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Topic Rating: +21 Topic Rating: +21 (21 votes) 
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Poisson Distribution
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Fidelcastro
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March 13, 2019 - 6:57 pm
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Todays results

Lingfield 1.55

Favourite Shanghai Grace did indeed win this one. Best we managed was third with Fox Casper at 4.0

3.55

Gallopoli          4.0         Second
Call out loud    15          Fourth. 

Call out loud Appears to have ran a good race by all accounts.  

Kempton
5.45
A long race where we got it right with stamina rather than speed.

Busy Street First at 5.0

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SimonG
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March 13, 2019 - 10:31 pm
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Similar but different for me, Bob.

155 LING

Picked up Shanghai Grace for a win

355 LING

Nothing.  Call Out Loud was looking good for most of the race…

545 KEM

Although a NO BET race for me personally, the model did suggest Busy Street as well.

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Fidelcastro
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March 14, 2019 - 12:37 am
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What about this one tomorrow 

 

Southwell 6.30 

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Fidelcastro
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March 14, 2019 - 6:40 am
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Southwell  6.30

Key to power appears the one to be on. But at 2/1 little value for the risk I would say. So no bets today.

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SimonG
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March 14, 2019 - 9:00 am
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This would be a no bet race for me too.

Sandridge Lad at 8/1 may be a possible value play, but not an ew shout with only 5 runners.

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SimonG
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March 14, 2019 - 9:41 pm
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Of course Sandridge Lad wins…… lol

 

how about LING 500 and CFD 630 tomorrow?

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Fidelcastro
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March 15, 2019 - 8:59 am
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Ok sounds good let’s try these 2 today. 

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Fidelcastro
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March 15, 2019 - 10:03 am
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This is what I find 

 

LING 5.00

Fearsome               Probability 15%      3.0
Eddystone Rock    Probability 14%     6.0

Chelmsford 6.30

King Robert             Probability 16%       6.5
Primos Comet         Probability 15%      4.3

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SimonG
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March 15, 2019 - 10:28 am
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We have a difference of opinion on these.  I think both are quite hard to call.

 

A query, Bob.  LING 500 you have %ages at 15 and 14, but since there are only 7 runners, each would have 14% chance on average anyway.  Does this suggest no strong advantage in this race???

 

LING 500

I have PETITE JACK (11/4) and FIRE FIGHTING (7/1).  The latter does needs to fire after a long break and it was just ahead of Fearsome.

 

CFD 630

I have VERNE CASTLE (11/2), who doesn’t have the best draw, and SHAMSHON (9/2) with recent C&D figures of 5121.  If just purely on TS, then your two picks come out on top.

Good luck

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Fidelcastro
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March 15, 2019 - 12:52 pm
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Hi Simon.  

Re the 5.00.  Remember I only look at top 5 

I then look at each percentage within that for various strengths.  So overall I get percentages of the ones I look at.  The 15% strength  is against the top contenders.  So its 15% MORE  probability of winning.   

Hope that makes sense.  

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Fidelcastro
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March 15, 2019 - 7:45 pm
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Todays results

LING 5.00                 Not even a nibble. !!!!!!!!

Chelmsford 6.30     King Robert   First at  6.5

2.5 points profit for the day.

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SimonG
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March 15, 2019 - 8:47 pm
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Thanks for the description of what the numbers mean, Bob.

 

Today’s results

LING 500 A nice win with Petite Jack

CFD 620 a nice place for Verne Castle at 11/1.

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Fidelcastro
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March 15, 2019 - 11:01 pm
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Nice place with the 11/1..

 

I can see 3 races for tomorrow 

Wolves 6.15/ 6.45/ 7.15   fancy them ? 

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Fidelcastro
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March 16, 2019 - 12:16 am
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Simon this is my thought process for the first race give you an idea of what I do.

Wolves 6.15

10 runners. I automatically discard last 5 and concentrate only on top 5 of betting. I then have

Salute The Soldier
Executive Force
Illustrissime
Tough Remedy
Ballard Down

When I score top 5 I find –

Salute The Soldier 227
Executive Force 214
Illustrissime 188
Tough Remedy 188
Ballard Down 217

I then mess about with plus or minus 5% each score to give me ranges see what jumps out at me.

So right away I have 3 clear and 2 a good bit behind. So the 3 clear are now

Salute The Soldier
Ballard Down
Executive Force

So in terms of mean averages

Salute The Soldier 10% above
Ballard Down 5% above
Executive Force 3% above

So Salute The Soldier is clear first choice.
The race is just over 1m so speed may play a part so I look at TS for next 2

Ballard Down TS 95 Best on AW 87
Executive Force TS 84 Best on AW 85

So Ballard Down edging it based on its 5% above mean average and better TS on the all weather but really nothing separating these 2.

In terms of percentage I have

Salute The Soldier 22%
Executive Force 21%
Ballard Down 21%

So all 3 are actually in the mix for this one. odds are

Salute The Soldier 4.0
Executive Force 5.0
Ballard Down 12.0

 

Other 2 races are 

Wolves 6.45 Caplin / Paradise boy

Wolves 7.15 Tiger Eye / Toy Theatre

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SimonG
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March 16, 2019 - 1:40 pm
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Thanks for describing your system, Bob.  It looks fairly straightforward.

Today’s races…

615 Wolv

My model has TOUGH REMEDY (15/2) and SALUTE THE SOLDIER (13/8) as the main picks.  It also highlight BALLARD DOWN (16/1) as e/w shout

645 Wolv

This is a NO BET race for me – not enough form to base a decision on.  Would probably look at Albert Finney here.

715 Wolv

Handicap debut for odd-on fav (Tiger Eye) so difficult to judge.  Model suggests TOY THEATRE (7/2) and TREASURE ME (15/2).  The latter may be value e/w shout.

 

Good luck

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Fidelcastro
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March 16, 2019 - 7:29 pm
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Todays results

That was a very good day 3 Firsts from 3 races.
The prediction in the previous entry played out in all the races.

Wolves 6.15
Salute The Soldier   FIRST
Executive Force       SECOND

Wolves 6.45
Caplin                   FIRST
Paradise boy       SECOND

Wolves 7.15
Tiger Eye              FIRST
Toy Theatre          LOST

 

No bets tomorrow 

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SimonG
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March 17, 2019 - 12:04 pm
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Great results.  Not too bad for me either….

615 Salute The Soldier Won (albeit placed 2nd later).  Tough Remedy was 1/2length off in 4th.

645 No Bet

715 Treasure Me (e/w shout) was 2nd at 11/2 (15/2 ep).  

 

It would be interesting to see how your system works out for those races where my model cannot make a selection (say, for lack of data generally like the 645) and those where my model can make a selection.

 

I also need to consider staking.  For example, 715 I would probably have saver bet on Tiger Eye and e/w shot on Treasure Me.

 

Nothing to look at today.

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Fidelcastro
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March 17, 2019 - 12:21 pm
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I  know what you mean so from tomorrow you can check the races where your system cant select and compare to what I get just to compare them both.  

My starting point is always top 5 betting.  There is a reason the bookies list top 5 in odds in a particular order because even without too much data they have a rough idea the way the race will play out in probability. Plus we know 85% of winners come from here. I always think top 5 is very first step then look for more probabilities to build up my picture.

See what tomorrow brings..

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SimonG
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March 17, 2019 - 12:42 pm
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Totally agree that top 5 is likeliest place to find winners – but I also like to look at those that the bookies have underpriced, which may lie outside of the top 5.  I think the model is doing fairly well at identifying contenders from across the book and hopefully also identifying value.

Bookies prices also reflect where punters are placing their money and a lot of these will be led by the market … so a bit of a vicious circle.

Where there is less form to go on, these would normally be a NO BET for me as I would have no confidence in the selection – however, it appears that your system helps to identify winners quite well in this area.

Let’s keep developing this as I think we are getting somewhere.

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Michael Wilding
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March 17, 2019 - 12:50 pm
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Rather than using the bookies top five, don’t forget they’re also taking into account how punters are betting (which is more important to them than which horse will finish first), you could work it like this:

You have your raw scores and percentages. Use the bookmaker odds to adjust your odds so you’re taking market consideration into your figures. Then remove half the field based on these merged odds, or take the top five, then look for the value bets. If you/market seem to have a huge disparity, this can often help to find holes in the modelling process and can either mean you can highlight when a horse has this hole and so your odds are likely to be wrong, or can show mistakes in the betting, or can show when someone is trying to force odds on a horse through betting others 😉

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