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Profit Lockdown: The Written Explanation

IMPORTANT NOTE: Using this betting system you’ll always be placing VALUE bets!


There are two stages in this strategy, and they are...


1) Selection Finding

2) Placing Your Bets


We shall start with...


1) Selection Finding


Before you begin finding selections, you want to have the following three web pages open:


The calculator:



The website www.oddschecker.com:



The website www.betfair.com:



Open any race in Odds Checker and look for the top four horses in the betting. To do this sort by favourite and the runners will be ordered with the favourite at the top.



Once you've done this you will see the first four favourite horses at the top of the list.



Look for a horse that is coloured blue for every bookmaker, you do not need to take into account three betting exchanges in the last three columns. This means that every single bookmaker is taking money on this horse and it’s being backed in.


In this case, qualifying horse is Lake Shore Drive.



Find the bookmaker with the best price as we’re looking for value. In this case Stan James is offering the best odds at 4/1 (or 5.00).



Now go back to your calculator. Make sure you've put the correct each-way place terms (shown at the bottom of each bookmaker). Stan James are giving 1/5 each-way place terms so we need to make sure that the calculator shows that this is a fifth of the odds, which we have here.



You can change this to a quarter of the odds by clicking in the box and typing 1/4.


Once you’ve input this information into the yellow square, you can see that the Place Price being offered by the bookmaker is 1.80.



If you go to Betfair you can see that Lake Shore Drive is available at 1.71.



You need to put 1.71 in the calculator under the BETFAIR column, we can see that this bet is now value because the VALUE column says 'Yes' and it’s highlighted in green. The EDGE column tells us that our edge is 3%, which is extremely good, and means we’ve got advantage on the bookie.



As you can see, there are two primary steps in selection finding...


1) Focus on the top four only in the market

2) Look for a horse that has all blue on every bookmaker in www.oddschecker.com


You won’t find a selection in every race, but you will find a number of selections each day.


I recommend that you go through the selection finding process a few times to get you familiar with the process. At the end of video above you can see an entire days analysis and how quickly you can do it using this method.


Now we will move on to...


2) Placing Your Bets


There are two options when placing your bets, these are:


1) Bet each-way using a BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) bookmaker

2) Bet each-way using a BOG bookmaker and then lay-off on Betfair


Using this betting system you will find value in 90% or your bets, which means you’ll make a long-term profit by simply betting each-way.


Mathematically, you have to!


However, if you prefer a higher strike rate and lower bankroll requirement, you can choose to lay the sections off in Betfair.


Let’s look at each option now!


1) Bet each-way using BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) Bookmaker


This is very simple to do.


Once you’ve found your selection look for the best odds or the highest odds on www.oddschecker.com.


Use that bookmaker to place your bet by simply place an each way bet on your selection with the bookmaker that is offering the best odds.It’s that simple. You don’t need to do anything else.


2) Bet each-way using BOG Bookmaker and then lay-off on Betfair


This is where we can reduce our risk by laying off the place part on the each way bet.


To do it we go to one of our qualifying races.


We can see here that Magic Applause qualifies as a selection, and the best price we can get is 5.50 with Stan James.



The place price offered by Stan James, based on our calculator, is 1.90. If we go to Betfair we can see that it’s 1.85 to place there.



First we need to go to Stan James and place our bet each way, in this case we’ll assume that we're betting £10 each way.


Once the bet is placed, we need to go back to the calculator and enter 1.85 in BETFAIR column.



We can see that it’s got a 'YES' in the VALUE column, so we need to look at this Lay Stake column here...



You can see above that we need to place a lay bet on the place market in Betfair of £10.27 on the same horse. If your stake is not £10, make sure you change the STAKE row to the right amount you're staking each-way.


This is what our lay bet in the place market on Betfair would look like.



Here's what can happen...



If Magic Applause doesn’t place we would receive nothing back from the bookmaker, but we get just a little under £10, of our original £20 stake with the bookmaker, back through our lay bet in the place market on Betfair. This means we are only risking, on average, around half our stake from the original investment with the bookmaker.



If Magic Applause places we lose £8.73 on Betfair, but we get a return with the bookmaker of £9 meaning a return just a little under the £20 we invested. In this situation we have risked on average half our original stake and only made a small loss.



And this is the scenario we are looking for!


If you like less risk, then this staking can reduce your risk by half and still allow good profits when your selections win.


However, it can get even better because most of the selections odds will drop...


As an option, you can also go to the Betfair Win market:



After you've placed your each-way bet with the bookmaker and your lay bet in the place market on Betfair, if the Betfair Win market Lay Odds have dropped below what you bet with the bookmaker then... 


You can place another lay bet on Betfair in the Win market!


Go back to your calculator and check the required stake to place.



In this example the stake was £10.27. So you would place £10.27 as a lay bet in the Win market. If you do this you will make a clear profit whether Magic Applause wins, places or completely loses.



Here's how it works:


If Magic Applause doesn't place, you lose £20 at the bookmaker, but make a profit of £20.48 from your two lay bets on Betfair.


If Magic Applause places you lose £1 at the bookmaker, but win £1.54 on Betfair. This is made up of your losing place market lay bet of -£8.73 and the profit on your Win market lay bet of £10.24.


If Magic Applause wins then you make £54 profit with bookmaker, and lose your two lay bets of £20.48 on Betfair for a total profit of £33.52.


Please note that this is just an example, in some situations if the horse doesn't win then you may lose a few pennies after Betfair commission, or win a few pennies after Betfair commission. It is dependent on the odds taken, but using this betting method will give you a near no-lose situation if the selection doesn't win.


Both methods of betting work very well.


Due to losing streaks, method #1 will require a larger bankroll than method #2, but method #2 is also lower risk.


In return for having a lower risk and a smaller bankroll, method #2 will produce less profits.


There is no better option.


It’s down to personal preference.


If you don’t like losing streaks and prefer a higher strike rate, I'd recommend you use method #2.


However, if you're happy with a few losing streaks and a larger bankroll, method #1 will perhaps be better for you.

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Downloads/Resources (Click to view or right click to download)

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Download your Excel 2011 and newer worksheet

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Download your Excel 2010 and earlier worksheet

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FAQ

Here are answers to some frequently asked questions:

What bankroll should I have?

When should I place bets?

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