Lucky 7 Naps is a tipster service provided by a chap called Michael (not our own Race Advisor, Michael) and is available through Bet Kudos.
Here’s the link to the webpage advertising this service
Michael claims an average of 50 points profit per week since August 2012. His tips have been proofed by Bet Kudos since Feb 2014 and up to Aug 2014 produced a profit of 1,487 points which roughly averages to 53 points a week.
This is a pretty mouth-watering profit, although from the above you can easily see that a large proportion of this profit (44%) was achieved in August 2014 alone. The purpose of this review is to see how the tipping service has fared since then.
Michael concentrates on races with 7 or less runners, which is an interesting strategy in that it clearly increases the chance of finding winners, compared to races with larger fields. His tips are purely back to win bets and are available online in the members’ area and by email to subscribers. Weekly, 28-day and 90-day subscriptions are available for £34.20, £79.20, & £160.20 (all including vat)
From the results published by Bet Kudos for Lucky 7 Naps, it looks like the success has continued since the sales copy was written last year.
Here at RaceAdvisor.co.uk we have been monitoring results since the 1st Feb 2014.
There have been 4,991 bets with 1,229 winning selections giving a strike rate of 25%. The Lucky 7 Naps advice includes advised stakes and advised odds. If you place your bets quickly upon receiving the tips, you can probably get the Advised Odds. The advised stakes are usually £5 but sometimes the advice has been to only stake £3. Sometimes more than one selection per race is advised.
However, at SP, the results have not been good:
So should we reject Lucky 7 Naps as a tipster to follow? By looking at results using Betfair SP, the Advised Odds and Bookie odds we can see that there is a significant difference from simple SP results.
Here’s an expanded record of results using SP, Betfair SP, Advised Odds and Bookie Best Odds Guaranteed. All profits and losses are rounded to the nearest pound.
|SP||Betfair SP||Advised Odds||BOG|
|Flat Stakes £1||-£414||-8%||-£116||-2%||£1,036||21%||£1,186||25%|
Waiting towards the off time, it is clear that the odds reduce, on average, giving an overall loss at SP.
But if bets are placed when the advice is published, a clear profit can be made either by taking the Advised Odds or those same odds from a BOG bookmaker.
Interestingly most of Michael’s advised stakes are £5 and we can see a slightly better profit is obtainable by placing all bets at flat £5 stakes as opposed to his advised stakes:
|SP||Betfair SP||Advised Odds||BOG|
|Flat Stakes £5||-£2,071||-8%||-£582||-2%||£5,181||21%||£5,928||25%|
So the trick with these tips is to get a back bet on as quickly as possible after receiving the tips.
Taking the BOG results, I have analysed that there is a 25% strike rate. At those odds the break-even strike rate required is 20%. So therein lies the flat stake profit margin. The Bookmaker Best Odds Guaranteed average odds of the selections are 7.25, which is quite high, so Michael clearly doesn’t advise short-priced selections in these seven-horse races. The average odds of the winners are 4.99. The longest sequence of winners was 5 and the longest losing run was 27 (in Oct 2014) so patience is required to get through a losing run like that.
I can recommend Lucky 7 Naps, and would rate the service as “good”, but would advise testing for a while, to make sure you can get close to the Advised Odds on the selections as you must get these to make a profit from this service.