Strategies

MINI BETTING SYSTEM #3: 10 Saturday Specialists

Targeting Saturday Handicap Races

(Last Updated On: June 18, 2020)

Every month we’re looking at a mini betting system which focus on a niche angle to find profits.

Over time these can build up into a portfolio of betting angles which you can use as part of your betting.

All form reading techniques can be applied to the contenders found by these betting systems. They can be used as a shortlisting technique.

This month’s mini betting system looks at trainers who specialise on Saturday racing.

You can see all the past mini betting systems here.


What Is A Mini Betting System?

Mini betting systems focus on hyper-specific areas of horse racing where there looks to be an edge.

There won’t be many selections a month, and some months there will be none if we’re focusing on a specific type of horse racing.

However, you can build up a portfolio of tens, or even hundreds, of these mini betting systems to generate a very generous profit.

But there are few things to remember…

  • You should double check horse’s ability to race under the current race conditions before placing a bet
  • While these mini betting systems work now, they won’t work forever. You should be constantly monitoring their performance and pausing them if they’re no longer performing as expected over the long-term
  • Mini betting systems are based around having a portfolio. You will need a number of mini betting systems to make a good profit

THE RULES

There are just four rules to finding selections using this mini betting system, and they are:

  1. Only consider horses with odds between 3.50 and 13.00
  2. Only consider handicap races
  3. Only consider horses that are not favourites just before the race goes off
  4. Only consider the trainers M Sheppard, A G Newcombe, N J Gifford, Eve Johnson Houghton, N W Alexander, N King, Harry Fry, P Bowen, J Mackle, C Wall

Any horses that match these three criteria becomes a contender.


THE LOGIC

We always need to find the logic behind a mini betting system. The logic in this mini betting system is based around trainers who target competitive handicap racing on Saturdays.

Saturday has a different type of racing than the rest of the week. Saturday racing needs to cater to the weekend bettor and families that enjoy spending a day at the race track. It’s usually more competitive for that reason, and we can use that to our advantage!

Using this approach we are looking to target trainers that are particularly strong at putting runners into competitive handicap races on a Saturday, and we’re going to take advantage of that knowledge.


THE RESULTS

Since 2015 these selections have had the following results..

SelectionWinsStrike RateProfit/LossROIA/E
82214717.88323.539.351.23

A profit of +323 units over five and a half years is around +58 units per year.

That’s with a 23% advantage, as shown by the A/E ratio.

But a single set of results over an extended period of time doesn’t tell us much, so here’s those results on a year-on-year basis.

YearSelectionWinsStrike RateProfit/LossROIA/E
20204082032.6781.671.55
20191652816.9752.2531.671.13
20181703017.6528.8216.961.13
20171793620.1189.3149.91.37
20161291813.9531.5324.441.06
20151392719.4288.9263.971.33

As you can see, there has been a profit every single year for the last five years, and there’s a profit so far in 2020 as well.

The best year for profit was 2015 and 2017. It bounces around a little bit, but stays with a consistent advantage.

On average over a year, there will be around one bet every three days.

It’s important to note that the strike rate is 17.88%, which means there can be long losing streaks.

However, these selections also make a strong profit in the place market on Betfair. Betting them to place increases the strike rate to nearly 40%.

And of course… whether betting to win or to place, you should also do further analysis of the selections to confirm that they can be competitive in the current race.

I would also expect 80/20 bets to work very well for these runners.


IN SUMMARY

This mini betting system is designed to find horses that are running for trainers who have proven to be very good at targeting competitive handicap races on Saturdays.

Taking advantage of this can give us up to a 23% advantage, and makes over a 39% ROI on average.

Please let me know if you currently follow any of these trainers when they’re racing a horse for the first time, by leaving a comment below.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

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