It is that day of the year where we tackle with the form books to try and work out who is going to win this race with 44 runners! There are plenty of people using trends for the Grand National and so I thought I would do it slightly differently. First of all we are going to remove the non-runners of which there are currently 4.
We have to narrow down the field in order to look at this race seriously. I am going to do this using the RA Graphs in the members area. These graphs are unique to the Race Advisor and show the previous speed figure, finish positions, variance and more for a horse over the last year. They are very easy to use to quickly narrow down large fields by focusing on the performance levels for races with as similar conditions as possible.
There are too many runners to go through each graph in this post but you can see an example of a graph below.
Using the graphs takes out another 18 runners. Based on these graphs the strongest runners look to be The Midnight Club, West End Rocker, Giles Cross, Calgary Bay, Neptune Collonges, Junior, Planet Of Sound and According To Pete.
We still have far too many runners to make our selection though. I don’t like to bet on any horses who have not run a good race in a long time, so I am going to remove any who have not had a good race in a year or longer. This takes out another 3 runners.
Next I am going to use a combination of our 5278 rating, which is a compiled rating, and our pure form Contender Strengths. I am looking for runners who are weaker in both and they will be removed from the contenders. This removes another 4 runners but we still have 12 potential contenders!
I am now going to go bak to the RA Graphs and remove any runners who have not performed well over a Hurdle or Chase recently.This leaves us with 8 contenders in Synchronised, Planet Of Sound, Neptunes Collonges, According To Pete, Junior, Postmaster, West End Rocker and Giles Cross.
Now it is time to look at these runners in a bit more detail…
Has been making steady improvement over the last 4 races. Has the class to win and the volatility of the performance is low. Good projected speed over the distance and good Trainer/Jockey figures means we need to keep this runner in.
Planet Of Sound
Has been improving over the last 4 races but not as significantly as Synchronised. The volatility level is higher but has the potential to win. The projected speed over the distance is excellent, but there is no connections form. The only reason this horse was not removed from the RA Graphs is because the speed figure shows that the potential is there to surprise everyone. An outsider but could make a strong each-way bet.
Once again everything is indicating that this runner could win the race. A good projected speed, an improvement in performance recently (although not as good as Synchronised) indicates we cannot ignore.
According To Pete
Unsurprisingly this runner also looks good, however we have to make some cuts to our field and his figures do not quite match up to Neptunes Collonges and Synchronised. There is a preference for a harder going than he may get today and so I am going to remove him from contention.
This looks to be quite a volatile runner which is a concern and the improvement has not been pronounced. A good race last time out but it was a big jump from previous performances and he would need to do it again at a very long distance to to compete. In a field of the best runners there are too many if’s for this horse to feature in the contenders list.
I have concerns with Postmaster’s performance over the distance. Can he win over this distance? Possibly but at this class is another story. A great performance last time out but the distance change of 2 miles is too much for me to be happy with.
West End Rocker
He has been a solid performer over the last 4 races. All the figures indicate that this horse could put in a good run. More importantly today, there is nothing indicating that I should remove him and so we are going to leave him in as a contender.
Excellent improvements in the last few races but not looking as strong on the form as the other runners. The class is lower than the others and while I think a good performance can be expected we need to be ruthless. In this case however there is enough to recommend him for me to leave him in for now.
This leaves us with just 5 contenders, a much more suitable figure. These contenders are Synchornised, Neptune Collonges being the strongest with West End Rocker and Giles Cross following up. Planet Of Sound is an outsider who could perform very well if he gets a good run.
The question is how to bet! In this race we want to cover our bases as much as possible so I am going to be betting on all of these runners in a dutch bet before following up with a combination of place bets, forecasts and exactas.
Let me know who you think is going to win one of the biggest races in the world and why by leaving a comment below.