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Topic Rating: +2 Topic Rating: +2 (2 votes) 
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Football Betting Modelling
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Fidelcastro
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March 13, 2019 - 1:51 pm
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I am going with 

 

Bayern v Liverpool BTTS – YES and 

Birmingham

Norwich

Barcelona 

All home wins tonight. 

 

Bet 365 offering a £25 free in play bet for the liverpool game so opted in for that one. 

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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March 13, 2019 - 4:43 pm
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Hi Fidel,

Lucky you, I don’t seem to have received that offer. Out of interest, how will you use your free bet?

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Fidelcastro
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March 13, 2019 - 9:40 pm
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Sorry Michael I went 

Lewandowski score anytime at 1.7 odds.  Not scored yet 81 mins lol 

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Fidelcastro
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March 13, 2019 - 10:06 pm
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Tonight’s results. 3 wins from the 4 almost a full house.

Bayern v Liverpool BTTS – YES    WON

Birmingham      LOST

Norwich            WON

Barcelona          WON

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SimonG
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March 13, 2019 - 10:18 pm
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Three for tonight

– Derby v Stoke < 2.5 (1.62) Won 0-0

– Norwich v Hull > 2.5 (1,64) Won 3-2

– Ajax v Zwolle > 2.5 (1.20) Won 2-1

+1.46pts profit

 

C/F 32 from 46 (70% s/r) with profit of 6.66 pts (14% RoI)

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Fidelcastro
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March 14, 2019 - 4:07 pm
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One double for tonight. Both home wins. I have found a good bit of value in the Inter Milan game. Inter are sitting at 2.30 which is extremely generous I think. Way over what they should be at home.  I must be missing something here.!!!!!

Inter Milan v Frankfurt             2.30
Benfica v Dynamo Zagreb       1.46

Double at 3.4

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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March 14, 2019 - 7:32 pm
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In terms of free bets it is logical to steer clear of short odds.

For example suppose you had 10 £10 free bets.

If you bet them on 1/1 chances then on average you would win 5 out of 10 and return £50.

If you bet them on 9/1 chances then on average you would win 1 out of 10 and return £90.

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SimonG
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March 15, 2019 - 7:54 am
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Just the one selection highlighted for tonight

–  Sociedad v Levante – Home win @1.92

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Fidelcastro
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March 15, 2019 - 8:53 am
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Nothing jumping out for me for tonight. 

Thanks Michael.   Bet 365 are throwing offers at me the now for some reason..

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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March 15, 2019 - 6:22 pm
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Premier value selections. Last week Southampton won at 7/2. Profit now 5 points.

This week’s selection Fulham at 14/1.

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MICHAEL CLARKE
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March 15, 2019 - 7:14 pm
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Last week’s ACCA the 4 bankers won so the £10 was returned as a free bet.

This week’s selections.

Date DIV Home Team Away Team ODDS
17/03/2019 D1 Bayern Munich Mainz 1.13
16/03/2019 P1 Porto MARITIMO 1.14
18/03/2019 G1 Aris Apollon 1.18
16/03/2019 SP1 Real Madrid Celta 1.18
16/03/2019 E1 Hull QPR 3.50
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Fidelcastro
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March 15, 2019 - 7:40 pm
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Thanks Michael 

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Fidelcastro
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March 16, 2019 - 12:49 pm
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Plenty of cracking football on this weekend

 

These are based on ELO ratings and recent good runs. All home wins..

Bulgaria
Cska v beroe   1.44

Croatia
Split v rudes   1.14   too low odds 

EPL
West ham v huddersfield  1.6

My Normal selections

Aberdeen   1.5
West Ham   1.6
Sunderland   1.5
St Johnstone  1.8

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Eamon Roberts
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March 16, 2019 - 2:16 pm
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Hi Bob,

Fingers crossed for Sunderland and Aberdeen, as I have those two as well!

I looked hard at the West Ham match but thought the odds weren’t generous enough. West Ham have only scored 37 goals, 23 of those were at home though. The issue I have is that they have conceded 20 at home. Admittedly, Huddersfield are really struggling to score and you would fancy anyone v Huddersfield ATM!

I decided to give it a swerve.

St Johnstone match has been postponed because of snow.

Good luck with your other selections.

E

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Fidelcastro
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March 16, 2019 - 3:05 pm
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Thanks Eamon.  I replaced St Johnstone  with

The Hamilton accies v Hearts game.  Went for Hearts DNB for this one. 

I agree totally with West Ham.   Any other opponent I would have body swerved but Huddersfield are really struggling so hopefully West Ham can pick up a bit of confidence here.  

I actually fancy 2 Nil West Ham lol lets see what happens.  

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Fidelcastro
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March 16, 2019 - 6:30 pm
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Todays results

West Ham game was a 7 goal thriller !!
5 wins from 6 today. The 3 ELO system bets all came good.

ELO Selections

Cska v           WIN
Split v            WIN
West ham     WIN

My Normal selections had 2 wins from 3

Aberdeen        LOST
West Ham      WIN
Sunderland     WIN
St Johnstone Postponed

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Fidelcastro
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March 17, 2019 - 10:58 am
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See if the ELO can keep up a winning run

ELO ratings system (All home wins)

Copenhagen v Hobro                  1.22
Midjitylland v Sonderjyske         1.22
Lyon v Montpellier                       1.44
PSG v Marseille                            1.28
Napoli v udinese                          1.22

Own system 

Napoli
Liverpool
PSG

I have these 3 on a treble for 2.0 

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SimonG
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March 17, 2019 - 11:52 am
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Sorry, busy this weekend and not had time to post up selections.

Yesterday, system had 18 selections of which 11 won for a return of 19.86pts

This gives a running total of 43 wins from 65 selections (66%) and a profit of 7.52 pts (11.5% RoI).

There are 11 selections today:

– Home win for Lyon, Bayer Leverkusen, Frankfurt, Lazio and Groningen

– Under 2.5 goals for Reims, Valencia, Aves, Tondela

– Over 2.5 for PSG and Bayern Munich

 

As results base builds I’ll have a closer look at either tightening selection criteria and/or revisit value points.

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Fidelcastro
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March 17, 2019 - 10:06 pm
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Todays results – Full House 8/8 

A very unusually good weekend between horses and football for me.

5 from 5 for the ELO system giving a total of 8 wins from 8 for the ELO last 2 days.

ELO ratings system

Copenhagen          WIN
Midjitylland            WIN
Lyon                        WIN
PSG v                      WIN 
Napoli v                  WIN

Own system results for a treble

Napoli            WIN
Liverpool       WIN
PSG                WIN

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SimonG
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March 17, 2019 - 10:25 pm
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Nice set of results Bob.

 

Of the 11 selections today, we had 10 winners – the only Loss was for Leverkusen.  This gave a 4.14 pt profit on the day.

– Home win for Lyon, Bayer Leverkusen, Frankfurt, Lazio and Groningen

– Under 2.5 goals for Reims, Valencia, Aves, Tondela

– Over 2.5 for PSG and Bayern Munich

 

Running total …  53 wins from 76 selections (70%) for a profit of 11.66 pts (15.3% RoI).

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