I was recently browsing through some of the posts on the Race Advisor and I came across this one.
In it I take a look at what exactly a going allowance is and why you would want to use one. It’s a pretty good read if I do say so myself 😉
If you create, or have been thinking of creating, your own speed figures then it’s a mus tread. In fact… if you use somebody else’s speed figures then you should read it as well just to understand how a going allowance works.
In brief, the going allowance is a figure that tells you how much to adjust your speed ratings by to take account of the condition of the ground.
A horse running on heavy ground is going to run a lot slower than a horse on firm ground. The going allowance takes that into account so that you can compare a speed rating between both of these horses on a fair basis.
So today… I’m going to show you a simple way to calculate your going allowance.
This requires a few steps, and the first one is to find the Standard Time for your race. A number of websites create their own standard times, and of course you can create your own. In this example I’m going to use the Racing Post.
Since the Racing post started charging for elements of their website, the standard times are no longer available for free. However somebody over on The Racing Forum compiled a list a few years back.
Yes, they’re going to be slightly out of date. But they are good enough to understand how to calculate a going allowance. If you’re seriously going to want to create your own speed ratings then you should be calculating your own standard times. Let me know if you’d like to learn how by leaving a comment at the end of this post.
Once you’ve downloaded this file open it up and find the course that you are wanted to calculate your going allowance for, find the distance and type of the race and look across to the RP Standard column.
I’m going to use Perth over the distance of 2 miles and 4 furlongs which has a standard time of 4m44s or 284 seconds.
My preference is always to work in seconds only as there is just one single number that relates to the time and is easier to do calculations on.
Now that you know the standard time for the race you are working on, you need to compare the time the race took with the standard time. Here is the race I am using:
The time of the race was 5 minutes and 11.70 seconds. That’s the same as 311.70 seconds. The standard time is 284 seconds so the difference is 27.70 seconds.
We now need to work out the difference on per mile basis. The race was 2 miles 4 furlongs. Again I like to change this into a single figure, since we need the distance in miles we convert 2 miles 4 furlongs into 2.5 miles.
The conversion is easily done on Google by typing in:
2 miles 4 furlongs in miles
Google will then automatically do the conversion for you.
To work out the difference in time on a per mile basis we take our 27.70 seconds difference and divide it by 2.5:
27.70 ÷ 2.5 = 11.08
The difference is 11.08 seconds per mile. Repeat this process for every race at the course on the day and you will end up with a table like this:
|Races At Perth||Standard Time||Actual Time||Difference||Difference Per Mile|
*Please note that a distance of 3 miles doesn’t exist in the spreadsheet as that distance wasn’t raced at Perth when it was created. For the purposes of this example I took an estimate of what the standard time would be.
All of these races were run slower than the standard time. Next we need to remove the outliers. These are the races with the highest and lowest difference per mile figure. We do this because we don’t want to put exceptionally fast or slow times into our calculates to try and stop them from being biased.
That means we remove the 11.08 and the 6 from the following calculations.
Now all you need to do is take the four remaining difference per mile figures:
And… calculate the average of them. The average of these numbers is: 7.82
Convert this back to the average time for the distance of the race, in this case we multiply it by 2.5, the same as we divided it earlier, for 7.82 x 2.5 = 19.55
You can now remove this number from the Actual Time figure to get the winner’s time with the going allowance taken into account:
|Actual Time||Actual Time With Going Allowance|
Congratulations, you’ve just calculated a going allowance for a day’s racing at a course and adjusted the winning time of the races to take account of this going allowance.
You can now go ahead and calculate your speed ratings.
If you’re not sure how to calculate speed ratings and would be interested to know, then leave me a comment below this post.