This is a huge race with a £1 million pounds in prize money! As you would expect it is going to be a tough race for all the runners involved and those runners are amongst the best.
It is a 10 runner race and they will be competing over 1 mile and 4 furlongs. Of the 10 runners there are two who have not raced in the UK before and so I do not have enough data to make an accurate assessment on them. These two runners are Danedream and Deep Brilliante. I will be using the market to make a decision on these two runners closer to the race off time, if any look to be coming towards the top end of the market then I will include them as a selection.
I am going to be basing this analysis on a going condition of soft, obviously if this changes dramatically then you should be very wary of any selections here. I will start my analysis based on very similar race conditions to this race. Then slowly, I will widen my conditions to look at other races that are not quite so similar.
What does this mean?
It means that initially I am going to be narrowing the field on specific conditions but then runners may be brought back in as contenders when we look at races that are not so closely matched on conditions, but point to the horse being able to perform.
It is interesting to note that only two runners have raced over a similar distance on Soft going. These are Brown Panther and Robin Hood. Brown Panther has a slight edge have raced twice recently and shown improvement but, Robin Hood still has all the potential to be up there with him.
However if we widen our criteria to look at races over similar goings, Sea Moon had a superb performance on the 17th August last year at York. If he can repeat this then he will be a serious threat. He has also won 71% of all his races and ran a good race only 27 days ago showing that he is in strong form. This would be one to ignore at your peril.
Dunaden, while not quite as strong as Sea Moon, performed well over good to soft going on the 5th May. My main concern here is that he has yet to win a race and while it is possible this could be the race he wins, I do not like placing my money on an un-proven horse if I can help it. With so many good runners in this race, that rules him out.
Masked Marvel looks to be of a similar leve to Robin Hood over these conditions. The biggest difference is that he has not had a good race for nearly a year. His last good performance was at Doncaster on the 10th September 2011. While the potential is there, he would have to come back to good form and then improve! I think this is unlikely and will be removing him as a contender.
St Nicholas Abbey and Nathaniel, while coming 3rd and winning their race over similar conditions respectively, have produced figures that would not be competitive in this race. Initially these runners are also removed.
Currently this leaves us with our strongest runner being Sea Moon with Robin Hood and Brown Panther as potential outsiders. However I am going to increase the distances of previous races and feel that good performances over distances of between 1 mile 2 furlongs and 1m 6 furlongs with runners of this quality could indicate which runners are going to do well.
This brings Nathaniel and St Nicholas Abbey into a different light, as both have had good races over a shorter distance. But this does bring up the concern, with such poor races over the same distance as today, if they can reproduce this at todays distance. They are currently the 2nd and 3rd favourites at the time of writing this review, but I do not think I would want to place my money on them when there is the potential for them to fail so dramatically. I could be wishing that I didn’t say this but I am going to be removing these two runners from final contenders list.
For me the strongest horse in this race looks to be Sea Moon and that is where my money will be going. However Brown Panther looks to have some serious potential and at current odds of 24/1 is definitely worth considering as an each-way or place bet. Don’t forget that if either of the two runners Danedream or Deep Brilliante find there way into the top of the betting, I would be looking to include them in dutch bet with Sea Moon as well.
Please let me know who you think will win by leaving a comment below.
I have checked the latest going and had recent reports from people at the track saying that the going is now looking Good and the reports coming back are that this is accurate.
Even with this news I will still be following my initial analysis of Sea Moon and Brown Panther as an ew. Of Nathaniel and St. Nicholas Abbey, St. Nicholas Abbey has shown such good improvement that I would prefer him. Both are potentially going to perform very well but my preference is still for Sea Moon.