Strategies

MINI BETTING SYSTEM #2: First Time Trainer Runners

Making +240 Units Profit With A 14% Edge

(Last Updated On: May 28, 2020)

After the popularity of our last mini betting system, we’re continuing this series with a new mini betting system each month.

You can see all the past mini betting systems here.


What Is A Mini Betting System?

Mini betting systems focus on hyper-specific areas of horse racing where there looks to be an edge.

There won’t be many selections a month, and some months there will be none if we’re focusing on a specific type of horse racing.

However, you can build up a portfolio of tens, or even hundreds, of these mini betting systems to generate a very generous profit.

But there are few things to remember…

  • You should double check horse’s ability to race under the current race conditions before placing a bet
  • While these mini betting systems work now, they won’t work forever. You should be constantly monitoring their performance and pausing them if they’re no longer performing as expected over the long-term
  • Mini betting systems are based around having a portfolio. You will need a number of mini betting systems to make a good profit

THE RULES

There are just four rules to finding selections using this mini betting system, and they are:

  1. Only consider horses that have odds no higher than 29/1
  2. Only consider horses that have NEVER HAD A RUN UNDER THEIR CURRENT TRAINER
  3. Only consider horses that are not Betfair favourites just before the race goes off
  4. Only consider the trainers Fergal O’Brien, M Appleby, B Ellison, G M Lyons, Olly Murphy, Charlie Appleby, Archie Watson, Noel Meade, M R Channon

Any horses that match these three criteria become a contender.


THE LOGIC

We always need to find the logic behind a mini betting system. The login in this mini betting system is based around trainers who specialise.

There are trainers who are very good at bringing a horse that’s new to them up to a high performance level for their first run with them. It’s a combination of picking the right horses to train, knowing how to get them ready, and the right races to target.

Using this approach we are looking to target trainers that specialise in horses new to them, in the first race they put them in, and before the market becomes aware of their potential.

That’s what we’re looking to take advantage of.


THE RESULTS

Since. 2016 these selections have had the following results..

SelectionsWinsStrike RateProfit / LossROIA/E
154327117.56894.8929.991.27

A profit of +894 units over four and a half years is around +198 units per year.

That’s with a 27% advantage, as shown by the A/E ratio.

But a single set of results over an extended period of time doesn’t tell us much, so here’s those results on a year-on-year basis.

YearSelectionsWinsStrike RateProfit/LossROIA/E
2020661319.754.0381.861.48
20194046716.58193.5547.911.16
20184297617.72252.7658.921.26
20173587119.83197.1155.061.44
20162864415.38197.4569.041.17

As you can see, there has been a profit every single year for the last four years, and there’s a profit so far in 2020.

The best year for profit was 2018, but it’s been fairly consistent. The A/E ratio has bounced around a little bit more, but never dropping lower than 1.16 gives the extra confidence.

On average over a year, there will be around one bet per day.

It’s important to note that the strike rate is 17.56%, which means there can be long losing streaks, but these can be countered by further analysis of the selections, or by using a different type of betting.

All except one year has produced a flat bet profit to place, and in one year it was just -0.46 units. Whilst we wouldn’t look to place bet only, this means there may be the possibility of using different bet types to win only, such as 80/20, or place saver bets to increase the strike rate alongside further analysis of the contenders.


IN SUMMARY

This mini betting system is designed to find horses that are running for the first time for the current trainer, and focusing only on those trainers who have a track record of targeting the right races for these horses.

We are not looking for horses that are the favourite in the market, because there is no advantage available in them for us to use.

Taking advantage of this can give us up to a 27% advantage, and makes nearly a 30% ROI on average.

Please let me know if you currently follow any of these trainers when they’re racing a horse for the first time, by leaving a comment below.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

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