Strategies

MINI BETTING SYSTEM #7: Place Betting – Ideal for an Improved Betting ‘Psychology’

(Last Updated On: December 29, 2020)

Michael is a huge proponent of high strike rate systems and with good reason. They don’t provide the sexy, eye-catching 25/1 wins. What they do is keep your betting balance ticking over. When you win a high percentage of your bets, you feel good about yourself. Also, your bank balance seldom takes a massive hit.

I’m assuming that readers are in it for the long haul. Across any 1,000-bet sample, a 20% strike rate system can expect to see a losing streak of 31+ at some point. In contrast, systems with a 70%-win rate have a max losing streak of 6. You could even benefit from a 19-bet winning run. If you believe in compounding your bankroll, this could yield a handsome profit over time. 

In this month’s mini-system, I will focus on trainers with excellent ‘place’ records at selected tracks. Each of them has a stellar record going back to 2016. Of course, great past performance is no guarantee of future success. However, you have a fighting chance of making a profit with this strategy.

Without further ado, let’s get into it!

You can see all the past mini betting systems here.


The Mini Betting System Rules

  1. Only use trainers with a 70+% strike rate for placing in a National Hunt Race.
  2. Only back their horse when it is the favourite. 
  3. Focus on trainers at a specific course.
  4. Use trainers with at least 15 NH runs on the track since 2016. 

The Logic

Trainers have preferred courses. There are numerous reasons for this. In some cases, it is the trainer’s ‘home’ course, so they know its intricacies. In others, the trainer tends to have his horses in their best shape when certain tracks have many events. In any case, we want to find trainers who excel at specific courses.

The high strike rate is to keep losing rates low. We want a sample size of at least 15 runners per trainer. This ensures that you are not banking on the occasional freak result. By looking at the top of the market, you immediately zone in on the strongest runners. Bear in mind that it isn’t easy to create systems based on odds. Therefore, you should look at the ‘betting forecast’ for guidance.


The Results

I decided to include a total of five trainers. Feel free to try and find more in all codes. The following is their place records at selected tracks in all NH types since the beginning of 2016.

TrainerCourseBetsPlace Wins (BF)Strike RateP/L (BF)ROI BF PlaceA/E
N. HendersonAintree201575%3.2816.4%1.25
Harry Skelton Ayr151280%4.4829.87%1.25
Paul NichollsMusselburgh181482.35%2.0511.38%1.32
Dan McCainCartmel251976%4.5618.24%1.21
Sue SmithSedgefield252184%6.3625.44%0.97

The combination of the five trainers provides us with the following results:

BetsPlace Wins (BF)Strike RateP/L (BF)ROI B/F
1038178.64%20.7320.12%

There are only 103 possible bets over five years. However, you could find perhaps 50+ trainers across all codes. This could bring it up to 1,000 bets, which equates to 200 per year. The strike rate of over 70% should ensure that losing runs are kept to a minimum. 


In Summary

I recognise that the above is not everyone’s cup of tea. If you want systems with more bets and an even higher ROI, you can find them on Race Advisor. However, most of them have relatively low strike rates. 

Ideally, every bettor will have several betting strategies in their portfolio. It is best if you include at least a couple of high strike rate, relatively low risks ones. The ROI may not always excite you, but slow and steady unquestionably wins the race.

The system we have outlined today should help punters with lower risk tolerance. As always, I recommend analysing the quality of the horses in question rather than blindly backing them. A few minutes of research could bring your strike rate above 80%.

If you’d like to get the horses for every mini-system in Patrick’s Portfolio found and sent to you each day, you can register at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/patricksportfolio

Patrick Lynch

Patrick graduated from the National University of Ireland, Galway with an MA in Literature and Publishing but decided he would rather have the freedom of a freelance writer than be stuck in a publishing house all day. He has enjoyed this freedom since 2009 and has written thousands of articles on a variety of topics but sports betting is his passion. While his specialty is finding mismatches in obscure football leagues, he also likes to use his research skills to provide punters with detailed winning strategies in horse racing. You can check out his personal blog on www.lynchthewriter.com or Twitter @pl1982 where he writes content to help small businesses achieve success.

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