be worth checking last 6 and a season worth of stats.   The season will be more accurate overall as it covers peaks and troughs of the season.  Last 6 games could be a good or bad run outside the norm.  I will try running both at some time see what difference it makes .

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SimonG
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January 24, 2019 - 6:06 pm
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Afternoon.  Time on my hands so been thinking more about this today and come up with a few questions that you may be able to help with.

With so many football games available, how do you choose which ones to look at in order to get best value?

Or is it the case of focussing on a small set of games (eg Premier) and looking for the best value bets in each game each week?

Are there any markets that are better at providing winning value bets using this sort of statistical modelling?

Thanks for any help.

Simon

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Fidelcastro
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January 24, 2019 - 6:29 pm
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Simon 

My usual bets are a double or accumulator bet.

I usually have low odds bets with high probability percentage wins.  If this bet wins I re bet the winnings on next bet etc until I have reached an amount then reset and start again . If it looses I don’t chase losses just move on.   

 

The stats I use look at each league it doesn’t really matter what league it is to bet on. It’s the quality of the stats that interest me.   

 

I check all matches that are on for that particular night. Then see if there is any worth further examination. 

Tonight is mostly cup games in England Spain and France.

 

It can be the main European leagues to the Brazilian or Argentina leagues I don’t rule anything out.

  I have only dabbled in the BTTS market recently but there is definitely something worth perusing here.   

My main focus is going to look at 3 things 

Poisson on selected  games with focus on correct score markets. You will be amazed just how accurate it is.   The lowest odds usually start at around 6s and  average 7 or 8 so you can a really bet on say top 4 correct scores and if one comes up you still make profit. The Plymouth game is evidence of it where the odds on 2-1 was at 9s so even betting top 4 Poisson Distribution you would still have made 5 points on one game.

 

BTTS  Yes/ No markets 

Win accumulators.

I will keep you posted where I am.

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January 24, 2019 - 6:51 pm
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No bets using Poisson or stats but I like my football so I have gone for 

Chelsea win

Real Madrid win 

Espanyol BTTS – YES 

 

£10 returns £39

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Fidelcastro
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January 24, 2019 - 10:26 pm
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Result for tonight’s bet

Chelsea Win –             WIN
Real Madrid Win –      WIN
Espanyol BTTS YES – WIN

£10 returned £39
So next bet is a £39 stake

How to increase your stress levels-
Chelsea were 2 nil up, Espanyol bet was up and put to bed. Real Madrid game just kicked off AND Lozano goes and scores for Girona against Madrid in 7 minutes. !!!!!!!!!!!!
Then 1 each, then 2-1 Madrid, Then a penalty for Girona 66 minutes – 2-2. Then 3-2 Madrid at 77 minutes. Final score 4-2

Girona have been outstanding in recent games beating Sevilla 2-0 last week. Even knocked Atletico Madrid out of the cup last round making club history but I thought they had reached their limit tonight at the Bernabeau. However what a fight they put up.

Onwards.

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Fidelcastro
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January 25, 2019 - 12:40 pm
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Afternoon All

Bet for tonight using Poisson and full stats. See if we can get another win tonight. 

Hertha v Shalke
BTTS – YES

Hertha
Average home goals scored 1.75
Average home goals conceded 1.38
Shalke
Average away goals scored 1.00
Average away goals conceded 1.22

Besiktas v Erzerumspor
HOME WIN

My Bet is –

Hertha v Shalke
BTTS – YES
Besiktas v Erzerumspor
Home win

£39 ( Yesterdays winnings ) On the Double will Return £95.72

—————————————————————

Poisson Distribution on Hertha v Shalke

Poisson throws up the following distribution for this game. ( I’m interested in the correct score see if we can make it 2 from 2 in the correct score market)

Betting on the correct score we are PLUS 6 points after 1 game.
I have listed the top 4 scores for this game

Home win 40.91% odds 2.44 ( Bookies odds 2.62)
Away win 32.99% odds 3.03 ( Bookies odds 2.75)
Draw 26.1% odds 3.83 (Bookies odds 3.25)

You can see the Poisson odds are not a million miles off the bookmakers odds.

BTTS – YES odds 1.8 ( Bookies odds 1.8 )
Again Poisson is spot on with the predicted odds

Top 4 predicted scores. Bookmakers actual odds in brackets

1-1 odds 8.06 (6.0)
1-0 odds 11.28 (7.50)
0-1 odds 9.91 (8.0)
2-1 odds 13.1 (10.0)

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