There’s no doubt about it, form reading can be tough. Not only can it be tough, but it can also take quite a bit of time.
Imagine if there was a way to find selections with no form reading.
And you could do it in less than two minutes.
Well there is, although I would still recommend you take these selections and check out their form because there is no substitute for making bigger ROI’s than using your own analysis.
In order to do this we’re going to need to check out some stats.
Stat Number 1
The favourite wins 33% of the time and loses around 8% of everything bet to SP.
Stat Number 2
Horses that have never run a race before win 6.9% of the time and lose 37.80% of everything bet to SP.
Stat Number 3
Horses with SP odds of 28/1 or higher win 1% of the time and lose 56.1% of everything bet to SP.
Stat Number 4
88% of winners come from the first half of the field+1.
These stats give us some great insights because it tells us that…
A. Favourites win the majority of races but make a loss on returns
B. Horses that have never run before are a very bad bet
C. Horses that have odds of 28/1 or higher are an even worse bet
Using this information we’re in a position to very quickly shortlist the runners we want to bet on in a race.
We start by sorting the runners into odds order, from low to high, and remove any that aren’t in the first half of the field +1.
Next we remove any horses that haven’t run before, have odds of 28/1 or higher or are the favourite in the race.
In the above race there are nine runners, half the field+1 would be 6 runners. That means all horses after Ciaras Cookie are removed.
None of these runners have odds of 28/1 or higher and all have raced before, so none are removed for those rules.
Next we remove Tancred who is the favourite and that leaves us with…
Picansort, Gypsy Rider, Mimi Luke, Compton Prince, Ciaras Cookie
That’s five possible selections found almost immediately from a field of nine. Of course we don’t want to be betting all five, in fact generally I don’t like to bet more than half the field -1. Which in this example would 4 runners.
So what do we do to shrink the number of runners down to a bettable amount?
We use a rating 🙂
If you’re a Racing Dossier user you may want to consider the 5278 Contender Finder or the Contender rating. If you’re not then you can use any rating you like. In this example I will use the RPR rating.
This time we’re sorting the race card by order of our rating:
We now want to take half the field -1 from the runners that are left who are ranked strongest in the rating we are using for this stage of the process.
Remember that the runners we’re focusing on are Picansort, Gypsy Rider, Mimi Luke, Compton Prince, Ciaras Cookie.
We’re only looking for four which would give us Picansort, Ciraras Cookie, Mimi Luke and Compton Prince.
You now have your selections for this race, and it took way less than two minutes.
The best way to bet these are to dutch them or box them in forecasts. Boxing them will give you some very big payouts.
When using this approach you will be beaten, often multiple times in a row, by the favourite. You should be prepared for this. We are not removing the favourite because it doesn’t win often, we are removing it because it represents a bad value bet most of the time.
You will always have multiple selections in a race using this approach, this is to be expected. If you don’t like having multiple selections you will need to use your form reading skills to reduce the number of runners that you bet on. This can also give your ROI a big increase.
The profits from this approach will come from the high odds selections.
This method is designed to enable you to find selections rapidly that can give you some very big payouts. I recommend that you practice and paper trade it for a while and then adjust it to suit your own betting styles.
If you’ve got any questions then please leave me a comment below.