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Micro-Angle – Horses To Follow

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Autumn National Hunt Horses

Following on from Blue Kascade, Thomas Brown and Tenor Nivernais in previous weeks I have another horse who seems at his best in the early part of the season. This week it’s the Oliver Sherwood trained chaser Milgen Bay.

Milgen Bay – Oliver Sherwood

The 11- year-old has a career record of –

9 wins from 50 runs

Strike Rate 18%

SP Profit -9.08

21 placed

Place Strike Rate 42%

but he does seem to have a bit of a preference for October & November. In those two months, he had

5 wins from 14 runs

Strike Rate 36%

SP Profit +14.2

9 placed

Place Strike Rate 64%

He has tended to need his seasonal reappearance but his record having had at least 1 run in the past 90 days is –

5 wins from 10 runs

Strike Rate 50%

SP Profit +18.2

7 placed

Place Strike Rate 70%

and it’s worth noting all those wins have come in single digit fields. He starts the season on a 7lb lower mark than for his last win at Towcester in November 2016. I am sure his trainer will find another winning opportunity for the gelding in the next couple of months.

Identity Thief – Henry De Bromhead

The Henry De Bromhead trained the seven-year-old was just below the best over hurdles, he won his first two starts over fences last season and was expected to become a top-class novice chaser but his form nosedived in the latter part of the season. All six of his career wins have come between October to December with

6 wins from 8 runs

Strike Rate 75%

SP Profit +33.21

and indeed he is

5 wins from 5 runs

Strike Rate 100%

SP Profit +33.46

in October & November and he has won first time up in the last three season. His record in the second half of the season is 0 wins from 9 runs 3 placed. He looks one to back on his seasonal reappearance and one to avoid later in the season.

Until next time be lucky.

John

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John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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