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How To Find Selections With No-Form Reading In Less Than 2 Minutes

There’s no doubt about it, form reading can be tough. Not only can it be tough, but it can also take quite a bit of time.

Imagine if there was a way to find selections with no form reading.

And you could do it in less than two minutes.

Well there is, although I would still recommend you take these selections and check out their form because there is no substitute for making bigger ROI’s than using your own analysis.

In order to do this we’re going to need to check out some stats.

Stat Number 1

The favourite wins 33% of the time and loses around 8% of everything bet to SP.

Stat Number 2

Horses that have never run a race before win 6.9% of the time and lose 37.80% of everything bet to SP.

Stat Number 3

Horses with SP odds of 28/1 or higher win 1% of the time and lose 56.1% of everything bet to SP.

Stat Number 4

88% of winners come from the first half of the field+1.

These stats give us some great insights because it tells us that…

A. Favourites win the majority of races but make a loss on returns
B. Horses that have never run before are a very bad bet
C. Horses that have odds of 28/1 or higher are an even worse bet

Using this information we’re in a position to very quickly shortlist the runners we want to bet on in a race.

We start by sorting the runners into odds order, from low to high, and remove any that aren’t in the first half of the field +1.

Next we remove any horses that haven’t run before, have odds of 28/1 or higher or are the favourite in the race.

Screen Shot 2015-07-13 at 21.02.31

In the above race there are nine runners, half the field+1 would be 6 runners. That means all horses after Ciaras Cookie are removed.

None of these runners have odds of 28/1 or higher and all have raced before, so none are removed for those rules.

Next we remove Tancred who is the favourite and that leaves us with…

Picansort, Gypsy Rider, Mimi Luke, Compton Prince, Ciaras Cookie

That’s five possible selections found almost immediately from a field of nine. Of course we don’t want to be betting all five, in fact generally I don’t like to bet more than half the field -1. Which in this example would 4 runners.

So what do we do to shrink the number of runners down to a bettable amount?

We use a rating 🙂

If you’re a Racing Dossier user you may want to consider the 5278 Contender Finder or the Contender rating. If you’re not then you can use any rating you like. In this example I will use the RPR rating.

This time we’re sorting the race card by order of our rating:

Screen Shot 2015-07-13 at 21.04.54

We now want to take half the field -1 from the runners that are left who are ranked strongest in the rating we are using for this stage of the process.

Remember that the runners we’re focusing on are Picansort, Gypsy Rider, Mimi Luke, Compton Prince, Ciaras Cookie.

We’re only looking for four which would give us Picansort, Ciraras Cookie, Mimi Luke and Compton Prince.

You now have your selections for this race, and it took way less than two minutes.

The best way to bet these are to dutch them or box them in forecasts. Boxing them will give you some very big payouts.

Important Notes

When using this approach you will be beaten, often multiple times in a row, by the favourite. You should be prepared for this. We are not removing the favourite because it doesn’t win often, we are removing it because it represents a bad value bet most of the time.

You will always have multiple selections in a race using this approach, this is to be expected. If you don’t like having multiple selections you will need to use your form reading skills to reduce the number of runners that you bet on. This can also give your ROI a big increase.

The profits from this approach will come from the high odds selections.

This method is designed to enable you to find selections rapidly that can give you some very big payouts. I recommend that you practice and paper trade it for a while and then adjust it to suit your own betting styles.

If you’ve got any questions then please leave me a comment below.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

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25 Comments

    1. Boxing is where you have multiple selections and aren’t sure what order they’ll finish in. For example you want to bet an exact but have four horses that could finish, you box them in multiple exacta bets so that you win should any order come in 🙂

      1. Hi Michael. Perhaps an article explaining more about boxing might be appreciated by many of your readers? I know I’d like to see that and would undoubtedly glean a lot. How to construct your boxes/bets etc?

    1. It has been designed to work across all races but I would recommend the races where the majority of runners have got a good amount of racing history. Of course if you also choose conditions you are most comfortable with and knowledgable about then you can take the shortlist and look at those runners in more detail as well which could significantly increase your profitability.

  1. Surely when we sort by RPR then look for four only, Compton Prince and Gypsy Rider are both on 65.

    So why do you take Compton Prince in preference to Gypsy Rider(.. ultimately the winner!)?

    When sorting by RPR I can detect no logic in the order that duplicates/triplicates are listed. Can you?

  2. Re Stat 2 and Stat 3, since they’re such terrible value bets, how about, you know, laying them blindly? Seems like the logical conclusion.

    1. Potentially that could be possible John, however it doesn’t always work like that as odds are higher on Betfair and then you have commission. You would want to paper trade it first to make sure.

  3. Hi Michael,

    Just read your article. In your answer to Daniel you say you were using a Racing Dossier Rating and not the RPR.

    But you did say above that you were using the RPR in the example.

    Perhaps another example from your good self using RPR’s would make things a little bit more clearer.

    Kindest regards

    Ramsey

    1. Michael,

      Sorry I hit the reply button above too soon,

      As regards odds and dutching and the stats regarding 28/1 shots (which I agree with) – you did write another article sometime ago about wagering and dutching in which you said – horses with odds of 14/1 or less just before the start is a race win around 92% of races.

      Therefore would it be prudent to take this into account with latest method above?

      If so, how best would / could you put it into action?

      Kindest regards

      Ramsey

      1. Good question 🙂 You could certainly include this as well. I haven’t tested using them both but you could implement the 14/1 or less rule on bet placement. So you’d use the approach outlined and then when it came to placing your bet wait as close to the off as possible and only include runners that were 14/1 or less. This would mean you’d miss the occasional higher odds winner but your profits may increase, it would certainly be a good one to test.

    2. Hi Ramsey, you’re right I did! I was obviously intending to do it to RPR and for some reason used the Racing Dossier instead without realising. I’ll look at doing another example. However if you do look at RPR, like Daniel said you wouldn’t have been able to separate the final two and we would have ended up with five. This is fine and happens whichever rating you are using, you either choose to move on or dutch the five in the race instead.

  4. Hi
    I’m sorry Michael, but I’ve got to agree with Daniel above I’ve only just read this and think the system is good but I think you should clarify what Daniel is saying about the rating having two the same.

    Brian

    1. Just replied to Ramsey on the same Brian 🙂 Here it is…

      I was obviously intending to do it to RPR and for some reason used the Racing Dossier instead without realising. I’ll look at doing another example. However if you do look at RPR, like Daniel said you wouldn’t have been able to separate the final two and we would have ended up with five. This is fine and happens whichever rating you are using, you either choose to move on or dutch the five in the race instead.

  5. Using the 5278 rating for the above can allow you the option to by-pass the race altogether or re-consider the favourite if it is top rated.I understand this goes against the grain of the system but does open up a few more avenues to consider! Opinions appreciated.

  6. Two points you throw in 88% of winners come from half the field +1 but make no reference to the origin ie does it refer to handicaps non handicaps or all races This very basic piece of information is hugely important and the first port of call for all racing stats although often ignored.Second point on odd number of runners eg 9 I would take 4.5 +1 and go for the 5 rather than six Once again how was this stat arrived at as above(race type) and how was the half treated my way or yours

    1. Thanks for the message Doug, this is just a general figure across all races and it does have variance year-to-year to a degree. Of course it will also be different if you break down into race types, courses etc…

      To be honest the way the rounding up was devised was purely by trial and error. I haven’t done a statistical analysis into it but rather found that to be more effective for me over the years.

      1. I must say I find that reply disappointing and worrying if you start spouting percentages I would expect them to be well researched are backed by hard evidence and releveant to race in question not hearsay and guesswork which is simply misleading and irresponsible

  7. I’m afraid I don’t see the logic in this. The favourite is removed because it is supposedly bad value, but the favourite returns a greater amount to SP than any other runner in the race.

    1. Hey Ashley, what do you mean by the favourite returns a greater amount to SP than any other runner in the race? I am miss-understanding what you’re saying because the SP on the favourite will always be the shortest and so they’ll return the least amount of any runner in the race should they win.

      1. Hi Michael. As the article states: “The favourite wins 33% of the time and loses around 8% of everything bet to SP.” However, the second favourite loses 11% to SP. The third favourite loses 15% to SP. The favourite loses less than any other selection to SP. So why discount the favourite?

        1. Good question Ashley. While the second and third favourites make a worse return flat betting, you will find that they’re easier to find an edge on than the favourite. That’s not to say you can’t make a profit of favourites, it’s just difficult, and this particular approach is designed to reduce the field as quickly as possible.

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