July Festival – Day Three Preview

(Last Updated On: July 11, 2015)

Like a child at Christmas I have been up since 3.00 this morning studying and analysing the form of today’s racing and what a day we have with big field handicaps at Newmarket, York and Ascot which are manna from heaven for me!

I know you will probably think that I am really sad getting up at this ungodly hour but I find you need to put the work in to be successful. To look at all the different angles, collateral form, the markets etc. then comparing ratings and forming your own market all take time, so when there are a lot of runners like today and you want to achieve the prices that you are looking for the loss of a few extra hours in bed is a small price to pay, you just hope that all the hard work and lack of sleep is worthwhile in the end!

So what have I come up with, well I have analysed all 10 televised races today and will have an interest in each of these but for the purposes of this column I have narrowed this down to 4 races and will be dutching 2 horses in each race as the prices on offer allow this.

So if we start with the 2.10 at Ascot the two that I will be concentrating on here are Barnet Fair and Double Up. Barnet Fair is a seasoned campaigner and on a going day is a quality animal, he possesses a powerful turn of foot which in this type of race is a big plus. He also gets top rating from the system and at 10/1 which is about the right price he becomes my first selection of the day.
I am also going to back the consistent Double Up who is lightly raced and could still find the necessary improvement in him to win this despite a rise in the weights.

I think Famous Kid in the 2.20 at York holds every chance, a shade unlucky in running at Ascot last time out (would have finished closer) the extra 2 furlongs here will definitely suit and I fancy him to turn the tables on Astronerus who finished ahead of him that day. I am however also going to back Astronerus as I think the Ascot race was a really strong contest and will throw up a lot of winners hopefully with one of these two.

The Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and I have got to back my old favourite Chil The Kite here, unlucky at Ascot last time out when I put him up as one of my selections, he got no sort of run and wasn’t beaten that far in a hot race! He runs off the same mark as last time here and I don’t think the drop back to 7 furlongs will be an inconvenience although like any hold up horse he will need a bit of luck in running.
The other horse I am going to put up is Heavens Guest who loves it here at Newmarket winning 2 from 2 and also gets a top system rating from me. I make that his market price should be around the 9/1 so I am more than happy with the 14/1 that I got this morning and which is still generally available.

The final race of interest for me today is the John Smiths Cup at York where I like the chances of Ajman Bridge who is another Like Famous Kid and Astonerus mentioned earlier who come out of the hot Duke of Edinburgh at Ascot. I fully expect him to reverse placings on better terms with his conqueror Arab Dawn and the drop back in trip will not inconvenience. He has become a bit of a bridesmaid but deserves a change in fortune and today could be the day.

10/1 which is available as I write this is a bit better than I was looking for so fingers crossed.

The other selection in the race is Sennockian Star who is officially 2lb well in here and is running well at present. Second in a listed event at Ascot last time out behind Mahsoob (who didn’t frank the form this week) was a fair effort and previous to that he was an easy winner at Chester when on a lenient mark.

There is still a little bit to have from his current mark and the good system rating that he gets make him a serious contender in my book.

2.10 Ascot Barnet Fair – 1 point each way @ 10/1
2.10 Ascot Double Up – 1 point each way @ 8/1
2.20 York Famous Kid – 1 point win @ 9/2
2.20 York Astronerus – 1 point win @ 6/1
3.10 Newmarket Chil The Kite- 1 point each way @ 9/1
3.10 Newmarket Heavens Guest – 1 point each way @ 14/1
3.25 York Ajman Bridge – 1 point each way @ 10/1
3.25 York Sennockian Star – 1 point each way @ 12/1


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