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Micro-Angles – Trainers to Note in the Next 7 Days

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Hi all,

It’s a new month and another dose of eyecatcher horse racing stats and angles for you. This week I have a trainer whose horses are worth noting over the next week or so, a horse that has done well in November in the past two seasons over the jumps (which will be published, tomorrow) and I have some trainer’s stats from upcoming weekend’s action at Wetherby & Ascot (which will be published, Saturday morning).

Plenty of trainers have their horses in form and ready to win races at this time of year. I will start with Ben Pauling before moving onto Kim Bailey runners.

Ben Pauling – Since 2014 the trainer has had

13 runners from 50 runners

Strike Rate 26%

SP Profit +67.87

A/E 1.77 (profit to BSP +89.27)

20 placed

Place Strike Rate 40%

in all races in the two week period (14 days) either side of today’s date. The Chi score of 5.12 is an indication that this is down to skill by the trainer rather than luck and the Exp/Win figure of 7.34 means we have a decent sample size to work on. Backing all his runners blindly has been profitable but if you wanted to improve that win strike rate you can focus in on his runners racing up to a distance of 2m 5f which has produced the following set of stats:

12 winners from 37 runners

Strike Rate 32%

SP Profit +78.62

A/E 2.28 (profit to BSP +100.09)

17 placed

Place Strike Rate 46%

Trainer: Ben Pauling
Race Code: National Hunt
Race Type: All
Race Distance: 2m 5f or less

Kim Bailey has had

25 winners from 94 runners

Strike Rate 27%

SP Profit +38.8

A/E 1.74 (profit to BSP +51.85)

33 placed

Place Strike Rate 35%

in all races in the two week period (14 days) either side of today’s date since 2014. As with the previous trainer the Chi score of 9.26 is excellent and with the expected winners being 14.38 we have an excellent sample size with the trainer’s runners very much underestimated by the market over-performing by 74%. If you wanted to improve that win strike rate you could focus in on his runners in novice & handicap hurdles only which have produced the following set of results.

16 winners from 41 runners

Strike Rate 39%

SP Profit +50.3

A/E 2.27 (profit to BSP +64.38)

17 placed

Place Strike Rate 41%

Trainer: Ben Pauling
Race Code: National Hunt
Race Type: Novice & Handicap Hurdles only

I will be disappointed if both trainers don’t have a few winners in the next 7 days or so.

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John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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