Advice

Newmarket (July) 2012 – Day 3

(Last Updated On: July 13, 2012)

After a a bad start to the festival we managed to turn it around yesterday and make a superb profit. In fact we only didn’t have a winning race once!

We placed 8 units in stakes and make 6.5 units profit. A return of 82%! Let’s hope that we can continue this for the final meeting of the festival.

1:40 32Red Casino Handicap 1m

We start the final day at Newmarket with a competitive race run over 1 mile. All of these runners have had a good race recently and so we cannot remove any quickly using that technique. Instead we will need to remove those who have performed significantly worse than others under similar conditions.

That removes Chapter Seven and Ocean Tempest. Fire Ship, Compton and Andalieb can also be removed as they are likely not to have the class to win this race.

Of the rest I am going to remove Jakes Destiny who has not run on soft ground in the last year. That leaves us with Bronze Angel, Asatir, Sir John Hawkwood, Fluctuate and Ardmay as possible selections.

There is not much to choose between them. Without a doubt this race is best left alone but if I had to bet I would see if there was enough profit to be made across all 6 contenders as every one of them has a chance.

Selection: No bet.

2:10 32Red.com Superlative Stakes (Group 2) 7f

Another very competitive race where it is going to be hard to get a selection. We will start by removing Letstalkaboutmoney, Operation Chariot and Luhalf who have all performed over similar conditions but much worse than other runners. Ocean Applause saw a significant improvement over good to soft going on the 21st June, but it was over 5 furlongs and I would be concerned whether the performance could be repeated and even more so at 2 furlongs longer. For these reasons I shall also remove this runner.

The rest of the runners all have a chance in this race. Of these runners Olympic Glory looks to be the strongest having shown improvement over soft ground in the last 6 weeks to good figures.

Selection: Olympig Glory

2:40 32Red Bunbury Cup Handicap 7f

A race which is a bit less competitive comes along as the third of the day and allows us to remove runners which have not performed well recently. Doing this reduces the field to 6 runners. These runners are Atlantic Sport, Bronze Prince, Mawaakef, Seal Rock, Captain Bertie and Captain Ramius.

Next we remove the runners who have performed significantly worse than others over similar conditions to todays race. Of the remaining runners, the best are Atlantic Sport, who has shown a consistent improvement over similar conditions in the last 45 days and if this continues could be a serious threat.

Jamesie who just beat Atlantic Sport on the 22nd of June and if can replicate that performance stands a good chance of winning. Belgian Bill and Decent Fella were both beaten by Jamesie and Atlantic Sport on the 22nd June. Both were unable to quicken and it is likely that this will happen again.

This leaves me with Jamesie and Atlantic Sport as the final selections.

Selections: A dutch bet with Jamesie and Atlantic Sport. Also a place bet on both if the odds allow.

3:20 Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) 6f

The big race of the day, the July cup with a prize of £400,000. 15 declared runners and, as you would expect, a lot of high class runners competing.

Removing the horses who haven’t performed well in the last 6 months leaves us with 10 runners and I shall narrow these down further by removing the runners who have performed over similar conditions as this race but produced poor results.

This removes another 4 runners and leaves us with six potential contenders. Of these Ortensia has not raced over similar conditions and his previous performance indicates he would need to significantly improve in order to contend in this race. Sepoy is running for the first time in the UK and we will need to use the market odds to make a judgement on this runner nearer to race time.

Fire Lily, Mayson, The Cheka and Strong Suit are our contenders. Looking at an overall picture of these runners, The Cheka has been on a steady decline and so we wouldn’t want to place our money on him. Mayson’s last performance was a decline and there is potential for him to come back. He seems to be very over-priced at the moment and could make a good outside bet.

I will be going against the market in this race with Fire Lily and Mason as each-way bets.I will also monitor Sepoy to see if the market is supporting him and if so he will also be included.

Selections: Fire Lily and Mason each-way with Sepoy if the market is backing him.

3:55 Rossdales E.B.F. Conditions Stakes 6f

An 8 runner race and initially you may think this is an easier race to navigate, however all the runners have only had one or two races before. That is except for Purcell, who will have to use the market to guide us on.

If we look at those runners which have raced over soft going before we get Boomshackerlacker, The Taj and Hasnopop. Boomshackerlacker significantly outperformed the other two runners and so is favoured over them.

Of the rest, Living Desert is on the decline, as is Bircham. Both of those would need to turn around their performance to contend in this race.

Rocky Ground looks very strong, but has only raced over good to firm and the ground condition is going to be anything but that. If he can run like this on the soft then he would be very likely to take this race. However there is doubt about whether this is possible and I would not want to risk money on him until proven on soft ground.

The only selection for me in this race is Bookmshackerlacker each-way.

Selection: Boomshackerlacker each-way.

4:30 Earl Of Euston Nursery 7f

In this 9 runner, 7 furlong race, there are 3 runners who have yet to win a race. I am never comfortable betting on a horse who has never run a race.

That removes Echion, Composed and Getaway Car from our contenders list.

Tommys Secret and Rated have performed significantly worse than the other runners over similar conditions. That leaves us with Kimberella, Janoub Nibras and Oasis Cannes as our contenders.

Kimberella put in an excellent performance on the 17th June at Doncaster but that was a significant improvement over the previous race on the soft. If this form is re-created then there is no doubt that Kimberella is going to be the one to beat. However, it is not certain that this form can be re-produced.

Janoub Nibras is also a potential contender. The concern is that this race is over 2 furlongs longer than the previous race over soft ground and that could make all the difference.

It is difficult to choose between these two runners but the preference is for Kimberella.

Selection: Kimberella is the selection in this race and should be bet each-way. Janoub Nibras must also be considered as a threat and bet to place.

5:05 Celebrating Newmarket – Historic Home Of Horse Racing Handicap 1m 4f

The final race of the meeting sees 17 runners racing around one and a half miles. It is going to be an exciting finish to what has been a difficult but enjoyable meeting.

It is always nice to finish with a winner and I hope that we can find the one in this race to send us off with a bang.

We can immediately reduce the field to 7 runners by removing those who have not had a good race in a long in over 6 months.

If we then look to remove the runners who have produced a poor performance over similar conditions we can remove another 3 runners from our contenders list.

This leaves us with a contender list of John Louis, Haylaman, Inthar and Local Hero.

John Louis looks to be the strongest with the highest figures over the conditions and very strong form strength.

Local Hero has been steadily increasing performance. The volatility of these performances have been steady which gives us confidence that they can be replicated. With one of the strongest form strengths in the race, Local Hero has to be considered as a serious contender.

Haylaman has not proved himself over the going condition and this gives me cause for concern, along with the fact that I think he may not have the class to compete. I shall remove him as a selection.

Inthar is unlikely to have the class to win this race. Combine this with unproven performance over soft going and I would not be comfortable placing my money on him.

This leaves us with two selections in John Louis and Local Hero.

Selection: John Louis and Local Hero as a dutch bet.

Please let me know who you are going to be backing on the final day of Newmarket (July) festival by leaving a comment below.

 

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

22 Comments

    1. @Liam,
      Are you a part owner of these i.e. a 500Club member. I didn’t see a reccomendation to back them.

    2. No information to back them but as you will Know Ian,
      Ron was trying to get as many members of the 500 club to get up to York to support them. I figure it is worth a fiver each way in case they do some good.

      Are you a member too?

  1. With all the rain at HQ and it was raining all Night and all the way through the Morning Line programme, it stopped for a couple of minuets and started again. Sepoy is my only possible bet there and that is if it gets to like the going.

    I think it is going to be a Mud bath and that is not racing, so Keeping my Powder dry seems the best bet.

    York I am going to go Four points each for my two interests at York. Just in case they do something.

    Not been given any info as to chances so I think it is a case of watch and see how they do by the Trainer today, Grandorio is racing for the 1st time.

    1. Good question Phil. It depends on the race but roughly, a good race is where the horse finished in the top 3 or came within 2 lengths of the winner. I extend the distance on longer races.

      1. Afternoon Michael

        I find it difficult to see how you knocked the 5.05 down to seven initially could you run through the eliminated animals please.

        Ta

        1. Afternoon Phil. A very simple process. I don’t like to bet on runners who haven’t put in a good run for a long time. All but 7 of the runners had not had a good run in over 6 months.

        2. Evening Michael

          Looking at either first three or within 2l of winner in last six months how did you scrub,

          Little Rocky Lto 1 at Newbury 13 Jul 2012
          Proud Chieftan 2Lto 2 at Sandown 15 Jun 2012
          Mountain Range Lto 3 at Sandown 15 Jun 2012
          Educate Lto 1 at Yarmouth 28 Jun 2012
          Communicator 3Lto at Epsom 25 Apr 2012
          Sohar 3Lto at Newmarket 23 Jun 2012

          Star Date could also be included if you ignore the unlucky clipping of heels at Epsom on the 2 Jun 2012

          If I add your four contenders that leaves a field shortened to 10/11 using just the basis of your first reply in that the animal finished in the top three or within 2 lengths of the winner in the last six months. That why I find it difficult to see how you dropped to seven at a stroke. Could you explain please.

          Ta

        3. Those rules for elimination were only rough guides, they change dependent on race conditions. I would need to go through the race again to remember exactly the reasons for my choices. But, I ignored the non-runners which took out a few runners (and then more as the day went on). I also was writing the preview before the results from the 13th were in.

  2. The weather is destroying racing so far this year. So your readers know which ones to stay away from today these are my selections.
    1-40 Compton e/w if 8 run
    2-10 Olympic Glory
    2-40 No selection – To many runners !!!!!
    3-20 Mayson e/w
    3-55 No selection
    4-30 Kimberella / Rated rev forcast
    5-05 Snow Hill e/w
    Best of luck to everyone.

      1. “Selections: Fire Lily and Mason each-way with Sepoy if the market is backing him.”

        Please describe the numerical structure of the bet you placed on these selections and how you calculate the stake.

  3. Thank you for sharing your selections. I was very impressed im only sorry i didnt back your selections. I know how hard it is to get winners with the weather as it is at present. I hope you will do this again soon so that i can get involved. Thank you and well done.

  4. Amazing results,I play all you tips at small takes and won still fine.You must start you own tips
    service.

    1. Hi Mikki, many thanks for your comments. I have no plans to at the moment but shall let you know if I do.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back to top button
Close