Welcome to the latest instalment in Race Advisor’s mini betting series.
Every month we’re looking at a mini betting system which focus on a niche angle to find profits.
Over time these can build up into a portfolio of betting angles which you can use as part of your betting.
All form reading techniques can be applied to the contenders found by these betting systems. They can be used as a shortlisting technique.
This month’s mini betting system looks at trainers who specialise on Saturday racing.
Before proceeding, let’s quickly outline a few things to consider.
Although it is excellent if a system turns a profit for 5+ years, there’s no question that even three consecutive profitable years is noteworthy.
In horse racing, a system can lose its edge because the conditions change, or the bookmakers get wind of it, and the value is lost.
Your system could have the same percentage of winners but ceases to be profitable because the odds no longer represent value.
Some horse racing experts, such as Nick Mordin, believe that many systems retain their edge for no more than three years.
Always Apply Logic
When analysing the filters, you apply, ask yourself if eliminating or retaining a factor is logical.
For example, if you find that an angle is profitable in all races except Class 4 events, should you remove all Class 4 runs from consideration?
Logic dictates that you shouldn’t because it is difficult to figure out why only Class 4 races lead to a loss.
Focus on Sample Size
Instead of zoning in on ROI all the time, look at sample size first. Believe it or not, it is better to have 300 bets at an ROI of 8% than 70 with an ROI of 16%. The former is far likelier to provide a long-term edge.
Today, I am looking at trainers that provide a positive A/E on bets, and also have a reasonable win percentage. The following includes data from UK races from the beginning of 2018.
The Mini Betting System Rules
- Only focus on these three trainers: Tristan Davidson, Ruth Jefferson, and Jeremy Scott.
- Only choose horses with maximum SP odds of 19.00.
- Select horses in National Hunt Hurdle races only.
I specifically chose these trainers because of a combination of high A/E and a reasonable winning percentage.
The A/E value is a representation of whether or not you get an ‘edge.’ An A/E of 1.00 indicates that you neither have an edge, nor are you at a disadvantage.
Once you go above 1.00, you begin to get an edge on the market. At this point, you are in value betting territory. In general, you can expect a system or angle with a long-term A/E of over 1.00 to turn a profit. The combination of these three trainers provides an edge of 27% since the start of 2018. Jefferson has the lowest A/E figure of 1.14, Scott’s is 1.24, while Davidson offers 1.61.
In horse racing, you will find trainers, jockeys, and various systems with win percentages in the 10-15% range. You may profit eventually, but the lower the win rate, the longer the expected losing streaks. All three trainers have a win rate of over 21%.
Since 2018, the above criteria would have yielded the following results:
|Selections||Wins||Strike Rate||P/L Units (BF)||ROI (BF)||A/E|
As you can see, you get a win rate of almost 24% and an A/E of 1.27. The one downside is the relative lack of bets. However, it is a microsystem that you can add to others to create a nice ‘portfolio.’ Perhaps add it to a lower risk system with a higher strike rate? Michael would generally recommend something like place betting.
Here is a year by year breakdown:
|Year||Selections||Wins||Strike Rate||P/L Units (BF)||ROI (BF)||A/E|
The pleasing thing is that the A/E figure remains high for these three trainers. As long as this remains the case, we will hopefully continue to see profits.
By choosing just three trainers in UK National Hunt Hurdles races at odds of 19.00 or less, you could generate a profit of almost 34%. It seems as if the bookmakers continue to overprice the runners of these trainers. It is anyone’s guess how long this scenario lasts. Given the fact that they aren’t especially famous or prolific trainers, they may fly under the radar for a while yet.