Welcome back to the latest instalment of Race Advisor mini betting systems. As Michael may have mentioned before, the goal is to help you create a portfolio of systems with a relatively small number of bets. When you combine them all, you will have enough wagers to keep you satisfied.
The number of bets you want depends on your bankroll. Your bankroll, in turn, depends on your risk appetite. If you want systems with a higher percentage of wins, such as Michael’s list of place betting options, you can get by with a relatively small bankroll. If you back systems with a win rate below 30%, you need a large bankroll, and a mindset that ‘accepts’ large losing runs as part and parcel of the process.
Today, I have decided to try something a little different relating to headgear on horses, specifically, hoods.
The Mini Betting System Rules
- Look for horses wearing a hood
- Only consider the following trainers:
- Charlie Appleby
- Peter Bowen
- Tom Clover
- John Gosden
- Saeed Bin Suroor
- Nigel Twiston Davies
- Archie Watson
At one time there was no need for a trainer to declare whether a horse was wearing headgear. These days, this information is readily available online.
There are different types of gear, including Blinkers, Visors, Cheekpieces, Hoods, and Tongue Ties.
Trainers get their horses to wear hoods to help muffle sound. They may discover that a horse is troubled by noise and is unable to run its best race. In general, a hood potentially works for horses that are nervous of noises and crowds. They are padded around the ears, a process that can restrict external sounds.
Also, many horses wear hoods during adverse weather for comfort. Many punters are now aware of possible angles relating to blinkers, but as this microsystem shows, it isn’t necessarily the case with hoods.
A difficult question to answer is why particular trainers have such a good record with horses wearing a hood. A reason why adding headgear does NOT provide success is because many trainers do it when a horse is in a bad run of form. It is often a ‘last resort.’ There is evidence that the trainers in this guide don’t necessarily wait for this situation to unfold. Perhaps they are more perceptive when it comes to knowing the ‘right’ time to take action.
Since 2016, this system has produced the following results:
|Selections||Wins||Strike Rate||P/L (BF)||ROI (BF)||A/E|
It is a system that ticks a lot of boxes. Punters who backed all 630 horses would have enjoyed a profit of over 604 units across four and a half years. This would be the equivalent of 140 units per annum, or £1,400 if you used £10 stakes. The strike rate is rather high when you consider the odds involved, and the 28% value edge is another magnificent sight.
Here is a year-on-year breakdown:
|Year||Selections||Wins||Strike Rate||P/L (BF)||ROI (BF)||A/E|
What you may notice is the reduced strike rate in 2020. Indeed, it has been lower since the restrictions on crowds at races. The A/E figure still indicates a significant edge. Therefore, you have to decide whether it is worth waiting for crowds to return to racing.
After all, hoods block out noise and could help an anxious horse feel more comfortable. Perhaps these trainers don’t think it necessary at present with horses they would typically apply the hood to?
There are a couple of dozen trainers that provide a high ROI with horses wearing hoods. However, the seven I have chosen all have a win rate of at over 22%. All the rest had strike rates below 20%. For the record, Saeed Bin Suroor has the best overall record with a win rate of almost 39%! Appleby is next with 33%.
You can check other trainers to see their records with hoods if you are okay with a lower strike rate. One final plus point is that this system doesn’t solely rely on high-priced winners. If you focus on horses at SP odds of 13.00 or less, your ROI is still high at almost 49%, and the strike rate increases to 33%.
This is a straightforward system that involves the ability of seven trainers to get the best out of horses wearing hoods. They have performed well consistently for the past five years. It is, however, the type of system where you could make the mistake of back fitting to ensure it provides profitable historical results.
It may be a case of waiting until crowds return, as the lack of noise could reduce this system’s efficacy. At present, we have a relatively small sample size of no crowds at racing to choose from, so it is too early to conclude.