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Micro-Angles – Trainer Stats

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This week’s slice of stats and micro angles looks a group of trainers whose horses should be noted over the next week, it also contains another horse that is worth looking out for when it runs in the coming weeks. Jumps fans have plenty to look forward to this weekend with Cheltenham racing for the first time this season on Friday & Saturday and the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. I have a few stats from Cheltenham’s Showcase for you to the wet appetite for the winter game that is just starting to crank up now.

It was nice to see the Venetia Williams micro angle that I identified a couple of weeks bear fruit with its first runner as Vic De Touzaine won a handicap chase at Carlisle last Thursday at odds of 4/1. For those who didn’t get a chance to see the simple rules here is a refresher for you:

Trainer: Venetia Williams
Month: October & November
Race Type: Handicap Chase
Going: Soft or Heavy
Days Since Last Run (DSLR): 120+ days

Since 2014 the results for such qualifiers are as follows:

17 winners from 46 runners

Strike Rate 37%

SP Profit +73.27

A/E 2.23 (profit to BSP +86.74)

20 placed

Place Strike Rate 43%

As I mentioned before a very simple and profitable micro angle that you can even use your daily paper to find selections.

Trainers To Note In The Next 7 Days

Plenty of trainers have their horses ready to win races at this time of year but there are two that I am particularly interested in Roger Charlton and Harry Whittington.

Roger Charlton – Looking at the trainer’s record since 2014, with runners non-handicap races in the two week period (14 days) either side of today’s date (24/10/17) – He’s had –

7 winners from 65 runners

Strike Rate 11%

SP Loss -29.94

A/E 0.79

21 placed

Place Strike Rate 32%.

Nothing exciting there but at this time in the racing calendar, it’s his handicap runners to be interested in – 13 winners from 44 runners

Strike Rate 30%

+26.96

A/E 1.63 (profit to BSP +37.02)

25 placed

Place Strike Rate 57%.

His handicap runners go equally well on the all-weather and turf. Good stats with a decent sample size and Chi score of 3.86 which indicates that this is down to skill rather than luck. You could of course ‘slice n dice’ his runners a bit more.

If you were to concentrate on his runners that had at least 1 run in the past 90 days would have produced the following set of results –

13 winners from 38 runners

Strike Rate 34%

SP Profit +32.96

A/E 1.84 (profit to BSP +43.02)

24 placed

Place Strike Rate 63%

or you just concentrate on his runners racing in the same class as their last race –

10 winners from 26 runners

Strike Rate 38%

SP Profit +27.46

A/E 2 (profit to BSP + 36.75)

27 placed

Place Strike Rate 66%

Harry Whittington is another trainer who does well with his runners at this time of year. Since he started training in the two week period (14 days) either side of today’s date (24/10/17), he has had –

12 winners from 38 runners

Strike Rate 32 %

SP Profit+27.92

A/E 1.45 (profit to BSP +42.68)

17 placed

Place Strike Rate 45%

A good set of general stats for a trainer who seems to place his horses well.

If you want to concentrate on his runners who finished in the first five on their last start or were making their racecourse debut, he has had –

10 winners from 27 runners

Strike Rate 37%

SP Profit +34.85

A/E 1.62 (profit to BSP +49.57)

14 placed

Place Strike Rate 51%

You could also concentrate just on those runners who had yet to win for the trainer –

8 winners from 24 runners

Strike Rate 33%

SP Profit +28.32

A/E 1.83 (profit to BSP +41.73)

12 placed

Place Strike Rate 50%

Until next time, be lucky.

John

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John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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