Guest post written by Anthony Raine
Never has there been a better time to invest in cricket markets there is no doubt that the introduction of the Twenty20 version has revolutionised cricket as we knew it and it looks like it is here to stay. This is good news for traders and punters alike.
Not that long ago cricket markets where limited to match odds and top batsmen. If you wanted to bet in running well, you could simply forget about it. That has changed mainly due to the introduction of betfair and you can now bet on numerous markets, most bookmakers now bet in running on live cricket and thanks to our friends at Sky the coverage of cricket has never been on our screens with such regularity.
We are going to concentrate on the Twenty20 format and a few of the techniques that I use.
My first port of call is always http://www.cricinfo.com to check team news, weather forecasts (a must if the game is in England) and stats that will back up your bets.
Team news in cricket, like most team sports, is imperative and Cricinfo are bang up to date with the team news. The omission of a top batsmen or bowler can tip the odds in our favour and as in all sports betting value is a must to make a long term profit.
After checking the team news you need to check current form and head to head’s which you can find on the same site. You can do this by using the stats guru feature under the statistics tab on the site. You can put so many variables into the stats guru it really is a superb tool and best of all its free.
The weather is a key element that you should always check because if it rains the Duckworth Lewis method is used if overs are lost. The D-L method is a mathematical equation devised to work out what a team would have scored if it hadn’t rained, it is used to set totals and alter them. The majority of the time it works in the favour of the team batting second as they will know what they require at the end of each over if it rains, I tend to wait to see who wins the toss and what they decide if rain is forecast. I also tend to favour the team batting second, but don’t back the team blind if all the other factors are in the other teams favour.
In Twenty20 there are two possible outright results and this is the market in which we are going to get involved. We are looking for matches where the two teams are evenly matched and I determine this by the betting exchange odds. This means we are looking for teams that are Favourites and not less than odds of 1.8, the outsider of the two teams should not have odds higher than 2.10. I have found that these games fluctuate a great deal in a short space of time and we can trade our position in running to guarantee a profit, sometimes even before the first innings is over.
A team can go from opening odds to 1.50 or less in a matter of minutes and this is where we step in, if it goes the other way and the team we have backed go out in price don’t panic. I can assure you that in most games the favourites will flip-flop.
This happens time after time, I backed Lancashire Lighting against Essex Eagles on Tuesday evening at odds of 2.10 before play. They started well and by 15 overs they were trading at odds of 1.55 so I traded my position and guaranteed myself a three figure profit before sitting back and enjoying the game. Essex, batting second, were never in trouble chasing a big target and by 10 overs of the second innings where trading at odds of 1.5 and went on to win with an over to spare!!
On August 14th at the Rose Bowl, the Twenty20 finals day takes place. The 2 semi-finals are tightly matched and will be ideal matches to get involved with.
On the outright winner market I think HAMPSHIRE HAWKS are well worth a wager at 4.8 on Betfair, they have the advantage of playing at home and have the easier draw in the semis.
Yours in sport
Having worked as a manager for the biggest bookmaker in the UK, Anthony has now decided to join the world of full time professional bettors. Although betting on horses daily, his main focus is cricket but takes an interested in rugby league, football and occasionally tennis and darts.