Yesterday I sent out an email with free horse racing tips. Actually, they weren’t horse racing tips, as you can clearly see below where I’ve copied the email.
Today, I want to share with you how I found the winner so that you can do it yourself in future 🙂
If you didn’t get yesterday’s email, then you missed out because you don’t get our newsletters. Luckily that’s easily remedied by either going here and entering your email, or entering it into the form a little bit lower down this page.
Now, here’s what I wrote yesterday.
YESTERDAY’S FREE HORSE RACING TIPS EMAIL
A few months ago I asked you to let me know what kind of content you’d like to get in our weekly emails.
You said that you’d like:
1) Horse racing tips
2) Betting strategies and how-to guides
3) Race analysis and previews
4) Bankrolls, staking and other betting advice
I’ve been pretty good at getting the strategies and how-to guides out. There’s been at least one a month, and usually two.
But… I’ve not been so great with the other three items you requested.
So I’m sorry for being a bit of a turd.
Life kinda got in the way.
However, I’m aiming to be much better, starting today 🙂
Before I give you one of my strongest selections for the day, I’d like to clarify something first.
This is not a tip.
If you’ve been reading the RA newsletter for a while, skip over this. If you’re new, this is very important.
In over a decade helping bettors turn their betting profitable, I’ve discovered one thing to be true for 90% of bettors…
90% of bettors who bet on a tip without looking at the horse any further never become profitable bettors
It’s not because the selections aren’t profitable. It’s because of all the other stuff that isn’t talked about as much.
Nobody likes talking about the boring stuff, the stuff that doesn’t directly result in a 20/1 winner.
But that’s the stuff which determines whether you’re going to be a long-term profitable bettor, or someone who loses.
The size of your bankroll, your ability to cope with downswings, how long you can psychologically survive a losing streak, whether you like regular winners or prefer higher odds, and your time availaibility.
All of these elements are important to being a successful bettor.
Which is why just following someone elses selections never works.
And why we don’t provide any tipping services at the Race Advisor.
Because we want you to be long-term profitable. And we know that providing tips doesn’t do that.
I am happy to share our contenders.
Such as Jatiluwih in the 15:30 at Wetherby.
He looks to be an incredibly strong horse. I think he’ll be contending coming into the last, and if he doesn’t win, he’ll take a place.
And he’s currently offering value odds.
Why am I saying he’s a contender and not just a tip?
Because of all the reasons above, and there’s almost never just one single horse that has a chance at winning a race.
Personally for me, this horse is the strongest in the race. I’ll probably be placing an 80/20 bet on him, but will wait a little bit longer to see what the market does before making my final decision, as I’m available to look at it.
I suggest that you go and have a look at the race. If you agree with my assessment that this horse is a strong contender, make a decision as to how strong you think he is, and place your wager using your preferred approach.
Nothing’s hidden, any questions on them just leave me a comment and I’ll explaing all.
All the best,
The Race Advisor
HOW YOU CAN FIND YOUR OWN FREE HORSE RACING TIPS
It’s all well and good being shown how a selection which wins. But I want you to be able to do it on your own, so this is how I did it yesterday…
I began with the Race Advisor Pro Members Club Daily Digest email. It’s totally customisable, but shows you a range of races and horses that you can focus on if you’re short of time. Think of them as pointers, you still need to look into them further but you’re not running amok against forty or fifty races and hundreds of horses.
Mine looks like this:
Yesterday I chose to focus on the Best Four VDW Races. These show you our how strong our VDW, Van Der Wheil, ratings are (they’re a modified version of the traditional VDW) for a particular race, both in finding horses that win and place.
The 15:30 at Wetherby looked to be the strongest because in similar races they’d predicted the horses coming in place 100% of the time, and winning 83.33% of the time.
So I headed over to the race and saw this:
I used very little of the information on the card next, because I already knew that the VDW ratings were powerful in this race. Of course, I began by looking at the VDW score. As you can see above, Jatiluwih was the best horse based on VDW. For our VDW Odds, the better the horse the lower the score, just like an odds line.
***The Betfair odds column is showing 0’s above, and the VDW Score is showing 0’s below, because we haven’t yet received the Betfair SP odds for this race, and it took place yesterday***
Clicking on the VDW Odds for the horse we get an overlay which shows us the components of the score.
The VDW Form is pretty much the same for all the horses in this race, but the VDW Ability score shows Jatiluwih having a significantly higher score than the next best.
Which is all I was looking for. A strength that highlighted this particular horse.
From here I used just four more pieces of information, they’re highlighted in the image below.
The PR Odds, RR, 5278 CFR and DSLGR.
I began with the DSLGR (Days Since Last Good Race), and can see there are only three horses that we would consider have had a good race at all, and except for Jatiluwih they happened quite a long time ago.
Another positive for our contender.
Next the 5278 CFR ranks the contender as number 1. When I’m looking for selections like this, I like the horse to be in the top four, but being top ranked is extra icing on the cake.
Going back left I came to the RR (Reynolds Ranking) next, where the lower the score the better. Once again I saw that the contender was considered the best, yet another positive.
Lastly I clicked on the PR Odds for the horse to see the raw scores. The actual PR odds are merged with the live Betfair odds, on this occasion I didn’t want that, I just wanted to see our raw scores, which were…
As you can see, Jatiluwih has a total score far higher than the next best, which means that the probability we are giving this runner of winning is significantly better.
Excellent, another plus point.
Combined with this, it looked like the market didn’t realise the potential of this horse, as the odds on offer when I placed my bet were 5.00 to win and 1.68 to place.
However… if I’d waited a bit longer, or took Betfair SP, then I’d have got odds of 9.00 on the horse to win and 1.89 to place. Yesterday I wasn’t available to watch the market, but you can see the benefit of doing it if you can.
Next… I chose how I wanted to bet on the horse.
Because I knew that the VDW score was a good indicator of how the horse would fair, and the odds offered on the place market meant if the horse only placed I could cover my losses on the win market by placing an 80/20 bet, it made sense for me to place that bet. Which is what I did.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll probably say it again, but finding winning selections doesn’t have to be complicated. The simpler you make it, the quicker and more fun it is to find them. As a general rule, the more complicated the selection finding process, the more likely you are to back-fitting.
I hope that you find this overview of how I found yesterday’s winning free horse racing tip useful. I’d love to know if you enjoyed this blog post, if you’re going to use this process, or if you already use something similar. Please spend a moment to leave me a comment below.