Friday see’s the start of two tremendous day horse racing at Newbury which culminates in the first running of the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase which is effectively the old Hennessey Gold Cup but with a new sponsor.
Plenty to get through this week and lots for stats fans to digest, so let’s crack on. So what can you expect in this weeks article?
• This week I am looking at two trainers whose runners need monitoring in the month of December;
• I have another profile horse for you who is unexposed in handicap chases when racing on soft or heavy ground
• I will be taking a look at jockey & trainer partnership that are tearing it up over the Irish Sea and a jockey whose record at Ludlow is exceptional;
• Finally, I have a trends preview of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase and trainer stat for the Newbury meeting.
I have a portfolio of four trainers whose runners I will be backing in December when they get their right conditions and I am sharing two of them with you today.
Ben Pauling – The trainer has his horse going exceptionally well at the time of writing which bodes well for the start of the new month.
Since 2014 he has had –
22 winners from 81 runners
Strike Rate 27%
SP Profit +84.91
Exp/Wins 15.37 (profit to BSP +191.09)
Place Strike Rate 38%
in the month of December. The profit he achieved is helped by a 40/1 winner but a 27% win strike rate is plenty good enough.
That strike rate can be improved by concentrating on his runners who had 0 to 1 runs in the previous 90 days and had finished in the first five on their last start.
16 winners from 38 runners
Strike Rate 42%
SP Profit +54.03
Exp/Wins 9.28 (profit to BSP +61.23)
Place Strike Rate 50%
or you could just concentrate on those runners going left-handed –
13 winners from 23 runners
Strike Rate 57%
SP Profit +57.36
Exp/Wins 5.12 (profit to BSP+64.22)
Place Strike Rate 65%
The second December trainer is also National Hunt one but this time focusing on his runners in handicap races.
Graeme McPherson – Whose had –
9 winners from 46 runners
Strike Rate 20%
SP Profit +31.25
Exp/Wins 5.54 (profit to BSP +40.89)
Place Strike Rate 43%
in the month of the past three seasons.
If we look at his runners racing on soft or heavy ground and racing in Class 4 or 5 company, has produced the following results:
8 winners from 19 runners
Strike Rate 42%
SP Profit +49.25
Exp/Wins 2.74 (profit to BSP +57.38)
Place Strike Rate 68%
Although he is 0 wins from 10 runners 2 placed in Class 3 or better handicaps I wouldn’t rule out his runners in the better handicaps as he has a couple of promising horses who can win at that level.
There you have a couple of trainers who hopefully will provide some nice profits in December.