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Topic Rating: +3 Topic Rating: +3 (3 votes) 
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Football Correct Score System
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William Hamilton
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February 10, 2019 - 11:21 pm
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Due to the lack of horse racing at the moment I decided to open up my football book, which I don’t normally have time to use as my horse system takes up my time available to put towards this part of my life.

It is mainly based around low scoring games so if you wanted to, you could try to build an under 2.5 goals acca from the selections, I will leave this up to you as its not officially part of the system or is picking the actual game result from a H D A aspect just the correct final score.

I actually started this Friday, but rather than highjack Fidels post I moved it to here.

1pt per selection

French L2

Grenoble – Lorient – 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1    0-1  7.00
Troyes – Paris – 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1    0-1  6.00
US Orleans 45 – Le Havre – 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1    1-1  5.50

French L3

Tours – Avranches – 0-0 / 1-0 / 0-1    0-1  7.00
Concarneau – Laval – 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1    1-0  8.00

15 point spend with a 37.50 return which puts us at 22.50 points profit

Awesome start 🙂 

Results from today

Nantes v Nimes – 2-4     0 pts
Correct score 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1

Toulouse v Stade De Reims – 1-1     6.00 pts
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

Mountpellier v Monaco – 2-2     12.00 pts
2-1 / 2-2 / 3-2

Rennes v St Etiene – 3-0     0 pts
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

12 spend with 18.00 return which puts us at 28.50 points profit

 

Cheers

Will

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Fidelcastro
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February 11, 2019 - 12:38 am
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Thanks Will

Just out of interest if you don’t mind me asking, what is the system you use to find the selections.

Cheers 

Fidel 

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William Hamilton
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February 11, 2019 - 1:43 pm
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Fidelcastro said
Thanks Will

Just out of interest if you don’t mind me asking, what is the system you use to find the selections.

Cheers 

Fidel   

There are a few options to this answer and it comes down to how much time and effort you want to put into it.

You have the lazy option, look on the bookies site find a game that is priced up for the draw and the odds of the over 2.5 goals market is below 1.80 then look at the 3 short priced full time correct results which would normally be any of these three 0-0/1-0/0-1/1-1 and put your money on them, ta da 🙂 

The more in depth version which I use is a combination of info grabbed from 4 websites looking at home and away past 6 results for both teams, but the one marker that is required which ever way you choose is the bookies price of below 1.80 for the over 2.5 market I actually look for nearer 1.60. The tricky bit for me is to avoid the 0-0 as I don’t choose this score line as the one thing both teams are trying to do is get that ball in the back of the net, which is where game history come into it, obviously you cant be right all the time and the biggest affect on the game is that man running around in black, a single red cards blows most games wide open so try to avoid leagues with high red card counts.

Cheers

Will

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Fidelcastro
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February 11, 2019 - 3:16 pm
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Thanks for that will.     I Might try combining both this and poisson.  Use yours first to find the actual contenders then see what shows Up using poisson on them.

 

Thanks again my friend. 

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Fidelcastro
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February 11, 2019 - 3:49 pm
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Will 

 

Just had a quick run through this.  Does this look about right 

 

Italy SeriaB

Venezia v Lecce

All three odds split by only 0.4 points so
Bookies think close game and draw on the cards

Home @ 2.8
Draw @ 2.7
Away @ 2.4

Under 2.5 @ 1.62

Correct scores

1-1 5.5
0-1 7.0
1-0  8.0

Missing out the 0-0 score..

 

Would this fit your system or am I way off.  

Many thanks 

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William Hamilton
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February 11, 2019 - 5:06 pm
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Tricky Game that one it hits the first marker less than 1.80 on the O 2.5 goals, the bookies definitely think draw.

My first impression on this game is that it could actually end up 1-2 just as much as the other 3 definitely not a 0-0, Venezia have only failed to score at home once all season and Lecce have only failed to score once away from home.

Lecce won the reverse fixture 2-1, their home and away stats are almost identical, both teams have scored 18pts both 5 wins and 3 draws, but Lecce are the 2nd best team in the league in away fixtures, like I said tricky one.

So I would go 0-1 / 1-1 / 1-2

Double Chance X2

Under 2.5

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February 11, 2019 - 5:30 pm
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Cheers just testing the water. I agree with what you say.  It was more the initial process of finding contenders.  As you say 2 methods first is only odds checking, second is full analysys.. Once you look into this match further you find

Venezia home for and against   1.2      0.9

Lecce away  for and against  1.8       1.45

League averages

Home    1.45      1.06
Away     1.06      1.45

So venezia at home score just over 1 goal average at home which is below league average.

Lecce score almost 1.8 goals a game away and concede 1.45.  

It has 2-1 or 2-0 Lecce all over it lol  

Thanks again my friend 

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William Hamilton
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February 11, 2019 - 5:43 pm
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Yep the 0-2 is the banana skin

What I have for tonight so far

Italy Serie B 

Venezia v Lecce    0-1 / 1-1 / 1-2

Eng Prem

Wolves v Newcastle    1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1

Spain Prem

Alaves v Levante    1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1

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February 11, 2019 - 7:11 pm
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I only ran poisson for the wolves game this was the probability scores ( bookies odds on brackets)

Score   prob   expected odds         bookies odds 

1-0       16%             6.08                          (6)
0-0        15%            6.69                          (8.5)
1-1        13%            7.6                            (6.5)
0-1        12%            8.36                           (11)

 

Thanks again Will, much appreciated.  very interesting.  Let’s see how they all do tonight 

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William Hamilton
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February 11, 2019 - 7:44 pm
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No problem Fidel, happy to help 🙂

one more for tonight and I`m going to oppose the draw on this one

French L2

Brest v Auxerre    1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1

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William Hamilton
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February 11, 2019 - 10:48 pm
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Results for 11th Feb

Italy Serie B
Venezia v Lecce 0-1 / 1-1 / 1-2    1-1 – 5.50

Eng Prem
Wolves v Newcastle 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1    1-1 – 7.00

Spain Prem
Alaves v Levante 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1    2-0 – 0.00

French L2
Brest v Auxerre 1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1    1-0 – 7.00

Aleves kick us in the nuts in the 93rd min but Wolves rubbed them better in the 95th lol

12 point spend with 19.50 return which puts us at 36.00 points profit

Cheers

Will

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Fidelcastro
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February 11, 2019 - 11:32 pm
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Well done Will.

 

Just checked the earlier one I tried

( I know it was one of yours as well )

Italy SeriaB

Venezia v Lecce

Top rated score I found was 1-1 @ 5.5

Guess the final score ( rhetorical lol ) ??????  

Yea 1-1 lol  

Definitely something in your wee system.  

Thanks again for the help in explaining.  Will keep following yours 

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William Hamilton
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February 11, 2019 - 11:57 pm
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Cheers Fidel

Yea, good results tonight I was hoping Lecce would get their second as the return would have doubled for 1 goal 🙂

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William Hamilton
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February 12, 2019 - 11:49 am
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Selections for 12th Feb so far

Kenya Prem 

Kakamega v Kariobangi 12pm

1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 

Posta v Nzoia 12pm

0-1 / 0-2 / 1-1

Iran Pro League

Naft M S v Pars J M 1.45pm

1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

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William Hamilton
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February 12, 2019 - 7:27 pm
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12 Feb evening selections

Italy C Grp B

Monza v Vicenza 7.30pm

1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1

Imolese v Sambenedettese 7.30pm

1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1

Eng Champ as this seems to be the focus game of the night 🙂

Millwall v Sheff wed 7.45pm

1-0 / 1-1 / 2-0

Eng Lg 1

Sunderland v Blackpool 7.45pm

1-1 / 2-0 / 2-1

Eng Lg 2

Swindon v Forest green 7.45pm

1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1

Just noticed they are all draw or home wins mmmm.

Cheers

Will

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William Hamilton
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February 13, 2019 - 12:11 am
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Results for 12th Feb

Kenya Prem
Kakamega v Kariobangi 12pm    0-1  – 8.00
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

Posta v Nzoia 12pm    2-0  – 0
0-1 / 0-2 / 1-1

Iran Pro League
Naft M S v Pars J M 1.45pm    1-1  – 6.50
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

Italy C Grp B
Monza v Vicenza 7.30pm    2-0  – 0
1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1

Imolese v Sambenedettese 7.30pm    0-0  – 3.00 return for bet365 no score draw
1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1

Eng Champ as this seems to be the focus game of the night
Millwall v Sheff wed 7.45pm    0-0  – 3.00 return for bet365 no score draw
1-0 / 1-1 / 2-0

Eng Lg 1
Sunderland v Blackpool 7.45pm    1-1  – 6.50
1-1 / 2-0 / 2-1

Eng Lg 2
Swindon v Forest green 7.45pm    2-0  -0

1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1

24 point spend with 27 return which puts us at 39.00 points profit

Cheers

Will

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February 13, 2019 - 1:14 am
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Well done again Will.  39 points and not even half way through the month is outstanding. 

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William Hamilton
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February 13, 2019 - 10:11 am
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Cheers fidel 🙂

Sorry about forgetting to mention about the bet365 bore draw thing they do.

Selections for Feb 13th First Batch

Iranian football has a high draw rate in all of its leagues this one at last check was about 32% coupled with games with 3 or more goals at only 32% with an average of 2 goals per game makes this a perfect league for this system 🙂

The Azadegan Lg

Aluminium Arak v Oxin Alborz 10.30am

1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

Navad Urmia v Mes Kerman 10.30am

1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

Shahin Busher v Shahrdari Mahshahr 11.00am

1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1

Arvand A K v Baderan Tehran

1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

 

Cheers

Will

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February 13, 2019 - 11:53 am
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Cheers Will

 

That’s a great promotion with bet 365.  Means you actually cover 4 scores with money back on 1.  

Might give it a try 

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February 13, 2019 - 2:54 pm
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Nigeria Prem A/B

Niger Tornados v Enyimba 3.00pm

1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1

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