It’s a fact that different horses have different preferences when it comes to racing.
One of those preferences is the course they’re running at.
In the UK and IRE, every course has very specific characteristics and, with a little bit of extra effort, it’s possible to find if a horse has a preference for the course they’re about to race in.
I’m going to focus on the 7:30pm at Windsor.
Windsor is a flat, right-hand, grade 3, galloping track that has some very tight bends in it. Horse’s who have run here well in the past tend to do well in the future, and late-running horses have a tendency to out-perform other runners.
With that knowledge, we have two methods we can approach the race with. We can look for the strongest horses in the race to back, or we can look for the market favourites and see if we can oppose them.
Intrepidly is currently the market favourite. If we look at his history we can see that…
He has only had one win, this came at Kempton on Slow/Standard ground over 7 furlongs.
Apart from the different distance and ground conditions, Kempton is also a right-handed track with tight turns.
There’s a strong likelihood that the course will suit this runner. However, there is concern that he’s only won a race over a shorter distance and on all-weather.
With reason to look further into his form, we can see that there’s very little to recommend Intrepidly in this race.
Which forces us to ask the question…
Why is he the favourite at the time of writing?
This is most easily found by looking at a few verdicts across different sites such as the Racing Post, Sporting Life and Racing UK.
The reason is… his last race was considered a strong potential run over 1m1f where he came fourth beaten by two lengths,
Not enough for me.
This gives me the perfect opportunity to challenge the current market favourite with the next strongest horses, these look to be:
* Ritas Man
Of these Matorico has potential, but hasn’t raced for a while or on flat, good ground. However, every indicator says he should perform well.
But… Biotic looks to be the one to beat in this race, he’s improving in form and likes the course conditions having won at Windsor before over the same distance and ground.
For me, Biotic is going to be the selection to bet on in this race.
All the best,
The Race Advisor
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