Following on from previous articles, I have got some more micro angles and horses that have traditionally done well in the first few months of the winter jumps season. But like last week I will start by looking at two jockeys on all-weather who seem to excel at a certain track and distance. For the purpose of this research, I have looked at handicap races only and focused on the jockey’s records during the winter months from November to March.
Luke Morris at Kempton
Champion all-weather jockey Luke Morris has had 33 winners from 326 rides 10% -121.94 A/E 0.74 108 places 33% at Kempton since 2014. But if you add a couple logical filters such as price and distance then a different picture emerges.
Race Type: Handicaps only
Race Distance 1m 3f to 1m 4f only
Odds SP: 16/1 & under
Since 2014 he’s had-
15 winners from 59 runners
Strike Rate 25%
SP Profit +31.98
A/E 1.44 (profit to Betfair SP +43.33)
Place Strike Rate 53%
Pat Cosgrave at Kempton
The jockey tends to spend his winters in Dubai but he can usually be relied on to have a have a few winners on the all-weather before the turn of the year. Since 2014 his overall record in Kempton handicaps is 14 winners from 91 runners 15% +48 (profit to Betfair SP +105.46) 27 placed 30%. But if you look at his record in such races over a mile he has had-
8 winners from 25 runners
Strike Rate 32%
SP Profit +66
A/E 1.85 (profit to Betfair SP +113.44)
Place Strike Rate 56%.
Trainer Micro Angle – All Weather – The Quick Returnees
The horse returning within 7 days of their last run and going on to win and the trainers who excel at it, is an area worth further research and here I have a trainer who has the knack of getting horses to win that were running within 7 days of their last run. This is just one of the trainers who will be featuring in my next article for SmartSigger magazine where I will be looking at trainers and quick return horses in more detail.
Since the start of 2014 has shown that he is adept with quick returning horses on the all-weather, having had-
11 winners from 35 runners
SP Profit +25.16
A/E 1.57 (profit to Betfair SP +31)
Place Strike Rate 57%.
All the above runners ran in handicaps and it’s clear that any of his runners returning within 7 days of their last run need to be kept on side.