Every month we’re looking at a mini betting system which focus on a niche angle to find profits.
Over time these can build up into a portfolio of betting angles which you can use as part of your betting.
All form reading techniques can be applied to the contenders found by these betting systems. They can be used as a shortlisting technique.
This month’s mini betting system looks at trainers who specialise on Saturday racing.
What Is A Mini Betting System?
One of the main reasons why people steer clear of mini betting systems is the lack of wagers involved. The casual punters much prefer to have several bets a week, a process that results in several hundred a year. With a micro betting system, you could end up with fewer than 100 wagers per annum.
Rigid adherence is also essential because if you miss a winning bet, it could skew the results of the system far more than one with 100 wagers a month, for example. However, the process of micro betting can yield an immense ROI because it can provide a significant edge.
In general, the better-known a horse racing system, the more likely it is that you’ll lose value over time. The bookmakers tend to ‘catch on’ and price horses accordingly. You end up in a situation where the system still picks the same percentage of winners as before. Alas, with poorer pricing, you begin to lose money. Mini betting systems are less likely to fall prey to this process.
Another advantage is that you can potentially create dozens of them. When you combine six or seven such systems, you suddenly have enough wagers to keep you satisfied. There are caveats, of course, and we always point out the following when creating such systems:
When creating a mini betting system, it is always best to keep things as simple as possible. The more complicated a system is, the more likely it is to break down because you only need to lose one component.
In this instance, there are just three rules:
- Only consider horses ridden by the jockey, Nico De Boinville.
- Only consider selections he rides in hurdle races in the UK.
- Only consider horses he rides in Non-Handicap events.
Whenever you see a De Boinville horse in a non-handicap hurdle race, it is time to consider its credentials strongly.
A betting system without logic is one that is unlikely to stand the test of time. In this instance, we know that Nico De Boinville is one of the best jockeys around. As such, he tends to have his pick of horses and seldom takes charge of a no-hoper. Indeed, in this system, De Boinville rides a horse in the top 5 of the betting over 80% of the time.
Given that a considerable percentage of winners come from the five runners at the head of the market, it is hardly a surprise that De Boinville rides his fair share of winners. In non-handicap races, the higher quality horses are NOT required to carry extra weight. Generally, horses ridden by top jockeys are overbet, which means you don’t get value.
However, it isn’t the case with this mini betting system, so we DO get value for money at the time of writing. As it is a microsystem, it has seemingly flown beneath the radar of bookmakers.
Since 2016, this system has provided the following results:
|Selections||Wins||Strike Rate||Profit/Loss||ROI (BF)||A/E|
You would have earned a profit of +173 units over four and a half years. This equates to around 38 units a year. At £10 stakes, you would win £380 in a year. Obviously, compounding stakes would likely result in a more significant yield overall. One of the critical aspects of this system is the 9% edge you have. You can see this in the A/E ratio.
Another essential thing to consider is the consistency of any system. As you’ll see below, this one has produced a profit in each of the last five years, including 2020, so far.
|Year||Selections||Wins||Strike Rate||Profit/Loss||ROI (BF)||A/E|
There was some concern as 2019 was a significant downturn compared to the previous three years. However, the performance has improved so far in 2020. Although De Boinville tends to ride horses in the top five of the betting market, he has also ridden a handful of outsider winners, which help bump up the ROI.
When he teams up with Nicky Henderson as the trainer, the win rate, ROI, and A/E all fall only slightly. This is important because Henderson trains almost 70% of the horses in this system!
In horse racing terms, a strike rate of 36% is considered ‘reasonable,’ yet you can still expect to encounter some lengthy losing streaks. It is vital to stay the course and not become disillusioned after such a spell. Overall, the longest losing streak using this system is 15. In total, there have been four occasions where this mini betting system lost 10+ times in a row.
On the other side of the coin, the longest winning streak is six. There have also been four occasions where this system picked four consecutive winners.
This mini betting system takes advantage of the quality of Nico De Boinville as a jockey. It focuses on his performance in UK National Hunt Non-Handicap Hurdle races. Even though he is well-known and respected in the industry, his rides for this system are not yet overbet. As a result, it provides an edge of 9% and an ROI of over 35% since 2016.
It is a system specifically for the National Hunt season, so the fact you can get up to 100 bets in a year is exceptionally reasonable. Combine it with a couple of other micro betting systems, and you could enjoy a lucrative spell.
Are you already following Nico De Boinville runners? Let me know by leaving a comment below.
If you’d like to get the horses for every mini-system in Patrick’s Portfolio found and sent to you each day, you can register at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/patricksportfolio