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Micro-Angles – Trainers – Handicaps

Hi all,

This weekend we have the two day Cheltenham’s International Meeting which starts on Friday and features the latest running of the Caspian Caviar Gold on Saturday. Once again I have plenty to get through and, I like last week, I will start by identifying some trainer track stats to note for the weekend’s action, before looking at some of the key trends for two of the big handicaps at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Paul Nicholls is –

4 winners from 8 runners

Strike Rate 50%

SP Profit +27.25

A/E 3.57

in handicap chases with runners who had at least two runs in the last 90 days.

Venetia Williams is

3 winners from 6 runners

Strike Rate 50%

SP Profit +37

A/E 4.35

5 placed

Place Strike Rate 83%

with runners in handicap chases that had finished in the first two on their last start.

Jonjo O’Neill has had

4 winners from 10 runners

Strike Rate 40%

SP Profit +47.5

A/E 3.67

6 placed

Place Strike rate 60%

in handicaps at the meeting. All four winners were racing 21 to 30 days since their last run.

Other Weekend Trainer Track Stats:

We know that trainers are ‘creatures of habit’ and they don’t just target certain tracks but also certain meetings. With that in mind here are a few notable trainer records from the weekend’s corresponding meetings at Doncaster & Bangor since 2014.

Bangor – All Races

Henry Daly – 3 wins from 6 runs 50% +23 4 placed 67%
Warren Greatrex – 3 wins from 6 runs 50% +5.3 4 placed 67%
Alan King – 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +5 4 placed 50%

Doncaster – All Races

Paul Nicholls –5 winners from 13 runners 38% +4.08 6 placed 46%
Alan King – 7 winners from 25 runners 28% +9.08 13 placed 52%
Emma Lavelle -4 winners from 9 runners 44% +6.75 5 placed 56%
Ben Pauling – 2 winners from 7 runners 29% +13.5 4 placed 57%

All Alan King’s winners at the meeting were having their first run at Doncaster – 7 winners from 20 runners 35% +14.08 A/E 1.72 11 placed 55% and if you ignore his runners in handicap hurdles at the meeting he has had – 7 winners from 15 runners 47% +19.08 A/E 2.16 9 placed 60%

All Paul Nicholls’ winners shared one thing they were racing between 21 & 45 days since their last run – 5 winners from 6 runners 83% +11.08 A/E 2.38 5 placed 83%, all five winners had also finished in the first four on their last start.

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John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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