Strategies

MINI BETTING SYSTEM #4: Nico De Boinville Winners

(Last Updated On: July 16, 2020)

Every month we’re looking at a mini betting system which focus on a niche angle to find profits.

Over time these can build up into a portfolio of betting angles which you can use as part of your betting.

All form reading techniques can be applied to the contenders found by these betting systems. They can be used as a shortlisting technique.

This month’s mini betting system looks at trainers who specialise on Saturday racing.

You can see all the past mini betting systems here.


What Is A Mini Betting System?

One of the main reasons why people steer clear of mini betting systems is the lack of wagers involved. The casual punters much prefer to have several bets a week, a process that results in several hundred a year. With a micro betting system, you could end up with fewer than 100 wagers per annum.

Rigid adherence is also essential because if you miss a winning bet, it could skew the results of the system far more than one with 100 wagers a month, for example. However, the process of micro betting can yield an immense ROI because it can provide a significant edge.

In general, the better-known a horse racing system, the more likely it is that you’ll lose value over time. The bookmakers tend to ‘catch on’ and price horses accordingly. You end up in a situation where the system still picks the same percentage of winners as before. Alas, with poorer pricing, you begin to lose money. Mini betting systems are less likely to fall prey to this process.

Another advantage is that you can potentially create dozens of them. When you combine six or seven such systems, you suddenly have enough wagers to keep you satisfied. There are caveats, of course, and we always point out the following when creating such systems:


The Rules

When creating a mini betting system, it is always best to keep things as simple as possible. The more complicated a system is, the more likely it is to break down because you only need to lose one component.

In this instance, there are just three rules:

  1. Only consider horses ridden by the jockey, Nico De Boinville.
  2. Only consider selections he rides in hurdle races in the UK.
  3. Only consider horses he rides in Non-Handicap events.

Whenever you see a De Boinville horse in a non-handicap hurdle race, it is time to consider its credentials strongly.


The Logic

A betting system without logic is one that is unlikely to stand the test of time. In this instance, we know that Nico De Boinville is one of the best jockeys around. As such, he tends to have his pick of horses and seldom takes charge of a no-hoper. Indeed, in this system, De Boinville rides a horse in the top 5 of the betting over 80% of the time.

Given that a considerable percentage of winners come from the five runners at the head of the market, it is hardly a surprise that De Boinville rides his fair share of winners. In non-handicap races, the higher quality horses are NOT required to carry extra weight. Generally, horses ridden by top jockeys are overbet, which means you don’t get value.

However, it isn’t the case with this mini betting system, so we DO get value for money at the time of writing. As it is a microsystem, it has seemingly flown beneath the radar of bookmakers.


The Results

Since 2016, this system has provided the following results:

SelectionsWinsStrike RateProfit/LossROI (BF)A/E
48914830.27%172.935.36%1.09

You would have earned a profit of +173 units over four and a half years. This equates to around 38 units a year. At £10 stakes, you would win £380 in a year. Obviously, compounding stakes would likely result in a more significant yield overall. One of the critical aspects of this system is the 9% edge you have. You can see this in the A/E ratio.

Another essential thing to consider is the consistency of any system. As you’ll see below, this one has produced a profit in each of the last five years, including 2020, so far.

YearSelectionsWinsStrike RateProfit/LossROI (BF)A/E
2020471736.17%13.1327.94%1.13
20191413726.24%4.763.37%0.91
20181194033.61%47.0939.57%1.12
20171043432.69%59.8957.59%1.26
2016782025.64%48.0361.58%1.12

There was some concern as 2019 was a significant downturn compared to the previous three years. However, the performance has improved so far in 2020. Although De Boinville tends to ride horses in the top five of the betting market, he has also ridden a handful of outsider winners, which help bump up the ROI.

When he teams up with Nicky Henderson as the trainer, the win rate, ROI, and A/E all fall only slightly. This is important because Henderson trains almost 70% of the horses in this system!

In horse racing terms, a strike rate of 36% is considered ‘reasonable,’ yet you can still expect to encounter some lengthy losing streaks. It is vital to stay the course and not become disillusioned after such a spell. Overall, the longest losing streak using this system is 15. In total, there have been four occasions where this mini betting system lost 10+ times in a row.

On the other side of the coin, the longest winning streak is six. There have also been four occasions where this system picked four consecutive winners.

In Summary

This mini betting system takes advantage of the quality of Nico De Boinville as a jockey. It focuses on his performance in UK National Hunt Non-Handicap Hurdle races. Even though he is well-known and respected in the industry, his rides for this system are not yet overbet. As a result, it provides an edge of 9% and an ROI of over 35% since 2016.

It is a system specifically for the National Hunt season, so the fact you can get up to 100 bets in a year is exceptionally reasonable. Combine it with a couple of other micro betting systems, and you could enjoy a lucrative spell.

Are you already following Nico De Boinville runners? Let me know by leaving a comment below.

Patrick Lynch

Patrick graduated from the National University of Ireland, Galway with an MA in Literature and Publishing but decided he would rather have the freedom of a freelance writer than be stuck in a publishing house all day. He has enjoyed this freedom since 2009 and has written thousands of articles on a variety of topics but sports betting is his passion. While his specialty is finding mismatches in obscure football leagues, he also likes to use his research skills to provide punters with detailed winning strategies in horse racing. You can check out his personal blog on www.lynchthewriter.com or Twitter @pl1982 where he writes content to help small businesses achieve success.

5 Comments

  1. You sent me an email telling where I could learn about your latest mini systen “NICO DEBONIVILLE” mini system No. 4 each timei cloicked i=on your links i got the same thing about what mini systems are, but nothing bout the system itself or the othe systems for that matter

  2. I would be concerned that the AE over the last 2 years is less than 1 and also the small sample size (although I suppose this would be an issue with all micro systems).

    1. Yup, small sample sizes will always be an issue with micro systems. The only way around this is to look at a portfolio as a whole. I make the A/E for 2019 and 2020 combined to be 1.003?

      1. Unfortunately, it is 0.97 Michael, but it is 1.12 so far in 2020. He is having a good year so far in general. Interesting to see if BCD racing has any impact at all.

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